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Albania crestAlbania

UEFA Nations League | Sun 15 Nov, 17:00

Belarus v Albania Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 11:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Belarus enter this UEFA Nations League fixture on a solid six-match unbeaten streak under coach Viktor Goncharenko, contrasting sharply with Albania's recent struggles, including five consecutive defeats and a significant scoring drought. Albania face additional challenges with key midfield absences and goalkeeper injury, while Belarus bring momentum from recent victories and defensive stability. Despite Albania's unbeaten record in recent head-to-heads against Belarus, the current form and squad issues set the stage for a tightly contested match with Belarus favored to avoid defeat, making the Asian Handicap +1 a prudent selection.

BT4Y best bet

Belarus Asian Handicap +1

  • Belarus remain unbeaten in their last six matches, showing consistent form under Goncharenko.
  • Albania have lost five straight games, scoring only once in that span, highlighting attacking struggles.
  • Key Albania players, including midfielders Qazim Laci and Adrion Pajaziti, are absent, weakening their lineup.
  • Belarus have scored seven goals in three recent wins while conceding only twice, indicating balanced efficiency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The pick leverages Belarus's unbeaten momentum and defensive solidity against Albania's sharp decline and scoring difficulties. Belarus's ability to avoid defeat is supported by their recent form and Albania's personnel challenges. The Asian Handicap +1 offers a safety net with a refund if Albania win narrowly, reflecting the close historical head-to-head but current form disparity. This cautious approach balances the tactical and statistical contrasts, making it a sensible choice despite the competitive nature of the fixture.

Belarus recent form6 matches unbeaten with 3 wins and 3 draws
Strong positive
Albania scoring form1 goal in last 5 matches with 4 blanks
Negative
Albania key absencesMidfielders Laci, Pajaziti and goalkeeper Strakosha out
Negative
Asian Handicap +1 safetyRefund if Albania win by 1 goal
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Belarus's unbeaten run and defensive resilience provide a strong foundation for avoiding defeat against an Albania side struggling with form and key absences. The Asian Handicap +1 offers a pragmatic way to back Belarus, reflecting their momentum and Albania's attacking woes while acknowledging the possibility of a close contest.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match outcome and tactical form

“Belarus's consistent unbeaten streak and Albania's scoring drought set a clear tactical contrast, making the Asian Handicap +1 a smart bet that balances risk and reward in a tight Nations League opener.”

Key Data Signals

Belarus Asian Handicap +1 evidence

Belarus remain unbeaten in their last six matches, showing consistent form under Goncharenko.

Albania have lost five straight games, scoring only once in that span, highlighting attacking struggles.

Key Albania players, including midfielders Qazim Laci and Adrion Pajaziti, are absent, weakening their lineup.

Belarus have scored seven goals in three recent wins while conceding only twice, indicating balanced efficiency.

What To Watch In The Data

Belarus Asian Handicap +1 notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating potential for goals.
  • However, recent form and tactical setups suggest a slower tempo with fewer scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a less likely outcome in this specific fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Belarus1.4
Avg goals scored
Albania2
Belarus0.4
Avg goals conceded
Albania0.6
Belarus0%
BTTS rate
Albania40%
Belarus20%
Over 2.5 goals
Albania60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 48% vs implied 43% · edge +5.2 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 30%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have struggled with scoring recently, especially Albania who have failed to score in four of their last five matches. Belarus's defensive solidity and Albania's attacking drought suggest a low-scoring game with BTTS unlikely, supporting Under 3.5 Goals and BTTS No as plausible outcomes.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBelarus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 36% · edge +8.6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Belarus to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 69.2% for Belarus Asian Handicap +1 sits against roughly 52.6% implied by the current price (+16.6 pts). Armando Broja's omission further changes Maran's options, although Cristian Shpendi arrives with considerable club momentum after scoring six goals in five Serie B appearances.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Belarus

WWWDL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
12 Nov 2026A San Marino2-0
06 Oct 2026H Finland1-0
03 Oct 2026H San Marino4-0
29 Sep 2026A Finland0-0
26 Sep 2026A Albania0-2

Albania

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 1L
12 Nov 2026H Finland2-0
06 Oct 2026H San Marino2-1
03 Oct 2026A Finland1-2
29 Sep 2026A San Marino3-0
26 Sep 2026H Belarus2-0
Market aligned with main pickBelarus Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 36% · edge +8.6 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Belarus to WinBetfred guide price · model 31%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Belarus's six-match unbeaten run, including three wins and three draws, contrasts starkly with Albania's five consecutive defeats and scoring struggles. This form disparity underlines Belarus's and tactical cohesion, while Albania's recent personnel issues and lack of goals highlight their vulnerability in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Belarus Over 2.5
60%Albania Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3, indicating potential for goals. However, recent form and tactical setups suggest a slower tempo with fewer scoring opportunities, making Over 2.5 Goals a less likely outcome in this specific fixture.

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