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Necaxa crestNecaxa
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FC Juarez crestFC Juarez

Liga MX | Sat 24 Oct, 02:00

Necaxa v FC Juarez Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash between Necaxa and FC Juarez features two teams struggling near the bottom of the table, with Necaxa ranked 17th and Juarez 18th. Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 2.6 and 1.8 goals per game respectively, which often leads to physical battles and tactical fouls. Recent form data highlights Juarez's slightly better points haul but both teams have a tendency for aggressive play, setting the stage for a match likely to see multiple cautions as they fight for crucial points in a high-stakes encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Necaxa averages 2 yellow cards per game, Juarez 3.2, indicating a high card count match.
  • Both teams concede frequently, leading to tactical fouls and disciplinary actions.
  • Recent form shows physical intensity with Necaxa and Juarez involved in competitive, aggressive matches.
  • Player data reveals several individuals with high foul and card risk, supporting the likelihood of many cards.
  • Model projects a 64.8% chance for over 4.5 cards, with positive value at 1.83 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong chance for over 4.5 cards due to both teams' aggressive defensive records and high foul rates. Necaxa and FC Juarez average a combined 5.2 yellow cards per match, with players like P. Nevárez showing elevated card risk. The match context of a relegation battle intensifies physicality, increasing card likelihood. The current offer positive value with a 10.2% edge, making this a statistically supported pick. No data limitations reduce in this assessment.

Team foul ratesHigh average fouls per game for both sides
Strong positive
Individual card riskSeveral players with high yellow card counts and foul rates
Strong positive
Match stakesBottom-table clash increases physicality and fouling
Positive
Model chance vs odds64.8% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+10.2 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a fiercely contested match with Necaxa and FC Juarez both prone to fouling and disciplinary issues. The tactical necessity to disrupt opponent attacks in this relegation battle suggests a high card count. Data on player foul rates and team defensive struggles reinforce the likelihood of over 4.5 cards being shown in this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's intensity and defensive fragility make it a prime candidate for numerous cautions, especially given the players' histories of fouling and card accumulation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Necaxa averages 2 yellow cards per game, Juarez 3.2, indicating a high card count match.

Both teams concede frequently, leading to tactical fouls and disciplinary actions.

Recent form shows physical intensity with Necaxa and Juarez involved in competitive, aggressive matches.

Player data reveals several individuals with high foul and card risk, supporting the likelihood of many cards.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.5, indicating open play but not necessarily high scoring.
  • However, the tempo and physicality in recent matches suggest a trend towards aggressive play, which supports the likelihood of multiple cards rather than goals dominating the fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Necaxa1.2
Avg goals scored
FC Juarez0.8
Necaxa2.6
Avg goals conceded
FC Juarez1.8
Necaxa60%
BTTS rate
FC Juarez40%
Necaxa60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Juarez40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 62% · edge +5 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
While goals are modest, with Necaxa averaging 1.2 and Juarez 0.8 per game, both teams' defensive frailties lead to open play and fouls. BTTS rates are higher for Necaxa at 60%, indicating attacking intent that provokes defensive responses, contributing to fouling and cards rather than just goal totals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFC Juarez Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 53% · edge +11 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
FC Juarez to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Necaxa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 64.8% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+10.2 pts). FC Juarez have the higher yellow-card average at 3.2, while Necaxa sit at 2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Necaxa

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 7L
21 Oct 2026A Guadalajara Chivas0-1
17 Oct 2026H Atlas0-2
12 Oct 2026A CF Pachuca3-3
28 Sep 2026H Club America2-4
20 Sep 2026A Atletico San Luis1-3

FC Juarez

LLDLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 8L
21 Oct 2026H Atlante FC0-1
18 Oct 2026A Cruz Azul0-5
11 Oct 2026H Club Tijuana1-1
28 Sep 2026A Leon1-2
19 Sep 2026H Tigres UANL2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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FC Juarez Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
FC Juarez to WinBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Necaxa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Necaxa to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Recent matches show Necaxa and FC Juarez engaging in physically intense games, with Necaxa conceding 2.6 goals per game and Juarez 1.8, often leading to tactical fouling and cards. Juarez's slightly better recent points tally does not reduce the aggressive defensive approach both teams employ, supporting the over 4.5 cards forecast.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Necaxa Over 2.5
40%FC Juarez Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals stand at 2.5, indicating open play but not necessarily high scoring. However, the tempo and physicality in recent matches suggest a trend towards aggressive play, which supports the likelihood of multiple cards rather than goals dominating the fixture.

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