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Newcastle Jets crestNewcastle Jets
v
Macarthur crestMacarthur

A-League | Sat 24 Oct, 05:00

Newcastle Jets v Macarthur Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 10:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Newcastle Jets face Macarthur in A-League on Sat 24 Oct, 05:00. Newcastle Jets come in with 1 recent points and 2 goals per match, while Macarthur have 3 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • At 2.05, Over 3.5 Goals implies roughly 49%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 58%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Newcastle Jets are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Macarthur at 2.
  • BTTS rates of 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 49% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price58% model chance against roughly 49% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Newcastle Jets.Visible data support
Positive
Newcastle Jets are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Newcastle Jets are carrying more of the scoring load at 2 goals per match, with Macarthur at 2.

BTTS rates of 100% for Newcastle Jets and 100% for Macarthur show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Newcastle Jets2
Avg goals scored
Macarthur2
Newcastle Jets2
Avg goals conceded
Macarthur1
Newcastle Jets100%
BTTS rate
Macarthur100%
Newcastle Jets100%
Over 2.5 goals
Macarthur100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 49% · edge +9.2 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62

Continue the research

Useful next reads

A-League fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 69% · edge +8.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Macarthur to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Macarthur Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Newcastle Jets to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newcastle Jets Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Newcastle Jets

D
Last 50W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 0L
17 Oct 2026A Central Coast Mariners2-2

Macarthur

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Perth Glory2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 59% · edge -0.3 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Macarthur to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Macarthur Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Newcastle Jets to WinBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Newcastle Jets Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetfred guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Newcastle Jets Over 2.5
100%Macarthur Over 2.5
4.4H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Newcastle Jets sit at 100% and Macarthur sit at 100% with the H2H average at 4.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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