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PAU crestPAU
v
Grenoble crestGrenoble

Ligue 2 | Fri 23 Oct, 19:00

PAU v Grenoble Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

PAU hosts Grenoble in a Ligue 2 clash where PAU's recent form and home advantage set the tone. PAU has collected 10 points in their last five matches, showing a more potent attack and tighter defense compared to Grenoble's 4 points. Grenoble struggles offensively, averaging just 0.6 goals per game recently, while PAU's attacking momentum and higher league standing add pressure on Grenoble to respond. Tactical discipline and home support could be decisive in this contest, with PAU aiming to consolidate their position in the top six.

BT4Y best bet

PAU to Win

  • PAU has earned 10 points from their last five games, showing strong form.
  • Grenoble has managed only 4 points recently, struggling to score.
  • PAU averages 15.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target, indicating offensive pressure.
  • Grenoble's defense concedes 1.4 goals per game, vulnerable to PAU's attack.
  • PAU ranks 6th in Ligue 2, significantly above Grenoble's 15th place.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for PAU to win, reflecting their superior recent form, attacking efficiency, and league position. PAU's average of 1.6 goals scored per game and 6.2 shots on target per match underline their offensive threat, while Grenoble's lower scoring and defensive frailties increase PAU's chances. The at 1.73 offer positive value against the implied 57.8% chance, making PAU to win a strong selection. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent form advantagePAU's 10 points vs Grenoble's 4
Strong positive
Attacking statsPAU 15.2 shots/game, 6.2 on target
Strong positive
Defensive weakness of opponentGrenoble concedes 1.4 goals/game
Positive
League standing gapPAU 6th vs Grenoble 15th
Positive
Price vs model chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

PAU's consistent recent form and higher league standing make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their offensive pressure, demonstrated by superior shot volume and goal scoring, combined with Grenoble's struggles in attack, supports backing PAU for victory. The home advantage further strengthens PAU's chances to secure three points in this Ligue 2 fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“PAU's attacking momentum and home form give them a tactical edge over Grenoble, whose offensive struggles and defensive lapses make them vulnerable in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

PAU to Win evidence

PAU has earned 10 points from their last five games, showing strong form.

Grenoble has managed only 4 points recently, struggling to score.

PAU averages 15.2 shots per game with 6.2 on target, indicating offensive pressure.

Grenoble's defense concedes 1.4 goals per game, vulnerable to PAU's attack.

What To Watch In The Data

PAU to Win notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderately open matches.
  • PAU's recent matches have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, higher than Grenoble's 20%, suggesting PAU's games tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the likelihood of a PAU win with goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

PAU1.6
Avg goals scored
Grenoble0.6
PAU1
Avg goals conceded
Grenoble1.4
PAU60%
BTTS rate
Grenoble40%
PAU40%
Over 2.5 goals
Grenoble20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
PAU averages 1.6 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, while Grenoble scores less frequently with a 40% BTTS rate. The combined data suggests a moderate likelihood of goals, with PAU's attack likely to break through Grenoble's defense, but BTTS is less certain due to Grenoble's limited scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPAU to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
PAU Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 72.8% for PAU to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). PAU have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for Grenoble.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

PAU

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 3L
16 Oct 2026A Guingamp2-1
09 Oct 2026H Laval3-2
18 Sep 2026H Dunkerque2-0
11 Sep 2026A Montpellier0-1
04 Sep 2026H Sochaux1-1

Grenoble

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 5L
16 Oct 2026H Boulogne0-2
09 Oct 2026A Montpellier0-2
18 Sep 2026H Clermont Foot1-1
11 Sep 2026A Rodez1-0
04 Sep 2026H Annecy1-2
Market aligned with main pickPAU to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
PAU Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
PAU's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points in the last five matches with a balanced attack and defense. Grenoble's form is weaker, with only 4 points and lower goal output. This contrast highlights PAU's momentum and ability to control games, increasing their chances to win this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%PAU Over 2.5
20%Grenoble Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2, indicating moderately open matches. PAU's recent matches have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, higher than Grenoble's 20%, suggesting PAU's games tend to be more open and goal-rich, supporting the likelihood of a PAU win with goals.

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