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Newcastle crestNewcastle
v
Everton crestEverton

Premier League | Mon 02 Nov, 20:00

Newcastle v Everton Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 18:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Everton host Newcastle in a pivotal EFL Cup fourth-round clash at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, where Everton's disciplined home defensive structure contrasts with Newcastle's recent away vulnerabilities. Everton have secured three wins in five home league matches, all with clean sheets, showcasing their defensive solidity. Newcastle, despite strong cup pedigree, have struggled defensively on the road, suffering heavy defeats that expose gaps. This tactical battle between Everton's compact defense and Newcastle's open away style sets the stage for a tightly contested match with Everton holding a tangible edge based on recent form and defensive reliability.

BT4Y best bet

Everton Win

  • Everton have won 3 of 5 home league matches this season, all with clean sheets.
  • Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, including heavy 4-1 away defeats.
  • Everton’s EFL Cup run includes a 4-0 win over Preston and a 1-0 win over Wolves, showing defensive strength.
  • Newcastle have strong EFL Cup experience but recent away defensive frailties raise concerns.
  • Head-to-head: Newcastle have won only once in last six meetings, with Everton winning three times.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Everton to win based on their strong home defensive record and Newcastle's recent away defensive struggles. Everton's ability to keep clean sheets at home and Newcastle's tendency to concede multiple goals away underpin the in Everton's victory. While Newcastle's cup experience is notable, Everton's recent form and defensive compactness provide a more reliable foundation. The model is moderate, reflecting some uncertainty due to Newcastle's cup pedigree and potential for an open game. No price warning is necessary as the align with the .

Everton Home Defensive Record3 clean sheets in 5 home league matches
Strong positive
Newcastle Away Defensive IssuesConceded 4 goals twice in recent away matches
Strong positive
Cup ExperienceNewcastle won 18 EFL Cup ties since 2022-23
Neutral
Head-to-HeadNewcastle won 1 of last 6 meetings
Positive
Recent FormEverton 5 points, Newcastle 6 points in last 5 matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Everton's disciplined defensive approach at home and recent clean sheets give them a tactical edge over Newcastle, who have shown defensive vulnerabilities away from home. The data supports Everton's likelihood to capitalize on these weaknesses, making an Everton win a sound selection for this cup tie.

Main risk

The primary risk to this selection stems from Everton’s recent collective struggles.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Everton's home defensive solidity combined with Newcastle's recent away defensive lapses creates a clear tactical pathway for Everton to secure victory in this crucial cup fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Everton Win evidence

Everton have won 3 of 5 home league matches this season, all with clean sheets.

Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 5 matches, including heavy 4-1 away defeats.

Everton’s EFL Cup run includes a 4-0 win over Preston and a 1-0 win over Wolves, showing defensive strength.

Newcastle have strong EFL Cup experience but recent away defensive frailties raise concerns.

What To Watch In The Data

Everton Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3, with Newcastle's away games frequently featuring over 2.5 goals.
  • This trend reflects Newcastle's open play style away from home and Everton's ability to engage in higher tempo matches when defensive gaps appear, supporting potential for goals but balanced by Everton's defensive discipline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle1.2
Avg goals scored
Everton0.6
Newcastle2
Avg goals conceded
Everton1.2
Newcastle60%
BTTS rate
Everton20%
Newcastle60%
Over 2.5 goals
Everton20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 48% · edge +7.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Goal and BTTS trends highlight Newcastle's propensity for high-scoring away games, with 60% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rate, contrasting Everton's more conservative 20% rates. This suggests potential for an open game if Newcastle's defensive gaps persist, but Everton's low scoring limits the likelihood of a high goal total.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 35% · edge +1.8 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Everton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 36.3% for Everton Win sits against roughly 34.5% implied by the current price (+1.8 pts). Newcastle have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Everton. For this leg to succeed, the match must produce at least three total goals, a threshold that finds strong support in Newcastle’s recent travelling.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Crystal Palace2-0
17 Oct 2026H Aston Villa0-1
12 Oct 2026A Coventry1-4
19 Sep 2026H Hull City2-1
14 Sep 2026A Leeds1-4

Everton

LLDWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 2L
24 Oct 2026A Arsenal0-2
17 Oct 2026H Chelsea0-2
11 Oct 2026A Hull City2-2
19 Sep 2026H Ipswich1-0
12 Sep 2026A Tottenham0-0
Market aligned with main pickEverton to WinBet365 guide price · Model 36% vs implied 35% · edge +1.8 pts
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Everton Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Recent form data shows Newcastle with 6 points and Everton with 5 points from their last five matches, reflecting closely matched momentum. Newcastle's higher goals conceded (2 per match) versus Everton's 1.2 suggests defensive frailties that Everton could exploit, reinforcing the home side's advantage in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Newcastle Over 2.5
20%Everton Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 3, with Newcastle's away games frequently featuring over 2.5 goals. This trend reflects Newcastle's open play style away from home and Everton's ability to engage in higher tempo matches when defensive gaps appear, supporting potential for goals but balanced by Everton's defensive discipline.

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