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Lithuania crestLithuania
v
Liechtenstein crestLiechtenstein

UEFA Nations League | Mon 16 Nov, 17:00

Lithuania v Liechtenstein Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 03:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Lithuania and Liechtenstein meet in a UEFA Nations League fixture marked by both teams' recent struggles to find the net. Liechtenstein's severe scoring drought, with only one goal in ten matches during 2025 and 15 defeats in 16 internationals, contrasts with Lithuania's pattern of controlled, low-scoring games, including all four matches in 2026 finishing under 2.5 goals. Lithuania's tactical approach emphasizes possession control and patience, aiming to exploit Liechtenstein's attacking deficiencies. This match is expected to be a tight, low-event contest where efficiency and defensive solidity will be paramount for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Liechtenstein scored only 1 goal in 10 matches during 2025, highlighting their attacking struggles.
  • Nine of Lithuania's last 14 internationals finished with under 3 goals, including all four in 2026.
  • Liechtenstein have lost 15 of their last 16 internationals, showing defensive vulnerabilities but limited offensive threat.
  • Lithuania's recent wins against similar opponents have been achieved with low goal tallies, emphasizing control over high scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, reflecting the strong low-scoring trends for both teams. Liechtenstein's extreme goal scarcity and Lithuania's consistent low-event matches underpin this view. The of 1.73 offer positive value given the implied probability of 57.9%. The tactical context of cautious play and limited attacking output from both sides supports a low total goals outcome. No data limitations affect in this prediction.

Liechtenstein's scoring drought1 goal in 10 matches (2025)
Strong positive
Lithuania's low-scoring matches9 of last 14 under 3 goals
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied chance62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Recent defensive solidityLithuania conceding 0.67 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with Lithuania's tactical control and Liechtenstein's persistent scoring difficulties. Lithuania's ability to manage matches with patience and Liechtenstein's lack of offensive threat make a low-scoring game the most plausible outcome. This bet reflects both teams' recent form and strategic approaches.

Main risk

The risk lies in an unexpected goal from Salanovic or an extra Lithuania goal exceeding the margin.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match scoring dynamics

“Lithuania's steady control and Liechtenstein's attacking struggles create a clear scenario for a low-scoring match, emphasizing efficiency over volume in front of goal.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Liechtenstein scored only 1 goal in 10 matches during 2025, highlighting their attacking struggles.

Nine of Lithuania's last 14 internationals finished with under 3 goals, including all four in 2026.

Liechtenstein have lost 15 of their last 16 internationals, showing defensive vulnerabilities but limited offensive threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently produced low goal totals, with Lithuania's recent fixtures all under 2.5 goals.
  • The head-to-head average goals stand at 2 from a single recent meeting, reinforcing a trend toward tight, low-scoring games shaped by tactical discipline and limited attacking breakthroughs.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lithuania1
Avg goals scored
Liechtenstein0
Lithuania0.67
Avg goals conceded
Liechtenstein1
Lithuania33%
BTTS rate
Liechtenstein0%
Lithuania0%
Over 2.5 goals
Liechtenstein0%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 39%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 65%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Both teams have demonstrated limited attacking output, with Liechtenstein scoring only once in ten matches and Lithuania frequently involved in low-scoring games. The BTTS No angle is supported by Liechtenstein's inability to score and Lithuania's defensive discipline, suggesting a match where one or both sides may fail to find the net, reinforcing the under 3.5 goals context.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more UEFA Nations League analysisfull betting preview for Lithuania v Liechtensteincorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 39% vs implied 25% · edge +14 pts
4
Check odds @ 4
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Liechtenstein to WinBet365 guide price · model 19%
26
Check odds @ 26
DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Lithuania to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
The 62.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Lithuania and 0% for Liechtenstein, so the goals angle is not just a price call. The broader concern is that Lithuania have not regularly turned matches into high-scoring affairs.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lithuania

LDW
Last 51W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 1L
04 Oct 2026A Azerbaijan0-1
27 Sep 2026H Azerbaijan1-1
24 Sep 2026A Liechtenstein2-0

Liechtenstein

LDL
Last 50W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 2L
13 Nov 2026H Azerbaijan0-1
01 Oct 2026A Azerbaijan0-0
24 Sep 2026H Lithuania0-2
Best odds for this sectionLiechtenstein to WinBet365 guide price · Model 19% vs implied 4% · edge +15 pts
26
Check odds @ 26
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DrawBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Lithuania to WinBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Recent form data shows Lithuania earning 4 points with a goals-against average of 0.67, while Liechtenstein has 1 point and no goals scored recently. Neither team has produced matches exceeding 2.5 goals in the current year, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring encounter driven by defensive solidity and attacking inefficiency.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Lithuania Over 2.5
0%Liechtenstein Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, both teams have consistently produced low goal totals, with Lithuania's recent fixtures all under 2.5 goals. The head-to-head average goals stand at 2 from a single recent meeting, reinforcing a trend toward tight, low-scoring games shaped by tactical discipline and limited attacking breakthroughs.

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