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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 crestGuidonia Montecelio 1937
v
Ostia Mare crestOstia Mare

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 15 Nov, 13:30

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 v Ostia Mare Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 02:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 hosts Ostia Mare in a Serie C - Girone B clash where home advantage and recent form strongly favor Guidonia Montecelio 1937. The home side sits comfortably in 7th place with 20 points, showing more attacking intent and resilience compared to Ostia Mare, who languish in 18th with just 9 points. Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has collected 8 points recently, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game, while Ostia Mare struggles with only 1 point and a low scoring rate of 0.2 goals. This match offers a clear tactical edge to the home team, who will look to capitalize on their momentum and superior league position.

BT4Y best bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win

  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has earned 8 points recently versus Ostia Mare's 1 point.
  • Home team averages 1.4 goals per game compared to Ostia Mare's 0.2 goals.
  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ranks 7th with 20 points; Ostia Mare is 18th with 9 points.
  • Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but home side shows stronger scoring consistency.
  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has an 80% BTTS rate, indicating attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to win, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league standing, and more effective attack. The home team’s ability to score consistently at 1.4 goals per game contrasts sharply with Ostia Mare’s low 0.2 goals, highlighting a clear offensive advantage. Defensive metrics also favor Guidonia Montecelio 1937, who concede fewer goals on average. This combination of form, attack, and league context underpins the strong in a home win, supported by a positive at current .

Recent form points8 vs 1
Strong positive
Goals per game1.4 vs 0.2
Strong positive
League position7th vs 18th
Strong positive
BTTS rate80% vs 20%
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals rate40% both teams
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s superior recent form and league position make them the clear favorite to secure victory. Their consistent goal scoring and home advantage provide a tactical and statistical edge over Ostia Mare, who have struggled offensively and defensively this season. This combination supports backing the home win with .

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome

“Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s attacking consistency and higher league standing create a strong foundation for a home victory, especially against a low-scoring Ostia Mare side struggling for form.”

Key Data Signals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win evidence

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has earned 8 points recently versus Ostia Mare's 1 point.

Home team averages 1.4 goals per game compared to Ostia Mare's 0.2 goals.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 ranks 7th with 20 points; Ostia Mare is 18th with 9 points.

Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, but home side shows stronger scoring consistency.

What To Watch In The Data

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal frequency.
  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s higher BTTS rate suggests matches involving them tend to be more open, with goals at both ends, driven by their attacking style and defensive openness.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Guidonia Montecelio 19371.4
Avg goals scored
Ostia Mare0.2
Guidonia Montecelio 19371.4
Avg goals conceded
Ostia Mare1.8
Guidonia Montecelio 193780%
BTTS rate
Ostia Mare20%
Guidonia Montecelio 193740%
Over 2.5 goals
Ostia Mare40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, but Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s 80% BTTS rate suggests they often concede while scoring, indicating open games. Ostia Mare’s low scoring rate and 20% BTTS rate point to fewer goals from their side, suggesting a match with moderate goal potential but likely home control in attack.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGuidonia Montecelio 1937 to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 72.1% for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Guidonia Montecelio 1937 have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for Ostia Mare.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

WDLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
08 Nov 2026A Sambenedettese2-1
31 Oct 2026H Perugia1-1
25 Oct 2026A Torres0-2
17 Oct 2026H Forli3-2
12 Oct 2026A Pescara1-1

Ostia Mare

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
07 Nov 2026H Spezia0-4
01 Nov 2026A Livorno0-1
23 Oct 2026H Vado1-2
18 Oct 2026A Pescara0-2
10 Oct 2026H Pianese0-0
Market aligned with main pickGuidonia Montecelio 1937 to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.45
Check odds @ 1.45
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s recent accumulation of 8 points with an average of 1.4 goals per game contrasts sharply with Ostia Mare’s single point and 0.2 goals scored. This form disparity highlights the home team’s momentum and attacking efficiency, which should translate into control and scoring opportunities in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Over 2.5
40%Ostia Mare Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, both teams have a 40% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating moderate goal frequency. Guidonia Montecelio 1937’s higher BTTS rate suggests matches involving them tend to be more open, with goals at both ends, driven by their attacking style and defensive openness.

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