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Cittadella crestCittadella
v
Folgore Caratese crestFolgore Caratese

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 15 Nov, 16:30

Cittadella v Folgore Caratese Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 02:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cittadella leads Serie C - Girone A and hosts struggling Folgore Caratese, who sit bottom of the table. Cittadella's recent form shows defensive solidity with only 0.4 goals conceded per match, while Folgore Caratese has a leaky defense conceding 1.8 goals per game. Both teams have low scoring rates, and Folgore Caratese's attack is particularly limited, averaging just 0.4 goals per match. This clash is likely to be a cautious encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities, reflecting the tactical discipline and stakes for Cittadella to maintain their lead.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Cittadella concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defensive form
  • Folgore Caratese averages only 0.4 goals scored per match, indicating weak attack
  • Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting few matches with goals at both ends
  • Cittadella’s Over 2.5 Goals rate is only 20%, supporting a low-scoring game
  • Folgore Caratese’s defensive struggles have not translated into high-scoring matches overall

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive strengths and low scoring outputs of both teams. Cittadella’s disciplined defense and Folgore Caratese’s limited attacking threat combine to reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The at 1.85 offer positive value given the model’s edge of nearly 12%, making Under 2.5 Goals a sound selection based on recent form and season-long trends. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive
Cittadella Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per match
Strong positive
Folgore Caratese Attack0.4 goals scored per match
Strong positive
BTTS Rate Both Teams20% each, low likelihood of both scoring
Positive
Value Edge66% model chance vs 54.1% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive
Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and limited attacking threat

“Cittadella’s defensive discipline combined with Folgore Caratese’s lack of firepower makes a low-scoring game the most probable outcome in this Serie C clash.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Cittadella concedes just 0.4 goals per game, showing strong defensive form

Folgore Caratese averages only 0.4 goals scored per match, indicating weak attack

Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, suggesting few matches with goals at both ends

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency towards low-scoring games, with Cittadella’s Over 2.5 rate at 20% and Folgore Caratese’s at 40%.
  • The tempo and defensive focus in these fixtures suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cittadella1
Avg goals scored
Folgore Caratese0.4
Cittadella0.4
Avg goals conceded
Folgore Caratese1.8
Cittadella20%
BTTS rate
Folgore Caratese20%
Cittadella20%
Over 2.5 goals
Folgore Caratese40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 54% · edge +11.9 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Both teams have low BTTS rates at 20%, indicating matches rarely see goals at both ends. Cittadella’s tight defense and Folgore Caratese’s weak attack suggest limited goal-scoring chances, reinforcing the likelihood of a low-scoring contest with few goals overall.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cittadella

DWLWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 1D 2L
08 Nov 2026A Giana Erminio0-0
01 Nov 2026H Treviso1-0
24 Oct 2026A Union Brescia1-2
19 Oct 2026H Arzignano Valchiampo1-0
10 Oct 2026A Novara2-0

Folgore Caratese

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
08 Nov 2026H Athletic Carpi0-0
01 Nov 2026H Union Brescia0-4
25 Oct 2026A Lecco2-2
17 Oct 2026H Treviso0-2
11 Oct 2026A Trento0-1
Best odds for this sectionCittadella to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 71% · edge +2.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 38%
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Cittadella Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Folgore Caratese to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
Recent form data shows Cittadella averaging just 1 goal scored and 0.4 conceded per match, while Folgore Caratese scores 0.4 and concedes 1.8. This contrast highlights Cittadella’s defensive strength and Folgore Caratese’s offensive struggles, supporting a low-scoring game under 2.5 goals.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCittadella to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 71% · edge +2.6 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Folgore Caratese Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 38%
4.4
Check odds @ 4.4
Cittadella Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Folgore Caratese to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
6.5
Check odds @ 6.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 38%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.1% implied by the current price (+11.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Cittadella and 40% for Folgore Caratese, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Cittadella Over 2.5
40%Folgore Caratese Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have shown a tendency towards low-scoring games, with Cittadella’s Over 2.5 rate at 20% and Folgore Caratese’s at 40%. The tempo and defensive focus in these fixtures suggest limited goal-scoring opportunities, favoring Under 2.5 Goals.

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