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Ponte Preta crestPonte Preta
v
Criciuma crestCriciuma

Serie B | Thu 09 Jul, 00:00

Ponte Preta v Criciuma Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 15:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ponte Preta face Criciuma in Serie B on Thu 09 Jul, 00:00. Criciúma come into this match in excellent form with four wins from their last five league matches. Criciúma's recent successes have been built on low-scoring efficiency, including consecutive 1-0 victories over Sport Recife and São Bernardo.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Ponte Preta Win

  • At 4/7, Ponte Preta Win implies roughly 64%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • In Série B, patience is not boring; it is often the difference between a professional away performance and a late-night disaster.
  • Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 0 for Ponte Preta.
  • Criciuma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Ponte Preta Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Ponte Preta sit 20 in the table, while Criciuma sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Ponte Preta Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 64% while the model sits nearer 27% (-36.6 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Ponte Preta Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 3.55.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Ponte Preta Win sits against roughly 64% implied by the current price. Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 0 for Ponte Preta. In Série B, patience is not boring; it is often the difference between a professional away performance and a late-night disaster.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 64% implied
Negative
Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points.Visible data support
Positive
Criciuma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
In Série B, patience is not boring; it is.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ponte Preta Win is the preferred angle because in Série B, patience is not boring; it is often the difference between a professional away performance and a late-night disaster. Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 0 for Ponte Preta. Ponte Preta may need aggression, but over-aggression can open spaces.

Main risk

Ponte Preta may need aggression, but over-aggression can open spaces.

Key Data Signals

Ponte Preta Win evidence

In Série B, patience is not boring; it is often the difference between a professional away performance.

Criciuma have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 0 for Ponte Preta.

Criciuma have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.2 conceded per match, which helps the Ponte Preta Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Ponte Preta sit 20 in the table, while Criciuma sit 1, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Ponte Preta Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Ponte Preta4.4
    Avg corners for
    Criciuma5.2
    Ponte Preta9.6
    Avg total corners
    Criciuma8
    Ponte Preta2.4
    Avg yellow cards
    Criciuma2.2
    Ponte Preta9.4
    Avg shots
    Criciuma12.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
    1.92
    Check odds @ 1.92
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    Over 5.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 10.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Useful next reads

    full betting preview for Ponte Preta v Criciumacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Ponte Preta0.2
    Avg goals scored
    Criciuma1
    Ponte Preta2.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Criciuma0.2
    Ponte Preta20%
    BTTS rate
    Criciuma20%
    Ponte Preta40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Criciuma0%
    Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
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    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Ponte Preta and 0% for Criciuma, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickPonte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 16% · edge +11 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
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    Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Ponte Preta to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Ponte Preta

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 9L
    03 Jul 2026A Fortaleza EC0-2
    28 Jun 2026A Atletico Goianiense0-2
    23 Jun 2026H Novorizontino0-2
    14 Jun 2026A Juventude0-3
    09 Jun 2026H Cuiaba1-2

    Criciuma

    WWWDW
    Last 54W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 105W 5D 0L
    04 Jul 2026H Sport Recife1-0
    27 Jun 2026H São Bernardo1-0
    24 Jun 2026A America Mineiro1-0
    16 Jun 2026H Ceara1-1
    06 Jun 2026H Londrina1-0
    Market aligned with main pickPonte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 16% · edge +11 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    2.3
    Check odds @ 2.3
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Ponte Preta wins
    6Draws
    2Criciuma wins
    02 Aug 2023Criciuma v Ponte Preta2-1
    22 Apr 2023Ponte Preta v Criciuma1-2
    29 Oct 2022Ponte Preta v Criciuma1-1
    15 Jul 2022Criciuma v Ponte Preta1-1
    09 Apr 2021Criciuma v Ponte Preta1-1
    04 Sep 2019Criciuma v Ponte Preta0-0
    Market aligned with main pickPonte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 16% · edge +11 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Ponte Preta to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Serie B

    Ponte Preta23
    Played
    Criciuma23
    Ponte Preta0.7
    Avg goals for
    Criciuma1.1
    Ponte Preta2.1
    Avg goals against
    Criciuma0.7
    Ponte Preta2
    Clean sheets
    Criciuma11
    Market aligned with main pickPonte Preta to WinBet365 guide price · Model 27% vs implied 16% · edge +11 pts
    6.25
    Check odds @ 6.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Ponte Preta Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 43%
    3.55
    Check odds @ 3.55
    Season data supports Ponte Preta to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Criciuma4423128310
    20Ponte Preta10232417-32
    Ponte Preta sit in position 20, while Criciuma sit in position 1, so table pressure belongs in the Ponte Preta Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Ponte Preta Over 2.5
    0%Criciuma Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ponte Preta sit at 40% and Criciuma sit at 0% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Ponte Preta v Criciuma prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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