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Cyprus crestCyprus
v
Montenegro crestMontenegro

UEFA Nations League | Sun 15 Nov, 14:00

Cyprus v Montenegro Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 10:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Montenegro hosts Cyprus in this UEFA Nations League clash with a strong historical and competitive edge. Montenegro remains unbeaten in five meetings against Cyprus and holds a 44-place advantage in FIFA rankings. Despite Montenegro's relegation to League C, their recent home form and attacking options, led by Stevan Jovetic and Milutin Osmajic, make them favorites. Cyprus arrives on a three-match unbeaten run, boosted by new attacking additions including Marcus Edwards, increasing their chances to score despite past defensive struggles. This match promises a competitive encounter with both teams likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Montenegro to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Montenegro unbeaten in five meetings with Cyprus, winning two and drawing three.
  • Montenegro holds a 44-place FIFA ranking advantage over Cyprus.
  • Cyprus on a three-match unbeaten run with fresh attacking options.
  • Montenegro scored in 4 of last 7 matches; Cyprus scored in 3 of last 7.
  • Montenegro conceded goals recently, supporting Both Teams to Score.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Montenegro to Win & Both Teams to Score as a strong value bet with a 45.6% chance versus an implied market chance of 26.7%, offering an 18.9% . Montenegro's unbeaten record against Cyprus, solid home form, and superior attacking firepower support the win. Meanwhile, Cyprus's recent unbeaten streak and new attacking players increase the likelihood of them scoring, aligning with Montenegro's tendency to concede. This combination makes the bet a well-reasoned choice with balanced risk and reward.

Montenegro recent scoring1.8 goals per match
Positive
Cyprus recent scoring1.2 goals per match
Positive
Montenegro BTTS rate80%
Strong positive
Cyprus BTTS rate60%
Positive
Historical H2HMontenegro unbeaten in 5 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Montenegro's home advantage and superior attacking options, including seasoned scorers Jovetic and Osmajic, make them strong favorites to win. Cyprus's recent unbeaten run and fresh attacking additions suggest they can breach Montenegro's defense, supporting the Both Teams to Score angle. This bet combines tactical strength and recent form data to offer a compelling prediction for this Nations League fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“Montenegro's unbeaten record and attacking pedigree combined with Cyprus's recent scoring improvements create a compelling case for a home win with goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Montenegro to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Montenegro unbeaten in five meetings with Cyprus, winning two and drawing three.

Montenegro holds a 44-place FIFA ranking advantage over Cyprus.

Cyprus on a three-match unbeaten run with fresh attacking options.

Montenegro scored in 4 of last 7 matches; Cyprus scored in 3 of last 7.

What To Watch In The Data

Montenegro to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2.25, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically.
  • Montenegro's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a high-tempo game with multiple goals, while Cyprus's 40% rate indicates occasional high-scoring games.
  • This trend supports expectations of a lively match with goals from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cyprus1.2
Avg goals scored
Montenegro1.8
Cyprus0.8
Avg goals conceded
Montenegro1
Cyprus60%
BTTS rate
Montenegro80%
Cyprus40%
Over 2.5 goals
Montenegro80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown scoring ability recently, with Montenegro scoring 1.8 goals per game and Cyprus 1.2. Montenegro's 80% BTTS rate and Cyprus's 60% rate support the likelihood of goals at both ends. Despite Montenegro's past clean sheets against Cyprus, recent defensive lapses and Cyprus's unbeaten run suggest both sides will find the net.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisCyprus v Montenegro predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMontenegro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Montenegro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 21.3% for Montenegro to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 13.3% implied by the current price (+8 pts). Montenegro need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Cyprus on 8 and Montenegro on 13. The selection respects Montenegro's higher ranking and Cyprus's potential to score despite previous clean sheets against them.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cyprus

DWWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
12 Nov 2026A Armenia1-1
05 Oct 2026H Latvia2-1
02 Oct 2026H Armenia2-0
28 Sep 2026A Latvia0-0
25 Sep 2026A Montenegro1-2

Montenegro

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 0L
12 Nov 2026H Latvia2-1
05 Oct 2026H Armenia0-0
02 Oct 2026A Latvia2-1
28 Sep 2026A Armenia3-2
25 Sep 2026H Cyprus2-1
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Montenegro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Montenegro to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Montenegro's recent form shows 13 points with 1.8 goals scored and 1 conceded per match, reflecting strong offensive and moderate defensive performance. Cyprus has 8 points, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 goals per match, indicating a resilient but less prolific attack. Both teams' recent matches suggest a competitive game with goals likely from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Cyprus Over 2.5
80%Montenegro Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four meetings, the average goals per match is 2.25, indicating a moderately scoring fixture historically. Montenegro's 80% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a high-tempo game with multiple goals, while Cyprus's 40% rate indicates occasional high-scoring games. This trend supports expectations of a lively match with goals from both sides.

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