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Sport Recife crestSport Recife
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Sat 24 Oct, 01:00

Sport Recife v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Série B clash features Criciuma, unbeaten in their last 10 league matches and boasting strong home form with four wins and two draws in their last six games at Estádio Heriberto Hülse. They face Sport Recife, a defensively solid side conceding just 0.73 goals per league match but arriving after a recent away defeat. Both teams share similar possession stats, setting up a tactical battle centered on control and patience. Criciuma's recent narrow victories and Sport Recife's resilient defensive record promise a tightly contested match with high stakes in the promotion race.

BT4Y best bet

Criciuma to Win

  • Criciuma unbeaten in last 10 Série B matches with strong home form
  • Sport Recife concede only 0.73 goals per league game, showing defensive solidity
  • Criciuma's last six home games include three 1-0 wins, indicating low-scoring control
  • Both teams average 54% possession, suggesting a tactical midfield battle

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Criciuma to win due to their commanding unbeaten run and home stability, reflected in four wins and two draws in recent home matches. Their ability to control possession and maintain defensive discipline aligns with Sport Recife's compact defense, suggesting a narrow margin victory for Criciuma. The 18.7% at 1.95 confirms this pick as a strong value bet without price warnings. The model is moderate, supported by consistent recent form and tactical control indicators.

Recent FormCriciuma unbeaten in last 10 matches
Strong positive
Home AdvantageFour wins and two draws in last six home games
Strong positive
Defensive SoliditySport Recife concede only 0.73 goals per game
Positive
Possession ControlBoth teams average 54% possession, indicating tactical battle
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Criciuma's unbeaten home run and tactical maturity give them the edge in this tight Série B encounter. Their ability to control possession and execute narrow victories contrasts with Sport Recife's solid but slightly uneven recent form. This match is likely to be decided by fine margins, with Criciuma's home rhythm expected to be decisive.

Main risk

That mixture tells us Sport have not been flying, but they remain competitive in tight games.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Criciuma's consistent unbeaten streak and home stability create a tactical advantage that should see them edge out Sport Recife in a closely fought contest.”

Key Data Signals

Criciuma to Win evidence

Criciuma unbeaten in last 10 Série B matches with strong home form

Sport Recife concede only 0.73 goals per league game, showing defensive solidity

Criciuma's last six home games include three 1-0 wins, indicating low-scoring control

Both teams average 54% possession, suggesting a tactical midfield battle

What To Watch In The Data

Criciuma to Win notes

  • Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, with half ending in draws and several close scorelines.
  • Criciuma's recent home matches feature low-scoring outcomes, aligning with the trend of cautious, tactical play.
  • This suggests Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, with the match favoring a tight, controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sport Recife1.2
Avg goals scored
Criciuma1.4
Sport Recife1.6
Avg goals conceded
Criciuma0.2
Sport Recife80%
BTTS rate
Criciuma0%
Sport Recife60%
Over 2.5 goals
Criciuma20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 55% · edge +5.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams demonstrate defensive discipline, with Sport Recife conceding just 0.73 goals per game and Criciuma's recent home matches featuring multiple 1-0 scorelines. Criciuma's BTTS rate is 0%, reinforcing expectations of a low-scoring game, while Sport Recife's higher BTTS rate suggests they can score but are also defensively solid. Overall, under 3.5 goals and BTTS No are plausible outcomes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The 49.7% for Criciuma to Win sits against roughly 34.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 7 for Sport Recife. They are not blowing teams away, but they are not allowing opponents much room to breathe either.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sport Recife

LDWWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
17 Oct 2026H Fortaleza EC0-2
11 Oct 2026A Atletico Goianiense1-1
06 Oct 2026H São Bernardo2-1
02 Oct 2026A Athletic Club2-1
26 Sep 2026A Nautico Recife1-3

Criciuma

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
18 Oct 2026A São Bernardo1-0
12 Oct 2026H America Mineiro1-0
08 Oct 2026A Ceara0-1
03 Oct 2026A Londrina2-0
27 Sep 2026H Avai3-0
Market aligned with main pickCriciuma to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 35% · edge +15 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Criciuma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Criciuma's recent form is impressive, earning 12 points in their last six matches with a strong defensive record conceding only 0.2 goals per game. Sport Recife's form is more mixed, with 7 points and 1.2 goals scored per game but conceding 1.6 goals, indicating vulnerability. This contrast supports Criciuma's favored status and home advantage in the match outcome.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Sport Recife Over 2.5
20%Criciuma Over 2.5
2.22H2H avg goals
Over the last nine head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.22, with half ending in draws and several close scorelines. Criciuma's recent home matches feature low-scoring outcomes, aligning with the trend of cautious, tactical play. This suggests Over 2.5 Goals is less likely, with the match favoring a tight, controlled tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities.

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