Football Stats Hub

Germany crestGermany
v
Netherlands crestNetherlands

UEFA Nations League | Mon 16 Nov, 19:45

Germany v Netherlands Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 03:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The UEFA Nations League fixture between Netherlands and Germany marks a fresh chapter as both teams enter new managerial eras with Xavi and Jurgen Klopp at the helm. The Netherlands face significant midfield absences, challenging their defensive cohesion, while Germany seek to end a two-match losing streak with a potent attack led by Kai Havertz and in-form Younes Ebnoutalib. Historically, encounters between these sides are tightly contested, with both teams boasting strong offensive capabilities and undergoing tactical transitions, setting the stage for an open and competitive match in Amsterdam.

BT4Y match pick

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Both teams have shown strong attacking form recently, with Netherlands scoring 2.8 goals per game and Germany 1.2 goals per game in recent matches.
  • Defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides due to absences and tactical adjustments, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.
  • Key forwards like Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo, and Kai Havertz provide significant goal threats for their teams.
  • Historical meetings between Netherlands and Germany often feature goals from both teams, with an average of 3.3 goals per match in their last 10 encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The Both Teams To Score pick is supported by strong attacking form from both Netherlands and Germany, combined with defensive challenges on each side due to injuries and tactical changes. The Netherlands have a high BTTS rate of 80%, while Germany's recent away form includes scoring in most matches. Key attackers such as Cody Gakpo and Kai Havertz are expected to influence the game offensively. This combination of offensive potency and defensive instability underpins the model's 70% chance for BTTS, making it a well-founded selection for this fixture.

Netherlands BTTS Rate80% in recent matches
Strong positive
Germany Away ScoringScored in 8 of last 9 European away games
Positive
Key Attacking PlayersGakpo, Brobbey, Havertz, Ebnoutalib in form
Strong positive
Defensive AbsencesMultiple midfielders missing for Netherlands
Positive
Historical GoalsAverage 3.3 goals per game in last 10 meetings
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams possess strong attacking talent and face defensive challenges, making a goal exchange highly probable. The Netherlands' offensive momentum combined with Germany's consistent away scoring record supports the expectation that both sides will find the net in this Nations League clash.

Main risk

However, his high volume of opposition box touches (21) and proven international pedigree make him a strong candidate to score in Amsterdam.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams To Score

“This fixture features two offensively dynamic teams undergoing tactical transitions, with key attackers poised to exploit defensive gaps. The balance of attacking quality and defensive uncertainty strongly suggests goals at both ends.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Both teams have shown strong attacking form recently, with Netherlands scoring 2.8 goals per game and Germany 1.2 goals per game in recent matches.

Defensive vulnerabilities exist on both sides due to absences and tactical adjustments, increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends.

Key forwards like Brian Brobbey, Cody Gakpo, and Kai Havertz provide significant goal threats for their teams.

Historical meetings between Netherlands and Germany often feature goals from both teams, with an average of 3.3 goals per match in their last 10 encounters.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.3, with a strong trend towards open, attacking matches.
  • The Netherlands' recent 80% Over 2.5 rate and Germany's 20% rate suggest a moderate tempo game with potential for multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Germany1.2
Avg goals scored
Netherlands2.8
Germany0.6
Avg goals conceded
Netherlands1
Germany40%
BTTS rate
Netherlands80%
Germany20%
Over 2.5 goals
Netherlands80%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 47% vs implied 35% · edge +12.5 pts
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have demonstrated strong scoring ability recently, with the Netherlands scoring 2.8 goals per game and Germany maintaining a 40% BTTS rate. Defensive absences and tactical shifts increase the likelihood of goals at both ends, supporting the BTTS Yes scenario.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 55% · edge -2.3 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Netherlands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
The 52.3% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (-2.3 pts). Germany have the higher yellow-card average at 1.2, while Netherlands sit at 1. He has engaged in 26 total duels—winning 13 at a 50% success rate—and has been fouled 5 times himself, reflecting his central involvement in.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Germany

WDWLD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
13 Nov 2026A Serbia3-1
04 Oct 2026A Greece0-0
01 Oct 2026H Serbia2-0
27 Sep 2026H Greece0-1
24 Sep 2026A Netherlands1-1

Netherlands

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 0L
13 Nov 2026H Greece7-0
04 Oct 2026H Serbia2-1
01 Oct 2026A Greece2-2
27 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1
24 Sep 2026H Germany1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Netherlands Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 56%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Netherlands to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
4
Check odds @ 4
Germany Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Germany to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Recent form data shows the Netherlands with 11 points and a high scoring rate, while Germany have 8 points with a more modest goal output. The Netherlands' strong home form and Germany's ability to score away support the likelihood of goals from both teams in this match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Germany Over 2.5
80%Netherlands Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.3, with a strong trend towards open, attacking matches. The Netherlands' recent 80% Over 2.5 rate and Germany's 20% rate suggest a moderate tempo game with potential for multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS outlook.

Loading deeper match data…