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Northern Ireland crestNorthern Ireland
v
Guinea crestGuinea

Friendlies | Thu 04 Jun, 17:00

Northern Ireland v Guinea Stats

Data last updated: Wed 24 Jun 2026, 06:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Northern Ireland face Guinea in Friendlies on Thu 04 Jun, 17:00. Guinea have won fifty percent of their last six away matches, but failed to score in their recent fixture against Benin. Northern Ireland are formidable on home soil, securing victories in 75% of their last four matches in front of familiar crowds.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 5/1, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 17%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • Their last five games produced scorelines of 1-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-1.
  • Northern Ireland are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Guinea at 1.
  • BTTS rates of 100% for Northern Ireland and 50% for Guinea show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 17% implied by the current price. Northern Ireland are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Guinea at 1. Their last five games produced scorelines of 1-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-1.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 17% implied
Strong positive
Northern Ireland are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive
BTTS rates of 100% for Northern Ireland and 50%.Visible data support
Positive
Their last five games produced scorelines of 1-1, 0-2.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because their last five games produced scorelines of 1-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-1. Northern Ireland are carrying more of the scoring load at that scoring level per match, with Guinea at 1. The score matters, but the bigger picture often matters more.

Main risk

The score matters, but the bigger picture often matters more.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Their last five games produced scorelines of 1-1, 0-2, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-1.

Northern Ireland are carrying more of the scoring load at 1 goals per match, with Guinea at 1.

BTTS rates of 100% for Northern Ireland and 50% for Guinea show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Northern Ireland1
Avg goals scored
Guinea1
Northern Ireland1
Avg goals conceded
Guinea1.5
Northern Ireland100%
BTTS rate
Guinea50%
Northern Ireland0%
Over 2.5 goals
Guinea50%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 0% for Northern Ireland and 50% for Guinea, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 48% · edge +28.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Guinea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Guinea to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Northern Ireland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Northern Ireland2
Avg corners for
Guinea-
Northern Ireland7
Avg total corners
Guinea-
Northern Ireland1
Avg yellow cards
Guinea-
Northern Ireland10
Avg shots
Guinea-
Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 35% vs implied 48% · edge -12.6 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Northern Ireland

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
31 Mar 2026A Wales1-1

Guinea

LD
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
31 Mar 2026H Benin0-1
27 Mar 2026H Togo2-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 61% · edge +7.1 pts
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
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Guinea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Guinea to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Northern Ireland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Northern Ireland wins
0Draws
0Guinea wins
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 48% · edge +28.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Guinea to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for BTTS Yes, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Friendlies

Northern Ireland3
Played
Guinea3
Northern Ireland1
Avg goals for
Guinea0.7
Northern Ireland1.3
Avg goals against
Guinea1.3
Northern Ireland1
Clean sheets
Guinea0
Best odds for this sectionGuinea Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 42% · edge +6.7 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Guinea to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Northern Ireland to WinBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Northern Ireland Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Season data supports Guinea Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Northern Ireland Over 2.5
50%Guinea Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Northern Ireland sit at 0% and Guinea sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Northern Ireland v Guinea prediction

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Betting context

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