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Greece crestGreece
v
Serbia crestSerbia

UEFA Nations League | Mon 16 Nov, 19:45

Greece v Serbia Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 03:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Serbia and Greece face off in their UEFA Nations League opener with contrasting challenges. Serbia arrives without key forwards Mitrovic and Vlahovic, relying on the experienced Dusan Tadic to lead a depleted attack, while Greece brings a young but effective squad buoyed by a strong Nations League away record. Serbia's recent defensive struggles and low scoring form contrast with Greece's patient, controlled style and promotion momentum. Both teams have shown limited goal returns in 2026, setting the stage for a tactical, low-scoring encounter at Stadion Rajko Mitic.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 47%, above the 35% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Serbia scored only three goals in six World Cup qualifiers excluding Andorra matches, highlighting attacking struggles.
  • Greece won all four away matches in their previous Nations League campaign, showing effective away performance.
  • Serbia conceded 11 goals in three 2026 friendlies, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Greece is winless in 2026 but maintains a strong away Nations League record, suggesting resilience.
Price warning

Under 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 47% while the model sits nearer 35% (-11.3 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +15 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model identifies Under 2.5 Goals as the best fit given Serbia's limited scoring record outside matches against Andorra and the absence of their main strikers. Greece's recent low-scoring results and strong defensive away record in the Nations League further support a cautious goal expectation. Despite Serbia's defensive fragility, the overall attacking limitations on both sides suggest a low total goals outcome. However, the current market price is short compared to the model's chance, indicating a need for reduced stake or waiting for price improvement.

Serbia's low scoring excluding Andorra3 goals in 6 qualifiers
Strong positive
Greece's strong away Nations League record4 wins in previous away matches
Positive
Serbia's defensive issues in friendlies11 goals conceded in 3 matches
Neutral
Greece's 2026 winless run but low goals0 wins, low scoring
Positive
Market price vs model chance35.2% model chance vs 46.5% implied (-11.3 pts)
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Under 2.5 Goals pick reflects Serbia's ongoing scoring difficulties without their top forwards and Greece's disciplined away performances in the Nations League. Serbia's defensive lapses add some uncertainty, but the tactical setup and recent low-scoring trends suggest a cautious, tight game with limited goal opportunities.

Main risk

Serbia scored nine goals in World Cup qualifying, but six came against Andorra.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based goal expectation

“Serbia's attack is weakened by key absences, while Greece's strong away record in this competition points to a tactical battle likely to keep goals low. Defensive vulnerabilities exist but are unlikely to produce a high-scoring match given both teams' recent form.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Serbia scored only three goals in six World Cup qualifiers excluding Andorra matches, highlighting attacking struggles.

Greece won all four away matches in their previous Nations League campaign, showing effective away performance.

Serbia conceded 11 goals in three 2026 friendlies, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Greece is winless in 2026 but maintains a strong away Nations League record, suggesting resilience.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last six qualifiers and friendlies, Serbia's matches have shown a high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%), but this is skewed by matches against weaker teams.
  • Greece's recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 rate.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 3 goals, but current form and squad changes suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals are more likely in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Greece1
Avg goals scored
Serbia0.8
Greece2
Avg goals conceded
Serbia2.2
Greece40%
BTTS rate
Serbia80%
Greece60%
Over 2.5 goals
Serbia80%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 35% vs implied 47% · edge -11.3 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 87%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 34%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Both teams have shown limited scoring ability in recent matches, with Serbia scoring only three goals in six qualifiers excluding Andorra and Greece winless but defensively solid in 2026. Greece's strong away Nations League record includes multiple clean sheets, supporting a BTTS No and Under 3.5 Goals scenario. The attacking depth is present but not prolific, favoring a low-goal game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Greece to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Serbia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Greece Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Serbia to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
The 35.2% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (-11.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for Greece and 80% for Serbia, so the goals angle is not just a price call. Tadic's experience provides creativity, aiding Serbia's goal chances despite striker absences.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League hubfull betting preview for Greece v Serbiacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Greece

LDDWW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 1L
13 Nov 2026A Netherlands0-7
04 Oct 2026H Germany0-0
01 Oct 2026H Netherlands2-2
27 Sep 2026A Germany1-0
24 Sep 2026A Serbia2-1

Serbia

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 5L
13 Nov 2026H Germany1-3
04 Oct 2026A Netherlands1-2
01 Oct 2026A Germany0-2
27 Sep 2026H Netherlands1-2
24 Sep 2026H Greece1-2
Best odds for this sectionGreece to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 70% · edge +3.6 pts
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
Load more odds for this section
Serbia Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Greece Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Serbia to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
7
Check odds @ 7
DrawBet365 guide price · model 19%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Recent form data shows Greece with 8 points and 1 goal scored in their latest matches, while Serbia has 0 points and 0.8 goals scored, reflecting Serbia's struggles. Both teams have conceded around 2 goals per game, but Greece's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Serbia's 80%, indicating Serbia's matches tend to be higher scoring but their current form suggests otherwise. The Under 2.5 Goals trend aligns with Greece's defensive solidity and Serbia's attacking limitations.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Greece Over 2.5
80%Serbia Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last six qualifiers and friendlies, Serbia's matches have shown a high Over 2.5 Goals rate (80%), but this is skewed by matches against weaker teams. Greece's recent matches show a 60% Over 2.5 rate. The single head-to-head meeting averaged 3 goals, but current form and squad changes suggest a slower tempo and fewer goals are more likely in this fixture.

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