Football Stats Hub

Giugliano crestGiugliano
v
Savoia crestSavoia

Serie C - Girone C | Sun 15 Nov, 11:30

Giugliano v Savoia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 02:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Giugliano hosts Savoia in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams are seeking to improve their league standing and form. Giugliano currently sits 13th with 16 points, showing a slightly better recent run compared to 18th-placed Savoia with 12 points. Both sides have struggled defensively, conceding over two goals per game on average, but Giugliano's home advantage and marginally stronger point accumulation suggest a tactical edge. The match promises a competitive battle as Giugliano aims to capitalize on their home form and push for a vital win in this mid-table encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Giugliano to Win

  • Giugliano holds a 58.8% to win, with at 2.25 offering positive value.
  • Giugliano has earned 9 points recently, outperforming Savoia's 5 in the same period.
  • Both teams concede around 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Giugliano's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, matching Savoia's, suggesting potential for goal-scoring opportunities.
  • Savoia's BTTS rate is 80%, but Giugliano's is only 20%, highlighting contrasting attacking styles.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Giugliano to win with a 58.8% chance, reflecting their stronger recent form and home advantage. Despite both teams conceding over two goals per game, Giugliano's ability to secure more points recently and their balanced attack-defense profile underpin this . The at 2.25 present positive value, as the implied chance is significantly lower than the model's probability. Defensive frailties on both sides suggest an open game, but Giugliano's steadier point accumulation and home conditions tilt the edge in their favor.

Model Win Probability58.8%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsGiugliano 9, Savoia 5
Positive
Defensive Concession RateGiugliano 2.2, Savoia 2.0 goals per game
Neutral
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth 60%
Neutral
BTTS RateGiugliano 20%, Savoia 80%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Giugliano's recent form and home advantage make them the tactical favorite to secure victory against Savoia. Their ability to accumulate points more consistently and manage matches at home contrasts with Savoia's struggles, providing a solid data-backed reason to expect a home win in this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Giugliano's steadier recent performances and home setting provide a clear tactical edge over Savoia, whose defensive lapses and inconsistent form make them vulnerable in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Giugliano to Win evidence

Giugliano holds a 58.8% to win, with at 2.25 offering positive value.

Giugliano has earned 9 points recently, outperforming Savoia's 5 in the same period.

Both teams concede around 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Giugliano's over 2.5 goals rate is 60%, matching Savoia's, suggesting potential for goal-scoring opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Giugliano to Win notes

  • In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 1, indicating a low-scoring encounter.
  • However, both teams currently have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a shift towards more open and attacking games recently.
  • This trend points to a fixture that could see multiple goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Giugliano1
Avg goals scored
Savoia1
Giugliano2.2
Avg goals conceded
Savoia2
Giugliano20%
BTTS rate
Savoia80%
Giugliano60%
Over 2.5 goals
Savoia60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 58% · edge +8.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards open games with multiple scoring opportunities. Savoia's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with Giugliano's 20%, suggesting Savoia often concedes and scores, while Giugliano's matches are less likely to see both teams scoring. This dynamic points to a game where Giugliano may edge out Savoia by exploiting defensive gaps.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGiugliano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +14.4 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Giugliano Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 58.8% for Giugliano to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+14.4 pts). Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 5 for Savoia.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Giugliano

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 5L
07 Nov 2026A Crotone1-0
31 Oct 2026H Casertana1-0
25 Oct 2026A Catania0-6
19 Oct 2026H Foggia3-1
13 Oct 2026H Inter U230-4

Savoia

LDDLW
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 6D 3L
08 Nov 2026H Potenza1-3
01 Nov 2026A Salernitana1-1
24 Oct 2026H Cosenza1-1
18 Oct 2026A Audace Cerignola0-4
10 Oct 2026H Inter U232-1
Market aligned with main pickGiugliano to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +14.4 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Giugliano Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Giugliano's recent haul of 9 points surpasses Savoia's 5, reflecting better momentum and . Despite both teams scoring only 1 goal recently, Giugliano's slightly better defensive record and point accumulation indicate a more balanced and effective approach. This form advantage supports Giugliano's chances to secure a home win in this contest.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Giugliano Over 2.5
60%Savoia Over 2.5
1H2H avg goals
In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 1, indicating a low-scoring encounter. However, both teams currently have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting a shift towards more open and attacking games recently. This trend points to a fixture that could see multiple goals, driven by defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent from both sides.

Loading deeper match data…