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Al-Qadisiyah FC crestAl-Qadisiyah FC
v
Al-Hilal Saudi FC crestAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Pro League | Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

Al-Qadisiyah FC v Al-Hilal Saudi FC Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:24 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC hosts Al-Hilal Saudi FC in a tightly contested Pro League fixture where both teams sit at the summit of the table, separated by a single point. Al-Qadisiyah FC leads with 25 points, closely followed by Al-Hilal with 24, making this a crucial encounter for the title race. Recent form data shows Al-Qadisiyah FC with a slightly stronger goal-scoring rate and a higher frequency of over 2.5 goal matches, suggesting an attacking edge. Tactical balance and home advantage add intrigue to this high-stakes clash.

BT4Y best bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC to Win

  • Al-Qadisiyah FC leads the league with 25 points, just ahead of Al-Hilal's 24 points.
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC averages 2.8 goals scored per match versus Al-Hilal's 2.4, indicating a potent attack.
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, double Al-Hilal's 40%.
  • Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent form includes 13 points gained, slightly edging Al-Hilal's 12 points.
  • Model projects a 48.2% chance for Al-Qadisiyah FC to win, with strong value at 3.1 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Al-Qadisiyah FC to win based on their superior recent form, home advantage, and higher goal-scoring output. Their 48.2% win probability significantly exceeds the implied market chance of 32.3%, indicating strong value. Al-Qadisiyah's offensive metrics, including a high shots volume and over 2.5 goals rate, support an attacking approach likely to challenge Al-Hilal's solid but less prolific defense. The level of 66% reflects a robust statistical backing for this pick.

Recent form pointsAl-Qadisiyah FC 13 vs Al-Hilal 12
Positive
Goal scoring rate2.8 goals per match for Al-Qadisiyah FC
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals rate80% for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs 40% for Al-Hilal
Strong positive
Model win probability48.2% for Al-Qadisiyah FC
Strong positive
Market implied chance48.2% model chance vs 36.4% implied (+11.8 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form and attacking momentum make them a compelling choice to secure victory against a defensively solid Al-Hilal. Their recent points haul and goal-scoring consistency provide a strong foundation, while Al-Hilal's slightly lower offensive output suggests Al-Qadisiyah can capitalize on home advantage to take all three points.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and statistical edge

“Al-Qadisiyah FC's superior attacking metrics and home advantage create a tactical edge in this top-table clash, making their win a plausible outcome despite Al-Hilal's defensive resilience.”

Key Data Signals

Al-Qadisiyah FC to Win evidence

Al-Qadisiyah FC leads the league with 25 points, just ahead of Al-Hilal's 24 points.

Al-Qadisiyah FC averages 2.8 goals scored per match versus Al-Hilal's 2.4, indicating a potent attack.

Al-Qadisiyah FC has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, double Al-Hilal's 40%.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent form includes 13 points gained, slightly edging Al-Hilal's 12 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Al-Qadisiyah FC to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.7, aligning with Al-Qadisiyah FC's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%.
  • This trend indicates a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking tempo and Al-Hilal's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Qadisiyah FC2.8
Avg goals scored
Al-Hilal Saudi FC2.4
Al-Qadisiyah FC1.2
Avg goals conceded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC0.8
Al-Qadisiyah FC60%
BTTS rate
Al-Hilal Saudi FC20%
Al-Qadisiyah FC80%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Hilal Saudi FC40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 36% · edge +7.6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 79%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches feature a high frequency of over 2.5 goals at 80%, reflecting an open attacking style. In contrast, Al-Hilal's 40% rate suggests a more cautious approach. Both teams' goal-scoring and conceding patterns indicate a potential for goals, though BTTS is less likely given Al-Hilal's defensive discipline.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 36% · edge +11.8 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Al-Qadisiyah FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 48.2% for Al-Qadisiyah FC to Win sits against roughly 36.4% implied by the current price (+11.8 pts). Al-Qadisiyah FC have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 12 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Qadisiyah FC

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
20 Oct 2026A Al Taawon1-0
16 Oct 2026H Abha2-1
09 Oct 2026A Al Kholood5-0
11 Sep 2026H Al-Ettifaq3-3
08 Sep 2026H Al-Ahli Jeddah3-2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 1L
19 Oct 2026H Al-Hazm1-0
10 Oct 2026H Al-Ittihad FC3-2
12 Sep 2026A Al Taawon6-0
07 Sep 2026H NEOM0-2
04 Sep 2026A Al Shabab2-0
Market aligned with main pickAl-Qadisiyah FC to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 36% · edge +11.8 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Al-Qadisiyah FC Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Al-Qadisiyah FC has accumulated 13 points recently, showcasing consistent winning form that slightly surpasses Al-Hilal's 12 points. Their offensive output of 2.8 goals per game underpins this success, while Al-Hilal's more conservative 2.4 goals per game reflects a balanced but less explosive approach. This form edge supports in Al-Qadisiyah FC's winning chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Al-Qadisiyah FC Over 2.5
40%Al-Hilal Saudi FC Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.7, aligning with Al-Qadisiyah FC's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80%. This trend indicates a match likely to feature multiple goals, driven by Al-Qadisiyah FC's attacking tempo and Al-Hilal's occasional defensive vulnerabilities.

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