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Pineto crestPineto
v
Gubbio crestGubbio

Serie C - Girone B | Fri 23 Oct, 19:30

Pineto v Gubbio Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Pineto hosts Gubbio in a Serie C - Girone B clash where Pineto aims to capitalize on their superior recent form and home advantage. Pineto has collected 11 points and sits 15th in the standings, showing more resilience than Gubbio, who are 19th with 7 points. Pineto's recent performances include gaining 5 points with a more effective attack, while Gubbio has struggled to score and concede more goals. This fixture offers Pineto a chance to extend their positive momentum against a side that has yet to earn points in recent matches, setting up a tactical battle favoring the home team.

BT4Y best bet

Pineto to Win

  • Pineto has a 72.6% to win, well above the implied chance of 57.1%.
  • Pineto's recent form shows 5 points gained versus Gubbio's 0 in the last matches.
  • Pineto averages 0.8 goals scored per game compared to Gubbio's 0.2, indicating stronger attacking output.
  • Gubbio concedes 2.2 goals per game, higher than Pineto's 1.4, suggesting defensive vulnerability.
  • H2H average goals stand at 2.5 over 8 matches, indicating moderate scoring potential in this fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Pineto to win due to their superior recent form, better goal-scoring rate, and more solid defensive record compared to Gubbio. Pineto's 72.6% chance reflects a strong probability supported by 11 points in the league and home advantage. Gubbio's struggles to score and higher goals conceded per game weaken their chances. The model sees clear value as the imply only a 57.1% chance, making Pineto a positive expected value bet. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent formPineto 5 points vs Gubbio 0 points
Strong positive
Goals scored per gamePineto 0.8 vs Gubbio 0.2
Positive
Goals conceded per gamePineto 1.4 vs Gubbio 2.2
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance72.1% model chance vs 57.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
H2H average goals2.5 goals over 8 matches
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Pineto's recent form and home advantage make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their better goal-scoring and defensive numbers compared to Gubbio provide a solid statistical foundation for this pick. The tactical setup should allow Pineto to control the match tempo and capitalize on Gubbio's defensive weaknesses.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Pineto's tactical and statistical advantage

“Pineto's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive discipline at home gives them a clear edge in this fixture. Gubbio's struggles in attack and defense make it difficult for them to challenge effectively.”

Key Data Signals

Pineto to Win evidence

Pineto has a 72.6% to win, well above the implied chance of 57.1%.

Pineto's recent form shows 5 points gained versus Gubbio's 0 in the last matches.

Pineto averages 0.8 goals scored per game compared to Gubbio's 0.2, indicating stronger attacking output.

Gubbio concedes 2.2 goals per game, higher than Pineto's 1.4, suggesting defensive vulnerability.

What To Watch In The Data

Pineto to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average of 2.5 goals suggests a moderate tempo with neither side dominating scoring.
  • This trend points to a match where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with the teams' cautious recent scoring rates and defensive setups.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Pineto0.8
Avg goals scored
Gubbio0.2
Pineto1.4
Avg goals conceded
Gubbio2.2
Pineto20%
BTTS rate
Gubbio20%
Pineto40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gubbio20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 58% · edge +2.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 25%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
The average of 2.5 goals in the last eight head-to-head matches indicates a moderate scoring environment. Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting a cautious approach with limited goal exchanges, favoring a controlled game rather than an open shootout.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Pineto

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
20 Oct 2026H Reggiana2-0
17 Oct 2026A Pianese0-0
04 Oct 2026A Guidonia Montecelio 19370-1
26 Sep 2026H Grosseto0-4
20 Sep 2026A Campobasso FC2-2

Gubbio

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
18 Oct 2026H Atalanta II0-2
10 Oct 2026A Spezia0-2
03 Oct 2026H Perugia1-3
27 Sep 2026A Ravenna0-2
20 Sep 2026H Ostia Mare0-2
Market aligned with main pickPineto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Pineto Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Pineto's recent accumulation of 5 points contrasts sharply with Gubbio's 0 points, reflecting greater consistency and momentum. Pineto's ability to score more and concede less recently underlines their readiness to capitalize on home advantage and maintain pressure throughout the match.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPineto to WinBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Pineto Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 72.1% for Pineto to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Pineto have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Gubbio.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Pineto Over 2.5
20%Gubbio Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head matches, the average of 2.5 goals suggests a moderate tempo with neither side dominating scoring. This trend points to a match where goals are possible but not guaranteed, aligning with the teams' cautious recent scoring rates and defensive setups.

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