Football Stats Hub

Galway United crestGalway United
v
St Patrick's Athl. crestSt Patrick's Athl.

Premier Division | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45

Galway United v St Patrick's Athl. Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Galway United host St Patrick's Athl. in a Premier Division clash where both teams have shown moderate scoring rates and defensive solidity. Galway United average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, while St Patrick's Athl. also score 1.6 but concede just 0.6 on average. Recent form indicates cautious play with both sides having a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a tendency towards tighter contests. The away side's stronger defensive record and the fixture's late-season timing hint at a tactical battle likely to limit goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, indicating moderate attacking output.
  • St Patrick's Athl. concede only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength.
  • Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting many matches stay under this threshold.
  • Recent form shows Galway United have conceded 1.2 goals per game, supporting a lower-scoring game.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.8, slightly above 2.5 but balanced by current defensive form.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 59.3% chance, reflecting both teams' balanced attacking and defensive profiles. Galway United and St Patrick's Athl. have similar scoring averages but the away side's notably low goals conceded rate (0.6 per game) supports a tighter match. Both teams' 40% Over 2.5 rate indicates many matches end with fewer goals. The at 2.08 offer positive value against the implied 48.1% chance, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection given the tactical caution and defensive discipline expected. No data limitations affect here.

Model Chance59.3% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+11.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance59.3% model chance vs 48.1% implied (+11.2 pts)
Positive
Galway United Goals Against1.2 per game
Positive
St Patrick's Athl. Goals Against0.6 per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate Both Teams40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a logical pick given the defensive solidity of St Patrick's Athl. and Galway United's moderate scoring. The away side's strong defensive record and both teams' recent form point to a cautious, tactical encounter unlikely to produce many goals. This bet aligns well with the teams' styles and recent output, making it a sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and tactical caution

“This fixture looks set for a tactical midfield battle with both sides showing defensive discipline and moderate attacking threat. The low goals conceded by St Patrick's Athl. combined with Galway's cautious approach suggests a match where goals will be at a premium.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, indicating moderate attacking output.

St Patrick's Athl. Concede only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength.

Recent form shows Galway United have conceded 1.2 goals per game, supporting a lower-scoring game.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, slightly above 2.5, indicating occasional open games.
  • However, recent form and defensive stats suggest this fixture may trend lower in goals.
  • The trend panel highlights the need to watch for tempo and transition chances that could influence goal totals in this specific match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Galway United1.6
Avg goals scored
St Patrick's Athl.1.6
Galway United1.2
Avg goals conceded
St Patrick's Athl.0.6
Galway United60%
BTTS rate
St Patrick's Athl.20%
Galway United40%
Over 2.5 goals
St Patrick's Athl.40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 59% vs implied 48% · edge +11.2 pts
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 27%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams average 1.6 goals scored per game, but St Patrick's Athl.'s strong defense (0.6 goals conceded per game) contrasts with Galway United's 1.2 conceded. BTTS rates differ notably with Galway at 60% and St Patrick's Athl. at 20%, indicating asymmetric attacking threat and defensive resilience, supporting a lower-scoring match with limited goal exchanges.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGalway United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Galway United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 59.3% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.1% implied by the current price (+11.2 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Galway United and 40% for St Patrick's Athl., so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Galway United

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
19 Oct 2026A Waterford2-3
16 Oct 2026H Shamrock Rovers2-0
25 Sep 2026H Shelbourne1-1
18 Sep 2026A Derry City0-1
14 Sep 2026A Sligo Rovers3-1

St Patrick's Athl.

LLWWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
19 Oct 2026A Derry City0-1
16 Oct 2026H Shelbourne1-2
19 Sep 2026A Sligo Rovers1-0
14 Sep 2026A Dundalk4-0
11 Sep 2026H Shamrock Rovers2-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Galway United Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Galway United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 32%
5
Check odds @ 5
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Recent form shows both teams scoring 1.6 goals per game but with contrasting defensive records: Galway United concede 1.2 goals per game while St Patrick's Athl. Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating that most matches end with two or fewer goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Galway United Over 2.5
40%St Patrick's Athl. Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, slightly above 2.5, indicating occasional open games. However, recent form and defensive stats suggest this fixture may trend lower in goals. The trend panel highlights the need to watch for tempo and transition chances that could influence goal totals in this specific match.

Loading deeper match data…