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Alaves crestAlaves
v
Malaga crestMalaga

La Liga | Fri 23 Oct, 20:00

Alaves v Malaga Stats

Data last updated: Fri 13 Nov 2026, 20:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alaves face Malaga in La Liga on Fri 23 Oct, 20:00. Home advantage: Alaves have recorded all three of their league victories this season at Mendizorroza. Alaves welcome Malaga to the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Friday, 23 October 2026, with both sides desperate to halt worrying runs of form in La Liga.

BT4Y best bet

Alaves to win and both teams to score

  • At 11/4, Alaves to win and both teams to score implies roughly 27%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 31%.
  • Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined market plausible and tactically justified.
  • Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 1 and Malaga on 2.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Alaves and 80% for Malaga.
  • Alaves to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.6 for Alaves and 1 for Malaga are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 31% for Alaves to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 27% implied by the current price. Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 1 and Malaga on 2. Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined market plausible and tactically justified.

Model chance vs price31% model chance against roughly 27% implied
Neutral
Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Alaves Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined market plausible and tactically justified. Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 1 and Malaga on 2. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Alaves to win and both teams to score evidence

Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined.

Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 1 and Malaga on 2.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Alaves and 80% for Malaga.

Alaves Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 0.6 for Alaves and 1 for Malaga are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Alaves to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alaves0.6
Avg goals scored
Malaga1
Alaves1.4
Avg goals conceded
Malaga2.2
Alaves60%
BTTS rate
Malaga80%
Alaves60%
Over 2.5 goals
Malaga40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alaves

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Celta Vigo1-2
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1
12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2

Malaga

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 5L
18 Oct 2026H Real Sociedad2-5
09 Oct 2026H Espanyol1-1
20 Sep 2026A Getafe0-1
17 Sep 2026H Villarreal1-3
13 Sep 2026A Celta Vigo1-1
Market aligned with main pickAlaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 50% · edge +0 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 50% · edge +0 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Alaves Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alaves Over 2.5
40%Malaga Over 2.5
2.17H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Alaves sit at 60% and Malaga sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.17 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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