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Fiorentina crestFiorentina

Serie A | Mon 02 Nov, 17:30

Sassuolo v Fiorentina Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 16:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Fiorentina host Sassuolo in a Serie A clash where survival meets ambition. Fiorentina have lost just once in their last nine home league matches, showing defensive solidity with three clean sheets in their last four at the Franchi. They aim to convert stability into wins to secure safety. Sassuolo, having secured their top-flight status comfortably, chase a top-half finish but struggle with slow starts and defensive lapses, conceding early in six consecutive matches. The tactical battle will hinge on Fiorentina's structured defense against Sassuolo's attacking freedom and transition threat, with key absences on both sides shaping the contest.

BT4Y match pick

Sassuolo Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Fiorentina lost only once in last nine home league matches, showing strong defensive form.
  • Sassuolo have conceded in each of their last ten away games, highlighting defensive vulnerability.
  • Sassuolo’s last three away games featured at least three goals, indicating open play potential.
  • Fiorentina’s goals are widely shared, with eight different scorers in last eight league goals.
  • Sassuolo’s slow starts often lead to early goals conceded, a key tactical factor.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees Sassuolo Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a plausible outcome given Fiorentina's defensive resilience at home and Sassuolo's attacking quality balanced by their defensive frailties. The at 6.5 (11/2) imply a 15.4% chance, which is slightly higher than the model's 10.6% chance, suggesting cautious staking. Fiorentina's tendency to draw and Sassuolo's consistent scoring but leaky defense support a low-scoring Sassuolo win. The data quality is solid with comprehensive stats for both teams, reinforcing in the tactical and statistical rationale.

Model Chance10.6% model chance vs 15.4% implied (-4.8 pts)
Positive
Implied Chance10.6% model chance vs 15.4% implied (-4.8 pts)
Neutral
Fiorentina Home Defensive FormStrong (3 clean sheets in last 4)
Positive
Sassuolo Away Defensive RecordWeak (conceded in 10 consecutive away games)
Positive
Price Sensitivity10.6% model chance vs 15.4% implied (-4.8 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Sassuolo’s attacking threat combined with Fiorentina’s defensive solidity at home creates a scenario where Sassuolo can edge a tight game. Fiorentina’s resilience and shared scoring make a low-scoring contest likely, but Sassuolo’s ability to exploit early defensive lapses could secure a narrow victory. This pick balances tactical nuance with recent form data.

Main risk

Earlier in the season, the Franchi was far from a fortress, but recent weeks have seen a noticeable change.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and scoring

“Sassuolo’s freedom to attack and Fiorentina’s defensive discipline set up a fascinating clash where a cautious Sassuolo win under 2.5 goals is a compelling tactical and statistical angle.”

Key Data Signals

Sassuolo Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Fiorentina lost only once in last nine home league matches, showing strong defensive form.

Sassuolo have conceded in each of their last ten away games, highlighting defensive vulnerability.

Sassuolo’s last three away games featured at least three goals, indicating open play potential.

Fiorentina’s goals are widely shared, with eight different scorers in last eight league goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Sassuolo Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sassuolo1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Fiorentina1.2
    Sassuolo3
    Avg goals conceded
    Fiorentina2
    Sassuolo80%
    BTTS rate
    Fiorentina100%
    Sassuolo60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fiorentina80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 64% · edge +10.5 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 56%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 30%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Both teams have shown tendencies for goals but also defensive caution. Fiorentina’s recent home clean sheets contrast with Sassuolo’s consistent away concessions. Fiorentina’s goals are spread across many players, making them unpredictable, while Sassuolo’s attacking threat is balanced by their habit of conceding early. This dynamic supports a low-scoring game with both teams likely to score but under 2.5 goals overall.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 50% · edge -5 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Sassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    The 10.6% for Sassuolo Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 15.4% implied by the current price (-4.8 pts). While Fiorentina are strong at home, they have drawn their last few fixtures and found it difficult to finish games off.

    Continue the research

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sassuolo

    LLLDL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 2D 5L
    27 Oct 2026H Lazio2-6
    24 Oct 2026A Como0-2
    16 Oct 2026A Frosinone2-4
    11 Oct 2026H AC Milan1-1
    18 Sep 2026A Monza1-2

    Fiorentina

    DLLLD
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 6L
    29 Oct 2026H Atalanta2-2
    25 Oct 2026A Inter1-2
    18 Oct 2026H Como1-3
    10 Oct 2026A Genoa1-2
    20 Sep 2026H Napoli1-1
    Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 64% · edge -2.8 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Sassuolo Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Sassuolo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.88
    Check odds @ 2.88
    Fiorentina have gained 2 points recently with a 1-1 draw, extending an unbeaten run to six matches, reflecting growing resilience. Sassuolo’s form shows just 1 point recently, with defensive lapses evident in conceding three goals per game. Fiorentina’s improved home defense contrasts with Sassuolo’s away struggles, suggesting Fiorentina’s form edge but Sassuolo’s attacking threat keeps the contest open and low scoring.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Sassuolo Over 2.5
    80%Fiorentina Over 2.5
    3.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Sassuolo and 80% for Fiorentina, so the goals market needs both rate and chance quality.

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