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Croatia crestCroatia
v
Czech Republic crestCzech Republic

UEFA Nations League | Sun 15 Nov, 19:45

Croatia v Czech Republic Stats

Data last updated: Sun 15 Nov 2026, 11:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Croatia and Czech Republic meet in a UEFA Nations League fixture marked by both teams' recent struggles to maintain defensive solidity. Croatia, under Slaven Bilic's renewed management, bring experience with key players like Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic orchestrating midfield play, while Ante Budimir leads their attack in strong form. Czech Republic, adjusting to life without Patrik Schick, rely on Adam Hlozek and Pavel Sulc to sustain offensive output. Both sides have shown a pattern of scoring and conceding in recent matches, setting the stage for an open contest with attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities on display.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Both teams have scored in six of Czech Republic's last seven matches.
  • Croatia have conceded in nine of their last ten games, with only one clean sheet.
  • Ante Budimir has scored five goals in seven club appearances, boosting Croatia's attack.
  • Czech Republic continue to score regularly despite Schick's retirement, led by Hlozek and Sulc.
  • Both teams' defensive records suggest a high likelihood of goals at both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a strong likelihood (73.3%) that both teams will score, supported by recent match data showing frequent goals conceded and scored by both Croatia and Czech Republic. The attacking prowess of Ante Budimir and the consistent scoring from Czech forwards, combined with defensive lapses on both sides, underpin this prediction. The at 1.6 offer positive value given the model's higher chance estimate. This match's tactical setup, with experienced midfielders facilitating forward play and defensive vulnerabilities, further supports the expectation of goals from both teams.

Model Chance72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Probability72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge72.8% model chance vs 57.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive RecordsBoth teams concede regularly
Strong positive
Attacking FormBudimir and Hlozek key threats
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have demonstrated attacking capabilities but also defensive frailties, making a match with goals at both ends highly probable. Croatia's experienced midfield and Budimir's form combine with Czech Republic's persistent scoring to suggest an open game where both sides find the net.

Main risk

That suggests the post-Schick question is not simply whether they can score, but whether their attacking output can be supported by a tighter defensive performance.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“Croatia's forward momentum meets Czech Republic's resilient attack, but defensive lapses on both sides make a clean sheet unlikely, pointing to a fixture where both teams are expected to score.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Both teams have scored in six of Czech Republic's last seven matches.

Ante Budimir has scored five goals in seven club appearances, boosting Croatia's attack.

Czech Republic continue to score regularly despite Schick's retirement, led by Hlozek and Sulc.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last five matches, the fixture trend shows an average of 3 goals per game, with both teams frequently contributing to the scoreline.
  • This tempo suggests a lively match with attacking intent and defensive gaps, supporting the likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Croatia1
Avg goals scored
Czech Republic0.4
Croatia3.2
Avg goals conceded
Czech Republic2.4
Croatia80%
BTTS rate
Czech Republic40%
Croatia100%
Over 2.5 goals
Czech Republic60%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent matches show both teams scoring frequently: Czech Republic in six of seven games and Croatia in eight of ten. Defensive lapses on both sides have led to few clean sheets, reinforcing the expectation that both teams will find the net in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Czech Republic Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Czech Republic to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 72.8% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Croatia show a 80% BTTS rate and Czech Republic show a 40% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Selection: Both Teams To Score YES.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Croatia

LLLLW
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 4L
12 Nov 2026A England1-2
06 Oct 2026H Spain1-2
03 Oct 2026H England0-7
29 Sep 2026A Spain1-4
26 Sep 2026A Czech Republic2-1

Czech Republic

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 5L
12 Nov 2026H Spain0-2
06 Oct 2026A England0-3
03 Oct 2026A Spain1-3
29 Sep 2026H England0-2
26 Sep 2026H Croatia1-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 54% vs implied 44% · edge +10.3 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Czech Republic Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 82%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Czech Republic to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Croatia to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Croatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Croatia's recent form includes a 3-point haul with a high goals-against average of 3.2, while Czech Republic have struggled, earning no points and conceding 2.4 goals per game. Both teams have high BTTS rates, 80% for Croatia and 40% for Czech Republic, underscoring their tendency to concede and score in matches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Croatia Over 2.5
60%Czech Republic Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, the fixture trend shows an average of 3 goals per game, with both teams frequently contributing to the scoreline. This tempo suggests a lively match with attacking intent and defensive gaps, supporting the likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

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