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Sorrento crestSorrento
v
SS Monopoli crestSS Monopoli

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 16 Nov, 19:30

Sorrento v SS Monopoli Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 02:00 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SS Monopoli visits Sorrento in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams sit level on 20 points, with Monopoli holding a slight edge in league position. Monopoli's recent form shows more momentum, having secured 8 points compared to Sorrento's 2 in their last matches. Both sides have similar tendencies for over 2.5 goals at 40%, but Monopoli concedes fewer goals on average, suggesting a more balanced defensive setup. The match promises tactical discipline from Monopoli aiming to capitalize on their recent consistency and league standing advantage.

BT4Y best bet

SS Monopoli to Win

  • SS Monopoli has earned 8 points recently versus Sorrento's 2, indicating better form.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring chances.
  • Monopoli concedes an average of 1 goal per game, better than Sorrento's 1.6, showing defensive solidity.
  • League standings are tight but Monopoli holds a higher position with equal points, reflecting competitive edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors SS Monopoli to win with a strong 70% chance, supported by their superior recent form and more effective defense conceding fewer goals per match. Despite similar goal-scoring rates, Monopoli's balance between attack and defense provides a tactical advantage. The price at 2.62 offers positive value given the implied chance is only 38.2%, making this a confident selection. No data quality concerns reduce , reinforcing the pick's strength based on current season and form data.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsMonopoli 8 vs Sorrento 2
Strong positive
Goals Against AverageMonopoli 1.0 vs Sorrento 1.6
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth 40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

SS Monopoli's recent form and defensive stability make them the more likely winner in this tight Serie C fixture. Their ability to limit goals against while maintaining consistent point accumulation suggests tactical discipline and resilience, key factors that should see them edge out Sorrento in this encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Monopoli's balanced approach and recent momentum position them well to exploit Sorrento's defensive vulnerabilities. Their steadier defense and higher league standing underpin a confident away win prediction.”

Key Data Signals

SS Monopoli to Win evidence

SS Monopoli has earned 8 points recently versus Sorrento's 2, indicating better form.

Both teams have a 40% rate for matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting moderate scoring chances.

Monopoli concedes an average of 1 goal per game, better than Sorrento's 1.6, showing defensive solidity.

League standings are tight but Monopoli holds a higher position with equal points, reflecting competitive edge.

What To Watch In The Data

SS Monopoli to Win notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.33, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend suggests a tactical, cautious approach from both sides, with limited open-play chances and a focus on defensive organization, aligning with the moderate over 2.5 goals rate observed in recent form.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Sorrento0.8
Avg goals scored
SS Monopoli1.4
Sorrento1.6
Avg goals conceded
SS Monopoli1
Sorrento60%
BTTS rate
SS Monopoli40%
Sorrento40%
Over 2.5 goals
SS Monopoli40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 48% · edge +9.1 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Both teams have a 40% rate of matches finishing over 2.5 goals, indicating moderate scoring potential. Sorrento's higher goals conceded average contrasts with Monopoli's tighter defense, suggesting goals may come but not in high volume, supporting a controlled attacking game with some goal threat.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Sorrento

LLDDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
08 Nov 2026A Catania0-2
31 Oct 2026H Team Altamura1-2
24 Oct 2026A Inter U231-1
18 Oct 2026H Casertana0-0
11 Oct 2026A Scafatese2-3

SS Monopoli

DDWWL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 5D 1L
08 Nov 2026H Cosenza0-0
31 Oct 2026A Barletta0-0
25 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-0
17 Oct 2026A Inter U234-2
10 Oct 2026A Casertana1-3
Market aligned with main pickSS Monopoli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
SS Monopoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Monopoli's recent accumulation of 8 points compared to Sorrento's 2 highlights a clear momentum advantage. This form difference reflects better tactical execution and squad , which should translate into control and composure during the match, favoring Monopoli's chances to secure victory.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSS Monopoli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
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SS Monopoli Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 35%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
The 53.2% for SS Monopoli to Win sits against roughly 38.2% implied by the current price (+15 pts). SS Monopoli have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 2 for Sorrento.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Sorrento Over 2.5
40%SS Monopoli Over 2.5
1.33H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 1.33, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend suggests a tactical, cautious approach from both sides, with limited open-play chances and a focus on defensive organization, aligning with the moderate over 2.5 goals rate observed in recent form.

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