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GIL Vicente crestGIL Vicente
v
Vitória SC crestVitória SC

Primeira Liga | Mon 02 Nov, 20:15

GIL Vicente v Vitória SC Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 20:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC meet in a Primeira Liga clash where both teams have shown moderate scoring form and a tendency towards tighter matches. GIL Vicente, positioned 7th, have scored and conceded just over one goal per game recently, while Vitória SC, sitting 13th, also average around 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. Both sides have a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, reflecting a balanced approach with neither side pushing aggressively for high-scoring encounters. This match is likely to be a tactical battle with controlled attacking intent and defensive discipline.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average around 1 to 1.4 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
  • GIL Vicente and Vitória SC each have a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, suggesting lower scoring frequency.
  • Recent form shows GIL Vicente scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.2 per game, Vitória SC scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.
  • Average shots on target are moderate, with Vitória SC at 5.6 and GIL Vicente at 3, indicating limited clear chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 65.2% chance, reflecting the teams' moderate scoring rates and defensive solidity. Both sides have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, below league averages, supporting a lower scoring outcome. Shot data shows Vitória SC creates more chances but GIL Vicente's defense limits clear opportunities. The model sees value as the implied market chance is 60.6%, below the model's 65.2%, indicating a slight edge. No warnings apply, and standard staking is advised.

Model Probability65.2% model chance vs 60.6% implied (+4.6 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance65.2% model chance vs 60.6% implied (+4.6 pts)
Positive
Teams' Over 2.5 Rate40% each, below league average
Positive
Shots on TargetModerate, limiting high scoring chances
Positive
Main risk

However, their attacking limitations remain concerning.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“This fixture looks set for a tactical, low-scoring encounter with both sides showing defensive discipline and moderate attacking threat. The Under 2.5 Goals market aligns well with the teams' recent patterns and shot profiles.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average around 1 to 1.4 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.

GIL Vicente and Vitória SC each have a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, suggesting lower scoring frequency.

Recent form shows GIL Vicente scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.2 per game, Vitória SC scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.

Average shots on target are moderate, with Vitória SC at 5.6 and GIL Vicente at 3, indicating limited clear chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game, slightly below typical over 2.5 thresholds.
  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a trend towards controlled scoring.
  • This trend panel indicates the match is more likely to stay under 2.5 goals due to tactical caution and defensive organization on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

GIL Vicente1
Avg goals scored
Vitória SC1.4
GIL Vicente1.2
Avg goals conceded
Vitória SC1
GIL Vicente60%
BTTS rate
Vitória SC40%
GIL Vicente40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vitória SC40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 61% · edge +4.6 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals and mixed BTTS rates (GIL Vicente 60%, Vitória SC 40%), suggesting that while goals are not rare, matches often remain low scoring. The average goals per game hover around 2.3 in their head-to-head, reinforcing the likelihood of a lower scoring contest with occasional goals from either side.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 51% · edge +12 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
GIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Vitória SC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Vitória SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 39%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 65.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60.6% implied by the current price (+4.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for GIL Vicente and 40% for Vitória SC, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Yes, his suspension forces Gil Vicente to reorganise defence, increasing chances of Vitória scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

GIL Vicente

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026H FC Porto0-1
19 Oct 2026A SC Braga2-1
09 Oct 2026A Moreirense1-0
19 Sep 2026H Maritimo1-1
13 Sep 2026A Benfica1-3

Vitória SC

WLDLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
23 Oct 2026H Maritimo5-0
11 Oct 2026A Benfica0-2
20 Sep 2026H Moreirense1-1
12 Sep 2026A Academico Viseu1-2
06 Sep 2026H Casa Pia0-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 67% · edge +9.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
GIL Vicente to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
GIL Vicente Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Vitória SC to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Vitória SC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
DrawBetUK guide price · model 29%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Recent form data shows GIL Vicente scoring 1 goal and conceding 1.2 per match, while Vitória SC scores 1.4 and concedes 1. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating a tendency towards matches with fewer goals. This form supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection as both sides demonstrate balanced attacking and defensive performances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%GIL Vicente Over 2.5
40%Vitória SC Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals per game, slightly below typical over 2.5 thresholds. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a trend towards controlled scoring. This trend panel indicates the match is more likely to stay under 2.5 goals due to tactical caution and defensive organization on both sides.

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