Football Stats Hub

Lorient crestLorient
v
Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29

Ligue 1 | Sat 31 Oct, 19:45

Lorient v Stade Brestois 29 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 30 Oct 2026, 16:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lorient hosts Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 clash where both sides seek to climb the table. Lorient currently sits 9th with 12 points, showing solid defensive form conceding just 0.8 goals per game recently. Stade Brestois 29, 13th with 9 points, have struggled to convert chances despite higher shot volumes. Lorient's tactical discipline and home advantage set a competitive stage, with Brest aiming to break their recent scoring inconsistency. The match promises tactical battles in midfield and a test of Lorient's defensive resilience against Brest's attacking attempts.

BT4Y best bet

Lorient to Win

  • Lorient holds a 58.3% to win, priced at 2.45 offering strong value.
  • Lorient concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, showing defensive solidity.
  • Stade Brestois 29 averages 12.8 shots per game but struggles to convert chances.
  • Recent form favors Lorient with 8 points from last matches versus Brest's 4 points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Lorient to win with a 58.3% chance, significantly above the implied market chance of 40.8%, indicating clear value at 2.45 . Lorient's recent defensive strength, conceding only 0.8 goals per match, contrasts with Brest's higher goals conceded and lower points tally. Despite Brest's higher shot volume, their conversion inefficiency and Lorient's home form underpin the model's . This pick is supported by solid recent form and defensive metrics, making it a compelling choice without price sensitivity concerns.

Model Chance55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance55.8% model chance vs 40.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Lorient Defensive Form0.8 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Stade Brestois 29 Shot Volume12.8 shots per game but low conversion
Negative
Recent Form PointsLorient 8 vs Brest 4
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lorient's disciplined defensive record and home advantage make them the tactical favorite to secure victory. Their recent form and ability to limit chances against them provide a strong foundation, while Stade Brestois 29's inefficiency in front of goal reduces their threat level, supporting a confident home win selection.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Lorient's solid defensive organization and home form create a strong platform for victory, especially against a Brest side that struggles to convert chances despite high shot numbers.”

Key Data Signals

Lorient to Win evidence

Lorient holds a 58.3% to win, priced at 2.45 offering strong value.

Lorient concedes only 0.8 goals per game recently, showing defensive solidity.

Stade Brestois 29 averages 12.8 shots per game but struggles to convert chances.

Recent form favors Lorient with 8 points from last matches versus Brest's 4 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Lorient to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4, indicating moderately open games.
  • Brest's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggests they tend to be involved in higher-scoring matches, but Lorient's defensive solidity may suppress this trend in the upcoming fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lorient1
Avg goals scored
Stade Brestois 291.6
Lorient0.8
Avg goals conceded
Stade Brestois 291.4
Lorient40%
BTTS rate
Stade Brestois 2980%
Lorient40%
Over 2.5 goals
Stade Brestois 2960%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 57% · edge +12.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams show contrasting offensive profiles: Lorient has a lower BTTS rate at 40% and a modest over 2.5 goals rate of 40%, while Brest has a higher BTTS rate of 80% and over 2.5 goals rate at 60%. This suggests a match where Lorient may control scoring opportunities, potentially limiting Brest's goal threat.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLorient to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Lorient Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 55.8% for Lorient to Win sits against roughly 40.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Lorient have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 4 for Stade Brestois 29.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lorient

DWWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 2L
25 Oct 2026A Angers0-0
18 Oct 2026H Monaco1-0
10 Oct 2026H Paris FC1-0
19 Sep 2026A Le Mans1-2
12 Sep 2026H Toulouse2-2

Stade Brestois 29

LDWLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 3L
23 Oct 2026H Nice1-2
17 Oct 2026A Lille1-1
10 Oct 2026H Angers5-1
20 Sep 2026A Auxerre1-2
13 Sep 2026H Paris Saint Germain0-1
Market aligned with main pickLorient to WinBet365 guide price · Model 56% vs implied 41% · edge +15 pts
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Lorient Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Lorient's recent form shows 8 points gained with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game, reflecting effective match control. Brest's 4 points and 1.6 goals conceded per game highlight defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistent results, favoring Lorient's chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Lorient Over 2.5
60%Stade Brestois 29 Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals scored is 2.4, indicating moderately open games. Brest's higher over 2.5 goals rate (60%) suggests they tend to be involved in higher-scoring matches, but Lorient's defensive solidity may suppress this trend in the upcoming fixture.

Loading deeper match data…