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Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid
v
Girona crestGirona

La Liga | Sun 17 May, 18:00

Atletico Madrid v Girona Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Madrid face Girona in La Liga on Sun 17 May, 18:00. Atletico Madrid have strong home form with 43 points at the Metropolitano, but they have failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last seven home league matches.

BT4Y best bet

Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS

  • At 23/10, Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS implies roughly 30%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 69%.
  • Atletico Madrid remain an intimidating force at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, securing consistent output in front of their home support.
  • Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Atletico Madrid on 9 and Girona on 2.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Atletico Madrid and 80% for Girona.
  • Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.8 for Atletico Madrid and 1 for Girona are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 69% for Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS sits against roughly 30% implied by the current price. Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Atletico Madrid on 9 and Girona on 2. Atletico Madrid remain an intimidating force at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, securing consistent output in front of their home support.

Model chance vs price69% model chance against roughly 30% implied
Strong positive
Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Atletico Madrid remain an intimidating force at the Riyadh.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because atletico Madrid remain an intimidating force at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, securing consistent output in front of their home support. Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Atletico Madrid on 9 and Girona on 2. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS evidence

Atletico Madrid remain an intimidating force at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano, securing consistent output in front of their.

Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Atletico Madrid on 9 and Girona on 2.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Atletico Madrid and 80% for Girona.

Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.8 for Atletico Madrid and 1 for Girona are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico Madrid6
Avg corners for
Girona4.6
Atletico Madrid9.25
Avg total corners
Girona8.4
Atletico Madrid2.25
Avg yellow cards
Girona2
Atletico Madrid12.75
Avg shots
Girona13.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +5.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 57% · edge +16.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Atletico Madrid to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Madrid1.8
Avg goals scored
Girona1
Atletico Madrid1.4
Avg goals conceded
Girona1.6
Atletico Madrid60%
BTTS rate
Girona80%
Atletico Madrid60%
Over 2.5 goals
Girona40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 59% · edge +17.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Madrid

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
12 May 2026A Osasuna2-1
09 May 2026H Celta Vigo0-1
02 May 2026A Valencia2-0
25 Apr 2026H Athletic Club3-2
22 Apr 2026A Elche2-3

Girona

DDLLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
14 May 2026H Real Sociedad1-1
11 May 2026A Rayo Vallecano1-1
01 May 2026H Mallorca0-1
25 Apr 2026A Valencia1-2
21 Apr 2026H Real Betis2-3
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 57% · edge +16.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7Atletico Madrid wins
2Draws
1Girona wins
21 Dec 2025Girona v Atletico Madrid0-3
25 May 2025Girona v Atletico Madrid0-4
25 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid v Girona3-0
13 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid v Girona3-1
03 Jan 2024Girona v Atletico Madrid4-3
13 Mar 2023Girona v Atletico Madrid0-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 57% · edge +16.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample gives context for Atletico Madrid to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Season team stats

La Liga

Atletico Madrid38
Played
Girona38
Atletico Madrid1.6
Avg goals for
Girona1
Atletico Madrid1.2
Avg goals against
Girona1.4
Atletico Madrid14
Clean sheets
Girona6
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 57% · edge +16.9 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Season data supports Atletico Madrid to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
4Atletico Madrid69382161118
19Girona413891415-16
Atletico Madrid sit in position 4, while Girona sit in position 19, so table pressure belongs in the Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS assessment.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
40%Girona Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Atletico Madrid sit at 60% and Girona sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.