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Benfica crestBenfica
v
Alverca crestAlverca

Primeira Liga | Mon 02 Nov, 20:15

Benfica v Alverca Stats

Data last updated: Sun 01 Nov 2026, 19:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica faces Alverca in a Primeira Liga clash where both teams have shown a tendency to find the net recently. Benfica, sitting second in the league, boasts a potent attack averaging 2.4 goals per game, while Alverca, ninth, also maintains a respectable 1.8 goals scored per match. Both sides have conceded around one goal per game, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities. The fixture promises open play with Benfica's aggressive style and Alverca's resilience, setting the stage for a contest where both teams are likely to score.

BT4Y match pick

Alverca Asian Handicap +2.25

  • Benfica averages 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate this season.
  • Alverca scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes about one per match.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches featuring goals from both sides.
  • Recent form shows Benfica with 12 points and Alverca with 9 points in last matches.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3 goals, indicating open games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 73.3% chance for both teams to score, supported by Benfica's high attacking output and Alverca's consistent goal-scoring record. Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate this season, and recent matches show a healthy average of goals scored and conceded. The price offers positive value with a 24.5% edge, reflecting the likelihood of an open game where both sides find the net. No data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection.

Benfica attack strength2.4 goals per game, 60% BTTS rate
Strong positive
Alverca scoring consistency1.8 goals per game, 60% BTTS rate
Positive
Recent formBenfica 12 points, Alverca 9 points
Positive
Head-to-head goal average3 goals per match
Positive
Price value edge55.1% model chance vs 55.6% implied (-0.5 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open encounter as Benfica's attacking prowess meets Alverca's willingness to press forward. Benfica's high goal output and Alverca's consistent scoring form suggest both teams will find the net, making the BTTS bet a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

However, the opening-day draw against newly promoted Academico de Viseu remains a reminder that Benfica cannot afford complacency, particularly with Porto already holding a significant advantage.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Benfica's dynamic forward line combined with Alverca's persistent attacking approach creates a scenario ripe for goals at both ends. This match-up naturally leans towards both teams scoring given their offensive tendencies and defensive gaps.”

Key Data Signals

Alverca Asian Handicap +2.25 evidence

Benfica averages 2.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate this season.

Alverca scores 1.8 goals per game and concedes about one per match.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches featuring goals from both sides.

Recent form shows Benfica with 12 points and Alverca with 9 points in last matches.

What To Watch In The Data

Alverca Asian Handicap +2.25 notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating open encounters with multiple goals.
  • Both teams' recent matches also show high over 2.5 goals rates (Benfica 80%, Alverca 60%), suggesting a fast tempo and attacking intent that favors goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica2.4
Avg goals scored
Alverca1.8
Benfica1
Avg goals conceded
Alverca1
Benfica60%
BTTS rate
Alverca60%
Benfica80%
Over 2.5 goals
Alverca60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Both Benfica and Alverca have a 60% rate of matches featuring goals from both teams this season, underscoring their offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. Benfica averages 2.4 goals per game while conceding one, and Alverca scores 1.8 per match with similar concession rates, supporting a high probability of BTTS and multiple goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Alverca to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
13
Check odds @ 13
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
8
Check odds @ 8
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
The 55.1% for Alverca Asian Handicap +2.25 sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (-0.5 pts). With Benfica scoring multiple goals in five successive matches, Alverca face a demanding defensive assignment.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Primeira Liga fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 1L
26 Oct 2026A Santa Clara2-1
11 Oct 2026H Vitória SC2-0
20 Sep 2026A FC Porto1-3
13 Sep 2026H GIL Vicente3-1
09 Sep 2026A Moreirense4-0

Alverca

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Arouca0-1
12 Oct 2026A Famalicao4-1
19 Sep 2026H Rio Ave1-0
12 Sep 2026A Nacional3-1
05 Sep 2026H SC Braga1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 35% vs implied 20% · edge +15 pts
5
Check odds @ 5
Load more odds for this section
Alverca to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
13
Check odds @ 13
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 85%
1.04
Check odds @ 1.04
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
8
Check odds @ 8
Benfica to WinBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Recent form data shows Benfica securing 12 points with an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, while Alverca has 9 points and a 60% over 2.5 rate. Both teams maintain a 60% BTTS rate in recent matches, reinforcing the expectation of goals at both ends and supporting the BTTS selection.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Benfica Over 2.5
60%Alverca Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating open encounters with multiple goals. Both teams' recent matches also show high over 2.5 goals rates (Benfica 80%, Alverca 60%), suggesting a fast tempo and attacking intent that favors goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

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