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Al-Ittihad FC crestAl-Ittihad FC
v
Al Diriyah crestAl Diriyah

Pro League | Fri 23 Oct, 16:30

Al-Ittihad FC v Al Diriyah Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Ittihad FC hosts Al Diriyah in a Pro League clash where the home side holds a clear advantage in recent form and attacking potency. Al-Ittihad FC has averaged 2.6 goals per game and secured 12 points recently, showcasing a strong offensive rhythm. In contrast, Al Diriyah's attack has been less effective, averaging just 0.8 goals per match with 8 points collected. The tactical setup suggests Al-Ittihad FC will leverage their superior firepower and home comfort to press for a decisive victory, while Al Diriyah will likely adopt a cautious approach to contain the hosts' attacking threats.

BT4Y best bet

Al-Ittihad FC to Win

  • Al-Ittihad FC leads with 12 recent points versus Al Diriyah's 8.
  • Al-Ittihad FC averages 2.6 goals per game; Al Diriyah only 0.8.
  • Al-Ittihad FC maintains a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate recently.
  • Al-Ittihad FC averages 14.8 shots per game, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Al Diriyah's BTTS rate is 40%, lower than Al-Ittihad FC's 100%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Al-Ittihad FC to win with a 71.4% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking metrics. Al-Ittihad FC's high shot volume and goal-scoring rate underscore their offensive control, while Al Diriyah's lower goal output and points tally highlight their struggles. The price at 1.91 offers positive value given the 19% edge over the implied chance. This pick aligns well with the teams' contrasting performances and the home side's tactical advantage, making it a strong selection without price caution.

Model Win Probability71.4%
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Home)2.6 per game
Strong positive
Recent Goals For (Away)0.8 per game
Negative
Implied Chance vs Model67.4% model chance vs 52.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Shot Volume (Home)14.8 shots per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al-Ittihad FC's superior attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favorites in this fixture. Their ability to generate high-quality chances contrasts with Al Diriyah's limited offensive output, suggesting a likely home victory supported by both tactical and statistical factors.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Al-Ittihad FC's consistent goal threat and control in the attacking third position them strongly to capitalize on Al Diriyah's defensive vulnerabilities, making their win a compelling prospect.”

Key Data Signals

Al-Ittihad FC to Win evidence

Al-Ittihad FC leads with 12 recent points versus Al Diriyah's 8.

Al-Ittihad FC averages 2.6 goals per game; Al Diriyah only 0.8.

Al-Ittihad FC maintains a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate recently.

Al-Ittihad FC averages 14.8 shots per game, indicating offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Al-Ittihad FC to Win notes

  • Recent trends show Al-Ittihad FC's matches consistently surpass 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking style and finishing efficiency.
  • Al Diriyah's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest they contribute less to goal totals.
  • This trend indicates a high-tempo game with multiple goals, primarily favoring Al-Ittihad FC's offensive control.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Ittihad FC2.6
Avg goals scored
Al Diriyah0.8
Al-Ittihad FC1.4
Avg goals conceded
Al Diriyah1
Al-Ittihad FC100%
BTTS rate
Al Diriyah40%
Al-Ittihad FC100%
Over 2.5 goals
Al Diriyah40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 65% · edge +10.6 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches have consistently exceeded 2.5 goals, with a 100% rate, highlighting their attacking potency. Conversely, Al Diriyah's 40% BTTS rate and lower scoring average suggest fewer goals from their side. This contrast points to a match likely featuring multiple goals, primarily from Al-Ittihad FC's offense.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Ittihad FC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Al-Ittihad FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 67.4% for Al-Ittihad FC to Win sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 8 for Al Diriyah.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Ittihad FC

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 1L
20 Oct 2026A Al-Ettifaq4-1
10 Oct 2026A Al-Hilal Saudi FC2-3
11 Sep 2026A Al-Faisaly FC3-1
08 Sep 2026H Al-Fayha2-1
05 Sep 2026H Al-Nassr2-1

Al Diriyah

WDLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
20 Oct 2026H Al Riyadh1-0
17 Oct 2026H Al Taawon1-1
09 Oct 2026A Al-Nassr0-3
13 Sep 2026H Abha0-0
09 Sep 2026A Al-Fateh2-1
Market aligned with main pickAl-Ittihad FC to WinBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Al-Ittihad FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Al-Ittihad FC's recent form is robust, accumulating 12 points with a strong goal-scoring record, averaging 2.6 goals per game. Al Diriyah's 8 points and 0.8 goals per game reflect struggles to convert chances and maintain momentum. This form disparity supports Al-Ittihad FC's likelihood to control the match tempo and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Ittihad FC Over 2.5
40%Al Diriyah Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent trends show Al-Ittihad FC's matches consistently surpass 2.5 goals, driven by their attacking style and finishing efficiency. Al Diriyah's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest they contribute less to goal totals. This trend indicates a high-tempo game with multiple goals, primarily favoring Al-Ittihad FC's offensive control.

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