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FYR Macedonia crestFYR Macedonia
v
Slovenia crestSlovenia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 16 Nov, 19:45

FYR Macedonia v Slovenia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 03:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Slovenia hosts FYR Macedonia in this UEFA Nations League clash with a solid defensive foundation established by a recent clean sheet against Scotland. Despite limited attacking output, Slovenia's defensive resilience contrasts sharply with FYR Macedonia's ongoing struggles, including an eight-match winless run and a five-game scoring drought. Slovenia's challenge lies in converting defensive stability into goals against a historically tricky opponent that has won four of seven past meetings. The fixture presents a tactical battle where Slovenia aims to leverage home advantage and defensive solidity to secure a vital victory in League B.

BT4Y best bet

Slovenia to Win

  • Slovenia kept a clean sheet in their Nations League opener, showing defensive solidity.
  • FYR Macedonia has failed to score in five consecutive matches, highlighting attacking struggles.
  • FYR Macedonia conceded 16 goals in their last four defeats, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Historical meetings favor FYR Macedonia, but current form strongly supports Slovenia.
  • Slovenia averages 0.6 goals per game, needing to improve attacking output for a win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Slovenia's chances highly at 70%, reflecting their defensive improvement and FYR Macedonia's severe scoring drought. Slovenia's restored defensive stability, anchored by Jan Oblak, combined with FYR Macedonia's recent defensive frailty, creates a favorable environment for a home win. The price at 1.6 offers positive value with a 7.5% edge. However, Slovenia's limited attacking output tempers , making this a solid but not overwhelming value selection.

Slovenia Defensive SolidityStrong recent clean sheet and low goals conceded
Strong positive
FYR Macedonia Scoring DroughtNo goals in last five matches
Strong positive
Historical Head-to-HeadFYR Macedonia unbeaten in last three meetings
Neutral
Slovenia Attacking OutputLow average goals per game (0.6)
Negative
Price Value Edge70% model chance vs 63.7% implied (+6.3 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Slovenia's recent defensive improvements and FYR Macedonia's ongoing scoring struggles make a home win the most plausible outcome. Slovenia's ability to maintain defensive control while finding sharper attacking moments will be decisive. The data supports Slovenia capitalizing on this opportunity to secure three points in a tightly contested match.

Main risk

The concern is not confined to one end.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form analysis

“Slovenia's defensive foundation is solid, but their attack must improve to convert chances against a historically resilient FYR Macedonia. This match hinges on Slovenia's ability to balance control and creativity.”

Key Data Signals

Slovenia to Win evidence

Slovenia kept a clean sheet in their Nations League opener, showing defensive solidity.

FYR Macedonia has failed to score in five consecutive matches, highlighting attacking struggles.

FYR Macedonia conceded 16 goals in their last four defeats, showing defensive vulnerability.

Historical meetings favor FYR Macedonia, but current form strongly supports Slovenia.

What To Watch In The Data

Slovenia to Win notes

  • The last four head-to-head matches average 2.25 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Recent trends show a propensity for under 3 goals, consistent with Slovenia's defensive approach and FYR Macedonia's scoring drought.
  • The tempo and chance quality suggest a controlled game with limited high-quality chances, supporting a trend towards fewer goals and a tactical battle rather than open attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FYR Macedonia0.2
Avg goals scored
Slovenia1
FYR Macedonia2.4
Avg goals conceded
Slovenia0.6
FYR Macedonia20%
BTTS rate
Slovenia40%
FYR Macedonia60%
Over 2.5 goals
Slovenia40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 50% vs implied 46% · edge +4.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 68%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Given FYR Macedonia's five-match scoring drought and Slovenia's defensive solidity, a BTTS No combined with Under 3.5 Goals is plausible. Slovenia's average of 0.6 goals per game and FYR Macedonia's recent defensive lapses suggest limited goal volume. The tactical setup favors a low-scoring game with Slovenia likely to score but FYR Macedonia struggling to respond, supporting a cautious under/BTTS No angle.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsFYR Macedonia v Slovenia predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Slovenia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 70% for Slovenia to Win sits against roughly 63.7% implied by the current price (+6.3 pts). Slovenia have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for FYR Macedonia. Tuesday should test whether Cesar can retain that defensive stability while extracting more from his attack.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FYR Macedonia

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 5L
13 Nov 2026A Scotland1-2
06 Oct 2026A Switzerland0-3
03 Oct 2026H Scotland0-2
29 Sep 2026A Slovenia0-2
26 Sep 2026H Switzerland0-3

Slovenia

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
13 Nov 2026H Switzerland0-0
06 Oct 2026A Scotland2-1
03 Oct 2026A Switzerland1-2
29 Sep 2026H FYR Macedonia2-0
26 Sep 2026H Scotland0-0
Market aligned with main pickSlovenia to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Slovenia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Slovenia's recent form shows defensive improvement with 8 points and a low goals-against average of 0.6, contrasting with FYR Macedonia's 0 points and 2.4 goals conceded per game. Slovenia's ability to keep clean sheets and accumulate points highlights momentum, while FYR Macedonia's ongoing winless streak and scoring drought underline their struggles, favoring Slovenia's winning prospects.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%FYR Macedonia Over 2.5
40%Slovenia Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
The last four head-to-head matches average 2.25 goals, indicating moderate scoring. Recent trends show a propensity for under 3 goals, consistent with Slovenia's defensive approach and FYR Macedonia's scoring drought. The tempo and chance quality suggest a controlled game with limited high-quality chances, supporting a trend towards fewer goals and a tactical battle rather than open attacking play.

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