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Derry City crestDerry City
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Dundalk crestDundalk

Premier Division | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45

Derry City v Dundalk Stats

Data last updated: Thu 22 Oct 2026, 08:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City and Dundalk meet in a Premier Division clash marked by contrasting styles and recent form patterns. Derry City excel in defensive compactness and possession control, often slowing matches down and drawing games, as seen in their seven draws from the last ten league fixtures. Dundalk bring a more aggressive, high-tempo approach with wide play and transition threat, averaging 1.6 goals per game but also conceding at the same rate. Both teams are chasing momentum late in the season, with Derry City relying on tactical patience and Dundalk pushing for attacking breakthroughs, setting up a tightly contested encounter with limited scoring chances.

BT4Y best bet

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Derry City unbeaten in last 10 meetings with Dundalk, with six draws
  • Derry City concede just 0.8 goals per match, showing defensive discipline
  • Dundalk average 16.5 shots per game, indicating attacking intent but defensive vulnerability
  • Seven of Derry City's last ten league matches ended in draws, highlighting cautious play
  • Dundalk's aggressive wide play contrasts with Derry's possession control and defensive compactness

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Derry City to win under 2.5 goals due to their strong defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game and their unbeaten run against Dundalk in recent meetings. Dundalk's high shot volume and attacking intent are balanced by their defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a low-scoring game. The tactical contrast between Derry's patient buildup and Dundalk's aggressive transitions supports a controlled tempo with limited clear-cut chances. The offer significant value given the model's 39.4% chance versus an implied 15.4%, making this a compelling selection without major price warnings.

Derry City's defensive solidity0.8 goals conceded per match
Strong positive
Unbeaten head-to-head record10 matches unbeaten vs Dundalk
Strong positive
Dundalk's attacking volume16.5 shots per game
Positive
Dundalk's defensive risk1.6 goals conceded per match
Neutral
Draw frequency in Derry's recent games7 draws in last 10 league matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Derry City's disciplined defensive structure and unbeaten recent record against Dundalk provide a solid foundation for a low-scoring win. Dundalk's attacking enthusiasm may create moments of pressure, but Derry's ability to control possession and limit clear chances makes them the likely victors in a tight match.

Main risk

Dundalk’s season has not been smooth, but there is still something admirably aggressive about the way they play.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive balance

“This fixture is a classic tactical battle between Dundalk's energetic wide attacks and Derry City's patient possession control. Derry's defensive resilience and recent unbeaten streak against Dundalk make their win combined with under 2.5 goals a logical and attractive choice.”

Key Data Signals

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Derry City unbeaten in last 10 meetings with Dundalk, with six draws

Derry City concede just 0.8 goals per match, showing defensive discipline

Dundalk average 16.5 shots per game, indicating attacking intent but defensive vulnerability

Seven of Derry City's last ten league matches ended in draws, highlighting cautious play

What To Watch In The Data

Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 3.3, with six draws indicating tight contests.
  • However, recent trends show Derry City's matches often stay under 2.5 goals, reflecting their defensive focus.
  • Dundalk's matches have a higher over 2.5 goals rate, but the tactical battle and defensive discipline suggest this fixture will lean towards fewer goals, consistent with Derry's style over the last five matches.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derry City1
Avg goals scored
Dundalk1
Derry City0.8
Avg goals conceded
Dundalk2.2
Derry City20%
BTTS rate
Dundalk80%
Derry City20%
Over 2.5 goals
Dundalk60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams show contrasting goal patterns: Derry City have a low BTTS rate at 20% and under 2.5 goals in most matches, while Dundalk have a higher BTTS rate at 80% and more open games. However, Derry's defensive compactness and tendency to slow matches suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities, supporting a BTTS No and under 3.5 goals scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The 39.4% for Derry City Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 15.4% implied by the current price (+24 pts). Derry City concede just 0.8 goals per match, highlighting a strict defensive setup that heavily dictates total goals volume.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derry City

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
19 Oct 2026H St Patrick's Athl.1-0
16 Oct 2026A Drogheda United0-2
18 Sep 2026H Galway United1-0
14 Sep 2026A Waterford2-2
11 Sep 2026A Shelbourne1-0

Dundalk

DLLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
17 Oct 2026A Sligo Rovers1-1
02 Oct 2026H Bohemians1-2
18 Sep 2026H Shelbourne2-3
14 Sep 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-4
11 Sep 2026A Waterford1-1
Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Derry City Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Derry City's recent form features seven draws in their last ten league matches, highlighting a cautious and controlled style that prioritizes defensive stability over attacking risk. Dundalk have shown attacking bursts but also defensive frailties, conceding more goals and drawing several matches. This form profile aligns with a low-scoring game where Derry's defensive resilience could secure a narrow win under 2.5 goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Derry City Over 2.5
60%Dundalk Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 3.3, with six draws indicating tight contests. However, recent trends show Derry City's matches often stay under 2.5 goals, reflecting their defensive focus. Dundalk's matches have a higher over 2.5 goals rate, but the tactical battle and defensive discipline suggest this fixture will lean towards fewer goals, consistent with Derry's style over the last five matches.

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