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Vicenza Virtus crestVicenza Virtus

Serie B | Fri 23 Oct, 19:30

Empoli v Vicenza Virtus Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Empoli and Vicenza Virtus meet in a Serie B clash where attacking intent is evident from both sides. Empoli, ranked 14th, have struggled defensively but maintain a moderate goal output, while Vicenza Virtus, sitting 17th, show a higher tendency for open games with an 80% Over 2.5 rate. Both teams have been involved in matches with multiple goals recently, suggesting a fixture likely to produce offensive action. The tactical setup and recent scoring patterns indicate a lively encounter with chances at both ends, setting the stage for a goal-rich contest.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Vicenza Virtus have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Empoli concede an average of 1.6 goals per match, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • The last four head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, supporting an attacking game.
  • Both teams average over 10 shots per game, showing offensive activity and shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong 66.7% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the implied market chance of 52.6%, creating a 14.1% . Both Empoli and Vicenza Virtus display attacking tendencies, with Vicenza's 80% Over 2.5 rate and Empoli's defensive concessions supporting a goal-rich fixture. The recent head-to-head average of 3.5 goals further underpins the expectation of multiple goals. This combination of attacking form and defensive frailties makes Over 2.5 Goals a compelling selection with solid statistical backing.

Model Chance66.7% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+14.1 pts)
Strong positive
Vicenza Virtus Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
Empoli Goals Against1.6 per match
Positive
H2H Average Goals3.5 goals in last 4 matches
Positive
Market Implied Chance66.7% model chance vs 52.6% implied (+14.1 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with open play and goal-scoring opportunities given both teams' offensive profiles and defensive lapses. Vicenza Virtus's high Over 2.5 rate combined with Empoli's goal concessions suggest multiple goals are likely. This bet aligns with the tactical openness and recent scoring trends of both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive traits

“This fixture features two teams that have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice given their recent performances and head-to-head history.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Vicenza Virtus have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Empoli concede an average of 1.6 goals per match, reflecting defensive vulnerabilities.

The last four head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, supporting an attacking game.

Both teams average over 10 shots per game, showing offensive activity and shot volume.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • The last four head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a history of open, attacking games.
  • This recent trend suggests a continuation of high-tempo play with goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals expectation for this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Empoli1
Avg goals scored
Vicenza Virtus1.2
Empoli1.6
Avg goals conceded
Vicenza Virtus2
Empoli60%
BTTS rate
Vicenza Virtus80%
Empoli40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vicenza Virtus80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 53% · edge +14.1 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 85%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both Empoli and Vicenza Virtus have shown a propensity for games with multiple goals and BTTS occurrences. Vicenza's 80% Over 2.5 and BTTS rates highlight their open style, while Empoli's 60% BTTS rate and 40% Over 2.5 rate suggest a moderate but consistent goal threat. The high average goals in their recent meetings (3.5) reinforce the expectation of goals from both sides.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 53% · edge +14.1 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Empoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Vicenza Virtus to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Vicenza Virtus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The 66.7% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+14.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Empoli and 80% for Vicenza Virtus, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Empoli

DLLLW
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 4L
17 Oct 2026A Ascoli1-1
10 Oct 2026H Palermo2-4
20 Sep 2026A Modena1-2
11 Sep 2026H Arezzo0-1
05 Sep 2026A Carrarese1-0

Vicenza Virtus

DLLDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 3L
17 Oct 2026A Benevento2-2
10 Oct 2026H Pisa0-3
20 Sep 2026A Hellas Verona1-2
12 Sep 2026H Juve Stabia1-1
06 Sep 2026A Virtus Entella2-2
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 74% · edge +2.7 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 65%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Empoli to WinBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Empoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Vicenza Virtus to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Vicenza Virtus Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent form data shows Vicenza Virtus with an 80% Over 2.5 rate, reflecting frequent high-scoring matches, while Empoli's 40% rate is lower but still notable. Both teams have conceded and scored regularly in recent fixtures, indicating a trend towards open games with multiple goals. This form supports the likelihood of Over 2.5 Goals in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Empoli Over 2.5
80%Vicenza Virtus Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last four head-to-head matches between these teams have averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a history of open, attacking games. This recent trend suggests a continuation of high-tempo play with goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the Over 2.5 Goals expectation for this match.

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