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Ekstraklasa | Fri 23 Oct, 19:30

Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Ekstraklasa clash features Gornik Zabrze, the league leaders with 26 points, visiting Widzew Łódź, who sit 14th with 10 points. Gornik Zabrze have been in strong form, securing 11 points recently while maintaining a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Widzew Łódź have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.8 goals per match and failing to score in recent outings. The visitors' attacking efficiency and defensive resilience contrast with Widzew's difficulties, setting up a tactical battle where Gornik Zabrze's quality and momentum could prove decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Gornik Zabrze to Win

  • Gornik Zabrze leads the league with 26 points, showing consistent winning form.
  • Widzew Łódź averages just 0.8 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.
  • Gornik Zabrze concedes only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.
  • Gornik Zabrze averages more shots (16.2) and shots on target (5) than Widzew Łódź.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gornik Zabrze to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their dominant league position and superior recent form. Their attack is more potent, averaging twice as many goals per game as Widzew Łódź, while maintaining a strong defense. The price at 2.45 offers positive value given the implied chance of 40.8%. The data quality is solid for both teams, supporting in this selection.

Model Chance60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance vs Model60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsGornik 11 vs Widzew 4
Strong positive
Goals For per GameGornik 1.6 vs Widzew 0.8
Strong positive
Goals Against per GameGornik 0.6 vs Widzew 1.0
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gornik Zabrze's tactical discipline and attacking efficiency make them the clear favorite in this match. Their strong recent form and league-leading status are backed by solid defensive numbers, suggesting they can control the game and secure the win against a struggling Widzew Łódź side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Gornik Zabrze's balance of solid defense and effective attack positions them well to dominate this fixture. Their ability to convert chances while limiting opposition opportunities is key to their winning edge.”

Key Data Signals

Gornik Zabrze to Win evidence

Gornik Zabrze leads the league with 26 points, showing consistent winning form.

Widzew Łódź averages just 0.8 goals per game, indicating offensive struggles.

Gornik Zabrze concedes only 0.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive solidity.

Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting moderate scoring potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Gornik Zabrze to Win notes

  • In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating a moderately open game with scoring opportunities.
  • Both teams' 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a balanced tempo, but Gornik Zabrze's superior attack and defense hint at controlled chances leading to a decisive result favoring them.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Widzew Łódź0.8
Avg goals scored
Gornik Zabrze1.6
Widzew Łódź1
Avg goals conceded
Gornik Zabrze0.6
Widzew Łódź60%
BTTS rate
Gornik Zabrze60%
Widzew Łódź40%
Over 2.5 goals
Gornik Zabrze40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 59% · edge +4.5 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have a moderate 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals and 60% BTTS, suggesting a balanced attacking approach. However, Gornik Zabrze's higher scoring average and defensive solidity imply a controlled game with potential for multiple goals, favoring a win rather than a high-scoring shootout.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Widzew Łódź

DLDDD
Last 50W 4D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 6D 3L
16 Oct 2026H Wisla Krakow0-0
11 Oct 2026A Piast Gliwice1-2
18 Sep 2026H Wieczysta Kraków2-2
13 Sep 2026A Legia Warszawa1-1
05 Sep 2026H Radomiak Radom0-0

Gornik Zabrze

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
18 Oct 2026H Piast Gliwice1-1
10 Oct 2026A Jagiellonia3-1
19 Sep 2026A Motor Lublin0-0
15 Sep 2026A Korona Kielce2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lech Poznan2-1
Market aligned with main pickGornik Zabrze to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Gornik Zabrze's recent form is impressive, earning 11 points with a strong defensive record conceding just 0.6 goals per game. Widzew Łódź has struggled, securing only 4 points and failing to score consistently. This contrast in momentum and output supports Gornik Zabrze's likelihood to control the match and secure victory.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGornik Zabrze to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Gornik Zabrze Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 60.5% for Gornik Zabrze to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gornik Zabrze have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Widzew Łódź.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Widzew Łódź Over 2.5
40%Gornik Zabrze Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
In the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.63, indicating a moderately open game with scoring opportunities. Both teams' 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a balanced tempo, but Gornik Zabrze's superior attack and defense hint at controlled chances leading to a decisive result favoring them.

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