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Bohemians crestBohemians
v
Shelbourne crestShelbourne

Premier Division | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45

Bohemians v Shelbourne Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash at Tolka Park features Bohemians aiming to arrest a recent wobble with three defeats in four matches, while Shelbourne arrive unbeaten in their last ten games, having climbed to fifth place. Shelbourne's tactical resilience and recent unbeaten run contrast with Bohemians' potent but defensively vulnerable style. The match carries significant stakes as both sides seek to consolidate or improve their European qualification prospects. The tactical battle will hinge on Shelbourne's midfield disruption and Bohemians' attacking volume, setting up a tense contest with momentum and on the line.

BT4Y match pick

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Bohemians have scored 11 goals in their last four away matches, showing strong attacking form.
  • Shelbourne are unbeaten in their last 10 matches, demonstrating defensive resilience.
  • Bohemians concede 1.9 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Shelbourne have drawn three of their last four matches, suggesting tight scorelines.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model sees Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals as a plausible outcome given Bohemians' recent away scoring prowess combined with their defensive openness, which suggests matches with fewer goals but competitive edges. Shelbourne's unbeaten streak and tendency toward draws support a low-scoring game. The at 5/1 are slightly short compared to the of 16.6%, indicating a price-sensitive angle. Reduced stakes are advised due to the tight margin between implied and model probabilities. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Bohemians recent away goals11 goals in last 4 away matches
Strong positive
Shelbourne unbeaten run10 games unbeaten
Positive
Defensive opennessBohemians concede 1.9 goals per game
Neutral
Price sensitivity16.6% model chance vs 16.7% implied (-0.1 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bohemians possess the attacking quality to edge this encounter, especially away from home where they have been prolific recently. However, their defensive vulnerabilities and recent poor run add uncertainty. Shelbourne's unbeaten streak and tactical discipline make this a tight contest, but Bohemians' need to regain control and momentum suggests they can secure a narrow win with limited goals.

Main risk

Football loves to pretend momentum is mysterious, but sometimes it is obvious: stop losing, tighten the team, build , and suddenly everyone runs a yard harder.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical balance and scoring potential

“Bohemians' attacking threat combined with Shelbourne's defensive solidity sets the stage for a close, low-scoring game where Bohemians' ability to capitalize on key moments could prove decisive.”

Key Data Signals

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Bohemians have scored 11 goals in their last four away matches, showing strong attacking form.

Shelbourne are unbeaten in their last 10 matches, demonstrating defensive resilience.

Bohemians concede 1.9 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Shelbourne have drawn three of their last four matches, suggesting tight scorelines.

What To Watch In The Data

Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with five draws indicating tight contests.
  • Recent form shows Bohemians have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while Shelbourne's is 80%, suggesting a trend toward matches with moderate scoring.
  • The balance of attacking intent and defensive caution points to a match where tempo and transitions will dictate goal opportunities, aligning with the under 2.5 goals forecast.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bohemians2
Avg goals scored
Shelbourne2.4
Bohemians1.4
Avg goals conceded
Shelbourne1.4
Bohemians100%
BTTS rate
Shelbourne100%
Bohemians100%
Over 2.5 goals
Shelbourne80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams show strong attacking volume with similar shot attempts, but Bohemians convert chances more efficiently while conceding at a high rate. Shelbourne's recent matches often end in draws with fewer goals. This suggests a tactical balance favoring a low to moderate scoring game with goals from Bohemians but limited overall scoring, supporting the under 2.5 goals angle.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBohemians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 74% · edge -15.8 pts
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 16.6% for Bohemians Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 16.7% implied by the current price (-0.1 pts). Bohemians average an impressive 1.9 goals scored alongside a highly vulnerable 1.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bohemians

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
16 Oct 2026H Waterford2-1
12 Oct 2026A Shamrock Rovers1-2
02 Oct 2026A Dundalk2-1
18 Sep 2026H Drogheda United2-1
11 Sep 2026A Galway United3-2

Shelbourne

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
16 Oct 2026A St Patrick's Athl.2-1
09 Oct 2026H Sligo Rovers5-1
25 Sep 2026A Galway United1-1
18 Sep 2026A Dundalk3-2
14 Sep 2026H Drogheda United1-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 77% vs implied 86% · edge -8.8 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
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Bohemians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Bohemians have accumulated 12 points recently but suffered three defeats in four games, reflecting inconsistency despite strong attacking output. Shelbourne's 10-point haul from an unbeaten run highlights their defensive resilience and ability to avoid defeat. This contrast in form underpins the cautious expectation of a narrow Bohemians win with limited goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bohemians Over 2.5
80%Shelbourne Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.6, with five draws indicating tight contests. Recent form shows Bohemians have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, while Shelbourne's is 80%, suggesting a trend toward matches with moderate scoring. The balance of attacking intent and defensive caution points to a match where tempo and transitions will dictate goal opportunities, aligning with the under 2.5 goals forecast.

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