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Cavese crestCavese
v
Crotone crestCrotone

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 15 Nov, 13:30

Cavese v Crotone Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 17:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cavese hosts Crotone in a Serie C - Girone C clash where Cavese holds a clear advantage in recent form and league standing. Cavese has accumulated 16 points, sitting 11th, while Crotone languishes at the bottom with just 1 point. Cavese's attack has averaged 1.8 goals per game recently, compared to Crotone's 0.8, and their defensive record is marginally better. The home side's momentum and superior offensive output set the stage for a confident Cavese performance, though Crotone's resilience cannot be entirely discounted in this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Cavese to Win

  • Cavese leads the league standings with 16 points; Crotone has only 1 point.
  • Cavese averages 1.8 goals per game recently, double Crotone's 0.8.
  • Cavese has an 80% BTTS rate recently, indicating attacking intent.
  • Cavese's recent form yields 5 points versus Crotone's 1 point in the same period.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 68.4% chance for Cavese to win, reflecting their stronger recent form and higher league position. Cavese's offensive output and better defensive stability underpin this . The of 2.05 offer positive value given the implied chance of 48.8%, making this a solid pick based on statistical and tactical factors. No data limitations affect the assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent form advantageCavese's 5 points vs. Crotone's 1
Strong positive
League standing gapCavese 11th vs. Crotone 20th
Strong positive
Goal scoring rate1.8 vs. 0.8 goals per game
Positive
BTTS rateCavese 80%, Crotone 40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cavese's superior recent form and league position make them the clear favorite in this Serie C fixture. Their higher goal-scoring rate and home advantage provide a tactical edge, while Crotone's struggles suggest limited threat. This combination supports backing Cavese to secure the win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Cavese's consistent attacking pressure and better league standing strongly indicate they will control this match and capitalize on Crotone's defensive vulnerabilities.”

Key Data Signals

Cavese to Win evidence

Cavese leads the league standings with 16 points; Crotone has only 1 point.

Cavese averages 1.8 goals per game recently, double Crotone's 0.8.

Cavese has an 80% BTTS rate recently, indicating attacking intent.

Cavese's recent form yields 5 points versus Crotone's 1 point in the same period.

What To Watch In The Data

Cavese to Win notes

  • In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately open games.
  • Cavese's higher recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 60% compared to Crotone's 40% suggests a tendency towards more attacking play, supporting the possibility of multiple goals in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cavese

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
09 Nov 2026A Team Altamura2-2
31 Oct 2026H AZ Picerno1-2
25 Oct 2026A Foggia0-1
18 Oct 2026H Casarano5-2
12 Oct 2026A Barletta1-1

Crotone

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
07 Nov 2026H Giugliano0-1
01 Nov 2026A Potenza2-4
26 Oct 2026H Casarano0-1
18 Oct 2026A Bari0-0
10 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-3
Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Cavese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Cavese's recent form is markedly stronger, earning 5 points compared to Crotone's single point in the same period. This momentum reflects better team cohesion and effectiveness in both attack and defense, reinforcing their likelihood to secure a home win.

Continue the research

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cavese1.8
Avg goals scored
Crotone0.8
Cavese1.6
Avg goals conceded
Crotone1.8
Cavese80%
BTTS rate
Crotone40%
Cavese60%
Over 2.5 goals
Crotone40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 70% vs implied 58% · edge +12.2 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cavese's recent matches show a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Crotone's lower 40% BTTS rate suggests a more cautious approach. The goal averages support a moderately attacking game from Cavese, likely resulting in goals scored by both sides or at least a competitive attacking display.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCavese to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Cavese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 63.8% for Cavese to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cavese have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crotone.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cavese Over 2.5
40%Crotone Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
In the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating moderately open games. Cavese's higher recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 60% compared to Crotone's 40% suggests a tendency towards more attacking play, supporting the possibility of multiple goals in this fixture.

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