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Alaves crestAlaves
v
Malaga crestMalaga

La Liga | Fri 23 Oct, 20:00

Alaves v Malaga Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 13:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alaves host Malaga at Mendizorroza aiming to end a five-game winless streak and regain early-season momentum. Despite recent struggles, Alaves have won all three league matches at home this season, scoring 13 goals overall. Malaga, bottom of La Liga with just four points, continue to struggle defensively, conceding 18 goals in nine matches, though they have scored in four of their last five games. The return of Angel Perez boosts Alaves' creativity, while Malaga's attacking threat is led by Adrián Niño. Both teams seek to break negative runs, setting up a contest where home advantage and defensive frailty are key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Alaves to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Alaves have won all three home league games this season, scoring 13 goals in total.
  • Malaga have conceded 18 goals in nine matches, the joint-second worst defensive record in La Liga.
  • Four of Malaga's last five matches featured goals at both ends, indicating their ability to score despite defensive issues.
  • Angel Perez returns for Alaves, adding creativity and attacking width after suspension.
  • Lucas Boye has scored five goals in eight appearances, poised to exploit Malaga's defensive weaknesses.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates 'Alaves to Win & Both Teams to Score' at 28.7% chance, slightly above the implied 26.7% , indicating a small positive . Alaves' strong home form and attacking potential, combined with Malaga's defensive vulnerabilities and recent scoring consistency, underpin this selection. The return of Angel Perez enhances Alaves' creative threat, while Malaga's ability to score in recent matches supports the BTTS leg. is moderate given Alaves' recent goal drought, but overall the pick aligns well with tactical and statistical evidence.

Alaves home formStrong with all three wins at Mendizorroza
Strong positive
Malaga defensive recordConceded 18 goals in 9 matches
Strong positive
Malaga scoring consistencyScored in 4 of last 5 matches
Positive
Angel Perez returnRestores creativity and assists potential
Positive
Alaves recent goal droughtOnly 3 goals in last 5 matches
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Alaves' home advantage and attacking resources, highlighted by Lucas Boye and Angel Perez, make them the favorites to win this match. Malaga's defensive struggles and recent ability to score suggest both teams will find the net. This combined market reflects the tactical dynamics and recent form, offering a balanced yet optimistic outlook for a home win with goals at both ends.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and scoring

“Alaves' return to form at Mendizorroza combined with Malaga's porous defense creates a compelling scenario for a home win with both teams scoring. The attacking roles of Boye and Perez versus Malaga's defensive lapses set the stage for an open, goal-filled encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Alaves to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Alaves have won all three home league games this season, scoring 13 goals in total.

Malaga have conceded 18 goals in nine matches, the joint-second worst defensive record in La Liga.

Four of Malaga's last five matches featured goals at both ends, indicating their ability to score despite defensive issues.

Angel Perez returns for Alaves, adding creativity and attacking width after suspension.

What To Watch In The Data

Alaves to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2.17, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent matches involving Malaga show a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Alaves have a 60% rate, suggesting a tendency for higher scoring games at home.
  • Malaga's recent fixtures have seen frequent BTTS outcomes, supporting the trend for goals at both ends and a match tempo conducive to over 2.5 goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alaves0.6
Avg goals scored
Malaga1
Alaves1.4
Avg goals conceded
Malaga2.2
Alaves60%
BTTS rate
Malaga80%
Alaves60%
Over 2.5 goals
Malaga40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have shown tendencies to score recently, with Malaga netting in 80% of their last five matches and Alaves in 60%. Malaga's defensive frailty, conceding 18 goals in nine games, combined with Alaves' home scoring record, supports a match with goals at both ends. This aligns well with the combined market requiring both teams to score alongside a home win.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alaves

LLDLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 4L
18 Oct 2026A Celta Vigo1-2
10 Oct 2026H Atletico Madrid1-2
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1
12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2

Malaga

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 5L
18 Oct 2026H Real Sociedad2-5
09 Oct 2026H Espanyol1-1
20 Sep 2026A Getafe0-1
17 Sep 2026H Villarreal1-3
13 Sep 2026A Celta Vigo1-1
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 86% · edge -16.7 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Load more odds for this section
Alaves to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Alaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Alaves have struggled recently, earning only one point in their last five matches and scoring 0.6 goals per game, indicating a dip in attacking form. Conversely, Malaga have scored in four of their last five games but conceded 2.2 goals per match, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. This contrast suggests a match where Alaves seek to break their drought at home while Malaga continue to concede but still pose a scoring threat, fitting the combined bet profile.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAlaves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 58% · edge -18 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Alaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 30.9% for Alaves to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 26.7% implied by the current price (+4.2 pts). Alaves need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 1 and Malaga on 2. Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined market plausible and tactically justified.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alaves Over 2.5
40%Malaga Over 2.5
2.17H2H avg goals
In the last six meetings, the average goals per game is 2.17, indicating moderate scoring. Recent matches involving Malaga show a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Alaves have a 60% rate, suggesting a tendency for higher scoring games at home. Malaga's recent fixtures have seen frequent BTTS outcomes, supporting the trend for goals at both ends and a match tempo conducive to over 2.5 goals.

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