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West Ham crestWest Ham
v
Arsenal crestArsenal

Premier League | Sun 10 May, 16:30

West Ham v Arsenal Stats

Data last updated: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 21:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Ham face Arsenal in Premier League on Sun 10 May, 16:30. However, West Ham are unbeaten in nine home games and rarely fail to score at the London Stadium. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Arsenal's trend of finding narrow away victories and West Ham's stubborn home resistance.

BT4Y match pick

Have seen West Ham struggle to contain teams during routine corner deliveries

  • At 21/10, West Ham Win implies roughly 32%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Given Arsenal's defensive vulnerability from open transitions and West Ham's clinical counter-attacking through Bowen, a tight match with the Gunners edging it by a.
  • Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for West Ham.
  • Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the West Ham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • West Ham sit 18 in the table, while Arsenal sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for West Ham Win sits against roughly 32% implied by the current price. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for West Ham. Given Arsenal's defensive vulnerability from open transitions and West Ham's clinical counter-attacking through Bowen, a tight match with the Gunners edging it by a.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 32% implied
Neutral
Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Given Arsenal's defensive vulnerability from open transitions and West.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: West Ham Win is the preferred angle because given Arsenal's defensive vulnerability from open transitions and West Ham's clinical counter-attacking through Bowen, a tight match with the Gunners edging it by a single goal is the logical outcome. Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for West Ham. That is not collapse territory, but it is enough to invite nerves into the conversation.

Main risk

That is not collapse territory, but it is enough to invite nerves into the conversation.

Key Data Signals

West Ham Win evidence

Given Arsenal's defensive vulnerability from open transitions and West Ham's clinical counter-attacking through Bowen, a tight match.

Arsenal have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for West Ham.

Arsenal have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the West Ham Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

West Ham sit 18 in the table, while Arsenal sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

West Ham Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    West Ham5.2
    Avg corners for
    Arsenal6.6
    West Ham8.8
    Avg total corners
    Arsenal10.2
    West Ham2
    Avg yellow cards
    Arsenal1
    West Ham11.8
    Avg shots
    Arsenal15.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5 pts
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    West Ham1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Arsenal1.6
    West Ham1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Arsenal0.8
    West Ham20%
    BTTS rate
    Arsenal40%
    West Ham60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Arsenal60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 80% vs implied 82% · edge -2.4 pts
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for West Ham and 60% for Arsenal, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +12.2 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 58%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    West Ham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    West Ham to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    West Ham

    LWDWL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    02 May 2026A Brentford0-3
    25 Apr 2026H Everton2-1
    20 Apr 2026A Crystal Palace0-0
    10 Apr 2026H Wolves4-0
    22 Mar 2026A Aston Villa0-2

    Arsenal

    WWLLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 2D 2L
    02 May 2026H Fulham3-0
    25 Apr 2026H Newcastle1-0
    19 Apr 2026A Manchester City1-2
    11 Apr 2026H Bournemouth1-2
    14 Mar 2026H Everton2-0
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +12.2 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    2.43
    Check odds @ 2.43
    West Ham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3West Ham wins
    1Draws
    6Arsenal wins
    04 Oct 2025Arsenal v West Ham2-0
    22 Feb 2025Arsenal v West Ham0-1
    30 Nov 2024West Ham v Arsenal2-5
    11 Feb 2024West Ham v Arsenal0-6
    28 Dec 2023Arsenal v West Ham0-2
    01 Nov 2023West Ham v Arsenal3-1
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +12.2 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for West Ham to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    West Ham38
    Played
    Arsenal38
    West Ham1.2
    Avg goals for
    Arsenal1.9
    West Ham1.7
    Avg goals against
    Arsenal0.7
    West Ham7
    Clean sheets
    Arsenal19
    Market aligned with main pickWest Ham to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 17% · edge +12.2 pts
    5.75
    Check odds @ 5.75
    Load more odds for this section
    West Ham Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports West Ham to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Arsenal8538267544
    18West Ham393810919-19
    West Ham sit in position 18, while Arsenal sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the West Ham Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%West Ham Over 2.5
    60%Arsenal Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: West Ham sit at 60% and Arsenal sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    West Ham v Arsenal prediction

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    Betting context

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