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Derby crestDerby
v
Norwich crestNorwich

Championship | Tue 03 Nov, 19:45

Derby v Norwich Stats

Data last updated: Mon 02 Nov 2026, 12:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Norwich travel to face Derby in a Championship clash where Norwich hold a clear advantage in recent form and league position. Norwich have accumulated 15 points compared to Derby's 7, showing more consistent attacking output with 1.4 goals per game versus Derby's 0.8. Derby's defensive struggles, conceding 2.2 goals per match, contrast with Norwich's tighter defense allowing 1.4 goals. Norwich's more balanced form and superior squad depth set the stage for a confident away performance in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Norwich to Win

  • Norwich have a 66.4% to win, with positive value at 2.05 .
  • Derby have scored only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Norwich average 1.4 goals.
  • Derby concede 2.2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerability against Norwich's attack.
  • Norwich rank 15th with 15 points; Derby sit 23rd with 7 points, reflecting form gap.
  • Norwich's top attackers like M. Musaba show strong goal threat and shot accuracy.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Norwich to win due to their superior recent form, better goal-scoring rate, and more stable defense compared to Derby. Norwich's attacking players, including M. Touré with nearly a goal per game and solid shot accuracy, provide a strong offensive threat. Derby's defensive record and low scoring rate reduce their chances. The model's 66.4% win probability reflects these factors, making Norwich a solid pick without price warnings or data limitations.

Recent FormNorwich have 6 points in recent matches vs Derby's 2
Strong positive
Goal ScoringNorwich 1.4 goals/game, Derby 0.8 goals/game
Strong positive
Defensive RecordDerby concede 2.2 goals/game, Norwich 1.4
Positive
Player QualityM. Touré scores 0.99 goals/90 with 1.18 SOT/90
Strong positive
League PositionNorwich 15th (15 pts), Derby 23rd (7 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Norwich's stronger recent form and attacking efficiency make them the likely winners against a struggling Derby side. Their ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline provides a tactical edge, supported by data showing a clear quality gap and better league standing.

Main risk

However, the hosts are rarely airtight at the back.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · attacking and defensive quality

“Norwich's attacking trio, led by M. Touré, offers a consistent goal threat that Derby's porous defense will struggle to contain. This combination of offensive firepower and defensive solidity gives Norwich a clear advantage in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Norwich to Win evidence

Norwich have a 66.4% to win, with positive value at 2.05 .

Derby have scored only 0.8 goals per game recently, while Norwich average 1.4 goals.

Derby concede 2.2 goals per match, indicating defensive vulnerability against Norwich's attack.

Norwich rank 15th with 15 points; Derby sit 23rd with 7 points, reflecting form gap.

What To Watch In The Data

Norwich to Win notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, suggesting a moderately open fixture.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Derby 40%, Norwich 60%) indicate a reasonable chance of goals, supporting a competitive, goal-involved match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derby0.8
Avg goals scored
Norwich1.4
Derby2.2
Avg goals conceded
Norwich1.4
Derby80%
BTTS rate
Norwich60%
Derby40%
Over 2.5 goals
Norwich60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 49%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form shows Norwich average 1.4 goals per game while Derby score 0.8, with both teams scoring in 60-80% of matches respectively. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals with a balanced BTTS profile, supporting an open game but not necessarily high-scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derby

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
31 Oct 2026A Millwall1-4
24 Oct 2026A Sheffield Utd1-1
17 Oct 2026H Stoke City0-1
14 Oct 2026A QPR1-4
10 Oct 2026H Wrexham1-1

Norwich

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
31 Oct 2026H Watford3-2
24 Oct 2026A Charlton3-1
17 Oct 2026H Portsmouth0-1
14 Oct 2026H Southampton0-1
10 Oct 2026A Swansea1-2
Market aligned with main pickNorwich to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Norwich Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Norwich have collected 15 points this season with a more consistent goal output and defensive record than Derby, who have only 7 points and concede heavily. This recent form disparity underpins Norwich's favored status and suggests momentum is on their side.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNorwich to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Norwich Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 63.8% for Norwich to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Norwich have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby. Norwich boast a significant home advantage, having won three of their last six at Carrow Road.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Derby Over 2.5
60%Norwich Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.7, suggesting a moderately open fixture. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Derby 40%, Norwich 60%) indicate a reasonable chance of goals, supporting a competitive, goal-involved match.

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