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Stade Brestois 29 crestStade Brestois 29
v
Nice crestNice

Ligue 1 | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45

Stade Brestois 29 v Nice Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 13:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Stade Brestois 29 and Nice meet in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity and tactical discipline. Recent matches highlight a balanced scoring output but also a physical edge, with both sides averaging over one yellow card per game. The mid-table stakes encourage aggressive pressing and tight marking, likely increasing fouls and disciplinary actions. This fixture promises a combative encounter with referees expected to be busy managing challenges and tactical fouls, setting the stage for a high card count.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Both teams average over 1 yellow card per game, with Nice at 2.2 and Stade Brestois 29 at 1.2 yellows per match.
  • Recent form shows both sides accumulating 7 points in their last five games, indicating competitive intensity.
  • Player data highlights several individuals with notable card risk, including Z. Diallo (Nice) with 1.5 yellows per 90 minutes.
  • The model estimates a 60.1% chance for over 3.5 cards, suggesting a moderately high likelihood for this market.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 60.1% probability for over 3.5 cards, supported by both teams' aggressive playing styles and disciplinary records. Nice's higher average of 2.2 yellow cards per game and players like Z. Diallo with significant card risk contribute to this outlook. Stade Brestois 29's physical approach and competitive mid-table positioning further increase foul likelihood. The price at 1.83 offers a small positive edge, making this a sensible selection for bettors expecting a tightly contested and physically charged match.

Team Discipline RecordsNice averages 2.2 yellows per game, Stade Brestois 29 1.2
Strong positive
Player Card RiskZ. Diallo leads with 1.5 yellows per 90 minutes
Positive
Recent Form IntensityBoth teams earned 7 points recently, indicating competitive matches
Positive
Model Probability60.1% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+5.5 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physical and competitive Ligue 1 encounter with both Stade Brestois 29 and Nice showing aggressive defensive tactics. The elevated card averages and key players with high card risk suggest a match where referees will frequently intervene. This makes over 3.5 cards a tactically and statistically justified choice for this fixture.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's combination of aggressive midfield battles and players with notable card histories points to a lively disciplinary count. The referees will likely have their hands full managing fouls and tactical challenges throughout the match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average over 1 yellow card per game, with Nice at 2.2 and Stade Brestois 29 at 1.2 yellows per match.

Recent form shows both sides accumulating 7 points in their last five games, indicating competitive intensity.

Player data highlights several individuals with notable card risk, including Z. Diallo (Nice) with 1.5 yellows per 90 minutes.

The model estimates a 60.1% chance for over 3.5 cards, suggesting a moderately high likelihood for this market.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.4, indicating moderately open games.
  • While this trend focuses on goals, the competitive nature and tempo of these fixtures often lead to increased fouling and disciplinary actions, indirectly supporting a higher card count in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Stade Brestois 291.8
Avg goals scored
Nice1.2
Stade Brestois 291.2
Avg goals conceded
Nice1.2
Stade Brestois 2980%
BTTS rate
Nice80%
Stade Brestois 2960%
Over 2.5 goals
Nice60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have similar goal-scoring rates around 1.2 to 1.8 goals per game and an 80% BTTS rate, indicating open play and attacking intent. However, the focus on cards suggests that defensive aggression and fouling may disrupt flow, potentially limiting goal-scoring but increasing disciplinary actions.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Ligue 1 analysiscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.5 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Nice to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 60.1% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+5.5 pts). Nice have the higher yellow-card average at 2.2, while Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Stade Brestois 29

DWLLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 2L
17 Oct 2026A Lille1-1
10 Oct 2026H Angers5-1
20 Sep 2026A Auxerre1-2
13 Sep 2026H Paris Saint Germain0-1
05 Sep 2026A Le Havre2-1

Nice

LWWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 3L
18 Oct 2026A Lyon1-2
11 Oct 2026H Strasbourg2-1
20 Sep 2026H Lille2-1
12 Sep 2026A Auxerre0-1
05 Sep 2026H Le Mans1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.6 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Stade Brestois 29 Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.68
Check odds @ 1.68
Stade Brestois 29 to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Nice to WinBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Nice Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Recent form data shows both teams earning 7 points in their last five matches, reflecting competitive and intense encounters. The consistent accumulation of points suggests neither side will relent, likely leading to physical battles and tactical fouling, supporting the over 3.5 cards market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Stade Brestois 29 Over 2.5
60%Nice Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 2.4, indicating moderately open games. While this trend focuses on goals, the competitive nature and tempo of these fixtures often lead to increased fouling and disciplinary actions, indirectly supporting a higher card count in this match.

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