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Slovakia crestSlovakia
v
Montenegro crestMontenegro

Friendlies | Fri 05 Jun, 17:30

Slovakia v Montenegro Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovakia face Montenegro in Friendlies on Fri 05 Jun, 17:30. Francesco Calzona’s four-year spell ended after Slovakia fell short in their World Cup bid, losing to Kosovo in the UEFA playoff semi-finals after finishing second behind Germany in Group A.

BT4Y best bet

Mandates that both participating sides score at least one goal during regular time (90 minutes plus injury time)

  • At 7/1, Slovakia Win implies roughly 13%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Slovakia hold distinct favoritism at home given their higher ranking profile, while Montenegro represent an outside threat on the break.
  • Slovakia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovakia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Slovakia Win sits against roughly 13% implied by the current price. Slovakia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovakia Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Slovakia hold distinct favoritism at home given their higher ranking profile, while Montenegro represent an outside threat on the break.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 13% implied
Strong positive
Slovakia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Slovakia hold distinct favoritism at home given their higher.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Slovakia Win is the preferred angle because slovakia hold distinct favoritism at home given their higher ranking profile, while Montenegro represent an outside threat on the break. Slovakia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovakia Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Slovakia carry superior individual talent in advanced positions to break the low block but remain susceptible to counter-attacks without Skriniar.

Main risk

Slovakia carry superior individual talent in advanced positions to break the low block but remain susceptible to counter-attacks without Skriniar.

Key Data Signals

Slovakia Win evidence

Slovakia hold distinct favoritism at home given their higher ranking profile, while Montenegro represent an outside threat on.

Slovakia have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.5 conceded per match, which helps the Slovakia Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Slovakia Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Slovakia2
    Avg goals scored
    Montenegro1.67
    Slovakia0.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Montenegro1
    Slovakia50%
    BTTS rate
    Montenegro33%
    Slovakia50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Montenegro33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 50% · edge +11 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Slovakia

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    01 Jun 2026H Malta2-1
    31 Mar 2026H Romania2-0

    Montenegro

    WLW
    Last 52W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 1L
    01 Jun 2026A Bulgaria1-0
    31 Mar 2026H Slovenia2-3
    27 Mar 2026H Andorra2-0
    Market aligned with main pickSlovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
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    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 77%
    1.11
    Check odds @ 1.11
    Slovakia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSlovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Slovakia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Slovakia to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Slovakia-
    Avg corners for
    Montenegro9
    Slovakia-
    Avg total corners
    Montenegro10
    Slovakia-
    Avg yellow cards
    Montenegro0
    Slovakia-
    Avg shots
    Montenegro0
    Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 58% · edge +17.2 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Slovakia wins
    1Draws
    0Montenegro wins
    17 Nov 2022Montenegro v Slovakia2-2
    Market aligned with main pickSlovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 61%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Slovakia to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Slovakia3
    Played
    Montenegro4
    Slovakia2
    Avg goals for
    Montenegro1.8
    Slovakia1
    Avg goals against
    Montenegro1.3
    Slovakia1
    Clean sheets
    Montenegro2
    Market aligned with main pickSlovakia to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 63% · edge -14.5 pts
    1.6
    Check odds @ 1.6
    Load more odds for this section
    Slovakia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Season data supports Slovakia to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Slovakia Over 2.5
    33%Montenegro Over 2.5
    4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Slovakia sit at 50% and Montenegro sit at 33% with the H2H average at 4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.