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Sheffield Utd crestSheffield Utd
v
Derby crestDerby

Championship | Sat 24 Oct, 12:30

Sheffield Utd v Derby Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 10:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Sheffield Utd face Derby in Championship on Sat 24 Oct, 12:30. Sheffield Utd come in with 6 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Derby have 2 points and 0.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Sheffield Utd to Win

  • At 1.8, Sheffield Utd to Win implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • Sheffield Utd have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby.
  • Sheffield Utd have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Sheffield Utd to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Sheffield Utd sit 11 in the table, while Derby sit 23, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for Sheffield Utd to Win sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Sheffield Utd have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 56% implied
Positive
Sheffield Utd have the stronger recent points return, taking 6.Visible data support
Positive
Sheffield Utd have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Sheffield Utd Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Sheffield Utd have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Sheffield Utd to Win evidence

Sheffield Utd have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 2 for Derby.

Sheffield Utd have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Sheffield Utd Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Sheffield Utd sit 11 in the table, while Derby sit 23, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Sheffield Utd to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Sheffield Utd1.4
    Avg goals scored
    Derby0.8
    Sheffield Utd1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Derby1.8
    Sheffield Utd40%
    BTTS rate
    Derby80%
    Sheffield Utd60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Derby40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
    2
    Check odds @ 2

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Championship analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSheffield Utd to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Sheffield Utd Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Sheffield Utd to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Sheffield Utd

    WLWLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    17 Oct 2026A Bristol City1-0
    14 Oct 2026A Portsmouth2-3
    10 Oct 2026H Lincoln3-0
    19 Sep 2026A Stoke City1-2
    13 Sep 2026H Wolves0-1

    Derby

    LLDDL
    Last 50W 2D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    17 Oct 2026H Stoke City0-1
    14 Oct 2026A QPR1-4
    10 Oct 2026H Wrexham1-1
    19 Sep 2026A Burnley1-1
    12 Sep 2026H Birmingham1-2
    Market aligned with main pickSheffield Utd to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.8 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Sheffield Utd Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 75%
    1.42
    Check odds @ 1.42
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Sheffield Utd Over 2.5
    40%Derby Over 2.5
    2.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Sheffield Utd sit at 60% and Derby sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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