Independiente Medellin

Vasco DA Gama

CONMEBOL Sudamericana | Wed 22 Jul, 23:00

Independiente Medellin v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Data last updated: Tue 21 Jul 2026, 04:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Medellin face Vasco DA Gama in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wed 22 Jul, 23:00. Claudio Spinelli’s equaliser ensured that the Brazilian side would begin the return fixture level rather than chasing the tie.

BT4Y match pick

Over 2

At 2.3, Over 2 implies roughly 44%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 40%.
Vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability to score regularly despite defensive gaps.
Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Independiente Medellin.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 40% for Over 2 sits against roughly 44% implied by the current price. Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Independiente Medellin. Vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability to score regularly despite defensive gaps.

Model chance vs price40% model chance against roughly 44% implied

Negative

Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking.Visible data support

Positive

Vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability.Article support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Independiente Medellin Win is the preferred angle because vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability to score regularly despite defensive gaps. Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Independiente Medellin. Vasco da Gama carry the stronger scoring threat, but Independiente Medellin must contribute for BTTS to land.

Main risk

Vasco da Gama carry the stronger scoring threat, but Independiente Medellin must contribute for BTTS to land.

Key Data Signals

Over 2 evidence

Vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability to score regularly despite defensive gaps.

Vasco DA Gama have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Independiente Medellin.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2 notes

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -3.9 pts

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Independiente Medellin to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Independiente Medellin-

Avg goals scored

Vasco DA Gama2

Independiente Medellin-

Avg goals conceded

Vasco DA Gama1.2

Independiente Medellin-

BTTS rate

Vasco DA Gama60%

Independiente Medellin-

Over 2.5 goals

Vasco DA Gama100%

Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 88% vs implied 74% · edge +14.5 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%

3.75

Check odds @ 3.75

BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Independiente Medellin

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Independiente Medellin yet.

Vasco DA Gama

WLWWL

Last 53W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 2L

27 May 2026H Barracas Central3-0

20 May 2026A Olimpia1-3

06 May 2026A A. Italiano2-1

30 Apr 2026H Olimpia3-0

15 Apr 2026H A. Italiano1-2

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -3.9 pts

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

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Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 68%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Independiente Medellin-

Avg corners for

Vasco DA Gama5

Independiente Medellin-

Avg total corners

Vasco DA Gama10.8

Independiente Medellin-

Avg yellow cards

Vasco DA Gama3.4

Independiente Medellin-

Avg shots

Vasco DA Gama14.8

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

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Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price

1.8

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Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Independiente Medellin wins

0Draws

0Vasco DA Gama wins

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -3.9 pts

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Independiente Medellin to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Sudamericana

Independiente Medellin2

Played

Vasco DA Gama12

Independiente Medellin1

Avg goals for

Vasco DA Gama1.6

Independiente Medellin1.5

Avg goals against

Vasco DA Gama0.8

Independiente Medellin0

Clean sheets

Vasco DA Gama7

Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 40% vs implied 44% · edge -3.9 pts

2.3

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Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 50%

1.68

Check odds @ 1.68

Season data supports Independiente Medellin to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Vasco DA Gama	10	6	3	1	2	4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Independiente Medellin Over 2.5

100%Vasco DA Gama Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Vasco’s high attack volume contrasts with Medellin’s ability to score regularly despite defensive gaps.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Independiente Medellin v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Match Report

Over 2

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Medellin

Vasco DA Gama

Next step

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Football Stats Hub

Independiente Medellin v Vasco DA Gama Stats

Match Report

Over 2

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Medellin

Vasco DA Gama

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