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Almeria crestAlmeria
v
Castellón crestCastellón

Segunda División | Tue 09 Jun, 20:00

Almeria v Castellón Stats

Data last updated: Sat 13 Jun 2026, 13:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Almeria and Castellón face off in a crucial Segunda División fixture where both sides are pushing for strong finishes in the table. Almeria, sitting third with 74 points, have shown some defensive vulnerabilities recently, while Castellón, sixth with 72 points, have been more consistent in attack. Both teams have attacking midfielders and forwards capable of creating chances, setting up a contest likely to feature goals at both ends. The tactical setup suggests open play with opportunities for both sides to score, making goal-scoring a key factor in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Almeria and Castellón have a combined BTTS rate of 70%, indicating frequent mutual scoring.
  • Both teams average around 17 shots per game, showing offensive intent.
  • Castellón’s higher corner average (7.4) suggests sustained attacking pressure.
  • Recent form shows Castellón scoring more frequently, with 1.2 goals per game versus Almeria’s 0.8.
  • Head-to-head matches average 3.43 goals, supporting an open game with goals at both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by strong attacking stats from both sides. Almeria and Castellón each average over 17 shots per match and have decent BTTS rates (60% and 80% respectively). Their head-to-head history shows high scoring games, averaging 3.43 goals per match. This suggests a match dynamic favoring goals from both teams, reinforced by midfielders and forwards with solid goal threat and shot volume. No price warning is needed, making this a standard pick based on balanced offensive and defensive profiles.

Model BTTS Chance76%
Strong positive
Almeria BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Castellón BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Average Shots per Game~17 each
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.43 goals per match
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown consistent attacking threat and the ability to score in recent matches, making both teams to score a logical choice. Almeria’s slightly weaker defense and Castellón’s offensive consistency support the likelihood of goals at both ends. This pick aligns well with the tactical balance and recent scoring data from both sides.

Main risk

The main risk is that Almeria’s recent lower scoring rate could limit goals, and Castellón’s more defensive games (20% over 2.5 rate) might reduce scoring chances.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score rationale

“This fixture features two sides with attacking midfielders and forwards who consistently create chances, making goals likely from both teams. The high shots and BTTS rates underline a match where defensive lapses and offensive quality combine to produce goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Almeria and Castellón have a combined BTTS rate of 70%, indicating frequent mutual scoring.

Both teams average around 17 shots per game, showing offensive intent.

Castellón’s higher corner average (7.4) suggests sustained attacking pressure.

Recent form shows Castellón scoring more frequently, with 1.2 goals per game versus Almeria’s 0.8.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.43, indicating a trend towards higher scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and openness conducive to goals, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Almeria0.8
Avg goals scored
Castellón1.2
Almeria1.2
Avg goals conceded
Castellón0.8
Almeria60%
BTTS rate
Castellón80%
Almeria40%
Over 2.5 goals
Castellón20%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have respectable BTTS rates, 60% for Almeria and 80% for Castellón, indicating frequent mutual scoring. Their average goals per game and head-to-head matches averaging 3.43 goals suggest an open game with opportunities for both sides to find the net.

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Useful next reads

Almeria v Castellón predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Castellón to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Castellón Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Almeria Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
The Both Teams to Score market reflects a balanced expectation for goals from both sides, with the at 76% indicating solid . Without visible , the pick is shown as a standard selection rather than a value bet, supported by consistent attacking stats and historical scoring patterns.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Almeria3.8
Avg corners for
Castellón7.4
Almeria9.6
Avg total corners
Castellón10.4
Almeria3.6
Avg yellow cards
Castellón1.4
Almeria17.4
Avg shots
Castellón17.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 53% · edge +6.4 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 5.5 CardsBet365 guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Castellón’s higher average corners (7.4) compared to Almeria’s 3.8 suggest sustained attacking pressure and territorial advantage. Both teams generate similar shot volumes (~17 per game) with 5.4 shots on target each, indicating balanced offensive threat. Discipline differs, with Almeria averaging more yellow cards, which could influence game flow and set-piece opportunities.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Almeria

DWLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
06 Jun 2026A Castellón1-1
31 May 2026H Valladolid1-0
24 May 2026A Sporting Gijon1-3
16 May 2026H Las Palmas1-2
09 May 2026A Burgos0-0

Castellón

DWWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
06 Jun 2026H Almeria1-1
31 May 2026H Eibar2-1
24 May 2026A Huesca1-0
15 May 2026H Cadiz1-1
09 May 2026A AD Ceuta FC1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 64% · edge +20.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Castellón to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Castellón Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Almeria Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Recent form shows Castellón scoring 1.2 goals per game with an 80% BTTS rate, reflecting offensive consistency. Almeria’s scoring is lower at 0.8 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities but less prolific attack. Both teams have points in recent matches, suggesting competitive motivation and potential for goals.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Almeria wins
1Draws
3Castellón wins
06 Jun 2026Castellón v Almeria1-1
02 Apr 2026Castellón v Almeria2-0
26 Oct 2025Almeria v Castellón1-0
18 Apr 2025Castellón v Almeria4-1
16 Sep 2024Almeria v Castellón2-5
30 Jan 2021Almeria v Castellón3-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Load more odds for this section
Castellón to WinBetMGM guide price · model 63%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 23%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
The seven previous meetings between Almeria and Castellón have been high scoring, averaging 3.43 goals per game. This historical trend supports an expectation of goals from both sides, although current form and tactical changes should also be considered.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Segunda División

Almeria44
Played
Castellón44
Almeria1.9
Avg goals for
Castellón1.7
Almeria1.5
Avg goals against
Castellón1.3
Almeria9
Clean sheets
Castellón12
Best odds for this sectionCastellón to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 35% · edge +28.1 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
Castellón Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Almeria Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Almeria to WinBet365 guide price · model 27%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Season-long data reveals Almeria’s moderate scoring and conceding rates (0.8 GF, 1.2 GA) contrasted with Castellón’s higher scoring and better defense (1.2 GF, 0.8 GA). This balance supports a scenario where both teams can score, with Almeria’s defense susceptible and Castellón’s attack effective.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Almeria74422281218
6Castellón724220121019
Almeria sits third and Castellón sixth in the Segunda División, both with strong points totals (74 and 72). The close table positions highlight competitive stakes, likely encouraging attacking play to secure vital points, which supports a BTTS outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Almeria Over 2.5
20%Castellón Over 2.5
3.43H2H avg goals
Over the last seven head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.43, indicating a trend towards higher scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo and openness conducive to goals, reinforcing the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Almeria v Castellón prediction

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