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Perugia crestPerugia
v
Pescara crestPescara

Serie C - Girone B | Fri 23 Oct, 19:30

Perugia v Pescara Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Perugia and Pescara meet in Serie C - Girone B with both sides showing cautious recent form. Perugia ranks 7th with 16 points, while Pescara is close behind in 8th with 15 points. Both teams have demonstrated defensive solidity, with Pescara conceding just 0.6 goals per game and Perugia 1.2. Their recent matches suggest a tactical approach prioritizing defensive organization over high scoring, setting the stage for a tight contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Perugia concedes an average of 1.2 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.
  • Pescara's strong defense allows only 0.6 goals per match on average.
  • Both teams have low Over 2.5 Goals rates: 40% for Perugia and 20% for Pescara.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, supporting a lower-scoring game.
  • Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, suggesting moderate likelihood of both scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 63.2% chance, reflecting the defensive strengths of both teams and their recent low-scoring matches. Pescara's notably low goals conceded rate and Perugia's moderate scoring rate support a tight game. The head-to-head average of 2.2 goals aligns with this view. The current offer positive value, reinforcing the appeal of this selection without requiring caution on price sensitivity.

Defensive StrengthPescara concedes only 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Scoring RatesPerugia averages 1.8 goals for, Pescara 1.2
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateLow rates: Perugia 40%, Pescara 20%
Positive
Head-to-Head GoalsAverage 2.2 goals in last 10 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick suits the tactical and defensive profiles of Perugia and Pescara, both prioritizing solidity at the back. The data confirms a trend of low-scoring matches, with Pescara's strong defense particularly influential. Expect a tightly contested game where scoring chances are limited, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible choice.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive tactics and low scoring potential

“The defensive discipline shown by Pescara, combined with Perugia's cautious approach, suggests a match unlikely to produce many goals. This bet aligns well with the teams' recent performances and tactical setups.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Perugia concedes an average of 1.2 goals per game, indicating defensive resilience.

Pescara's strong defense allows only 0.6 goals per match on average.

Recent head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, supporting a lower-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring games.
  • This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals market as a realistic outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Perugia1.8
Avg goals scored
Pescara1.2
Perugia1.2
Avg goals conceded
Pescara0.6
Perugia40%
BTTS rate
Pescara40%
Perugia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Pescara20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 50% · edge +13.2 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 23%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams show moderate BTTS rates at 40%, but their low goals conceded averages and recent head-to-head scoring (2.2 goals per match) indicate a tendency toward fewer goals. This supports the Under 2.5 Goals selection while acknowledging some chance of both teams scoring.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Perugia

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Campobasso FC5-1
11 Oct 2026H Vado0-2
03 Oct 2026A Gubbio3-1
27 Sep 2026H Reggiana1-0
20 Sep 2026A Grosseto0-2

Pescara

WDWLW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
18 Oct 2026H Ostia Mare2-0
12 Oct 2026H Guidonia Montecelio 19371-1
03 Oct 2026A Livorno1-0
27 Sep 2026H Spezia1-2
20 Sep 2026A Vado1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.5 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Pescara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Pescara to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Perugia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Perugia to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Perugia scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.2, while Pescara scores 1.2 and concedes 0.6. These figures highlight defensive solidity, especially for Pescara, and a trend toward matches with fewer goals, reinforcing the Under 2.5 Goals prediction.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 60% vs implied 60% · edge +0.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Pescara Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Pescara to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.45
Check odds @ 2.45
Perugia Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Perugia to WinBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 63.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price (+13.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Perugia and 20% for Pescara, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Perugia Over 2.5
20%Pescara Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.2, indicating a trend toward lower-scoring games. This sample suggests a tempo and tactical approach that limits goal opportunities, supporting the Under 2.5 Goals market as a realistic outcome.

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