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Spezia crestSpezia
v
Vado crestVado

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 15 Nov, 13:30

Spezia v Vado Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 02:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Spezia, currently top of Serie C - Girone B, face a challenging fixture against 14th-placed Vado. Spezia's strong defensive record contrasts with Vado's more open style, which has led to frequent goals conceded. Recent form data shows Spezia scoring fewer goals but maintaining solidity, while Vado's matches often feature goals at both ends. This clash of styles suggests an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides, setting the stage for a contest where both teams are likely to find the net.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Spezia leads the league with a solid defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game.
  • Vado has a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent goals in their matches.
  • Spezia's matches see BTTS in 40% of games, showing some defensive resilience.
  • Recent form shows Vado scoring 1.8 goals per game but conceding 1.6, suggesting open play.
  • The single head-to-head meeting averaged 3 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 73.3% chance that both teams will score, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating strong value in the BTTS Yes market. Spezia's defensive strength is offset by Vado's attacking tendencies and higher BTTS rate, suggesting both sides have the capacity to score. The recent form data and head-to-head average goals reinforce this likelihood, making BTTS Yes a compelling pick for this fixture.

Model Probability vs Market62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Vado BTTS Rate80%
Strong positive
Spezia Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Neutral
Recent Head-to-Head Goals3 goals average
Positive
Spezia BTTS Rate40%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown tendencies to score in recent matches, with Vado's attacking approach likely to challenge Spezia's defense. The data supports a scenario where both sides find the net, making the BTTS Yes selection a tactically and statistically sound choice for this fixture.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS Yes rationale

“The contrasting styles of Spezia's solid defense and Vado's attacking openness create a natural setup for both teams to score. This BTTS Yes pick aligns well with the tactical dynamics and recent scoring trends in the league.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Spezia leads the league with a solid defense conceding only 0.4 goals per game.

Vado has a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent goals in their matches.

Spezia's matches see BTTS in 40% of games, showing some defensive resilience.

Recent form shows Vado scoring 1.8 goals per game but conceding 1.6, suggesting open play.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last matches and the single head-to-head, the average goals scored is around 3, indicating a tendency towards goal-rich games.
  • Vado's 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Spezia's 40%, suggesting the match tempo and attacking opportunities favor an over 2.5 goals environment, aligning with the BTTS Yes expectation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spezia2
Avg goals scored
Vado1.8
Spezia0.4
Avg goals conceded
Vado1.6
Spezia40%
BTTS rate
Vado80%
Spezia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Vado80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Vado's matches have a high BTTS rate of 80%, often featuring open play and goals at both ends. Spezia's lower BTTS rate of 40% reflects a more cautious approach but does not preclude conceding. The single head-to-head match averaged 3 goals, reinforcing the expectation of goals from both sides in this encounter.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Vado Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Spezia to WinBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Spezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 62.6% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Spezia show a 40% BTTS rate and Vado show a 80% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spezia

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 1D 0L
07 Nov 2026A Ostia Mare4-0
01 Nov 2026H Atalanta II2-1
24 Oct 2026H Latina1-1
18 Oct 2026A Ravenna1-0
10 Oct 2026H Gubbio2-0

Vado

LDWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
07 Nov 2026H Ravenna1-3
31 Oct 2026H Grosseto2-2
23 Oct 2026A Ostia Mare2-1
17 Oct 2026H Sambenedettese2-2
11 Oct 2026A Perugia2-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Vado Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 86%
1.03
Check odds @ 1.03
Vado to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Spezia to WinBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Spezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
5
Check odds @ 5
Spezia's recent form shows strong defensive performances with only 0.4 goals conceded per game, while scoring modestly at 2 goals per game. Vado's form is more attack-oriented, scoring 1.8 goals but conceding 1.6, indicating matches with goals at both ends. This contrast supports the likelihood of both teams scoring in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Spezia Over 2.5
80%Vado Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last matches and the single head-to-head, the average goals scored is around 3, indicating a tendency towards goal-rich games. Vado's 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Spezia's 40%, suggesting the match tempo and attacking opportunities favor an over 2.5 goals environment, aligning with the BTTS Yes expectation.

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