Finland
San MarinoUEFA Nations League | Sun 15 Nov, 17:00
Finland v San Marino Stats
Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 16:52 UK timeMatch Report
Fixture analysis
Finland face San Marino in UEFA Nations League on Sun 15 Nov, 17:00. 7-0: Finland's winning margin in September's reverse fixture. 10: Consecutive away defeats suffered by San Marino. The prediction for Over 3.5 Goals is based on San Marino's defensive frailty, conceding 4.9 goals per game, and Finland's strong attacking volume and possession.
Over 3
- At 6/10, Over 3 implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
- Finland's recent scoring issues and San Marino's occasional away goals pose risks to this exact scoreline.
- Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for San Marino.
- Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Over 3 angle more than a raw possession edge.
- Finland sit 3 in the table, while San Marino sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Why The Model Likes This Bet
Chance, price and football numbers
The 74% for Over 3 sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for San Marino. Finland's recent scoring issues and San Marino's occasional away goals pose risks to this exact scoreline.
Verdict
BT4Y analyst view
BT4Y analyst view: Finland Win is the preferred angle because finland's recent scoring issues and San Marino's occasional away goals pose risks to this exact scoreline. Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for San Marino. There have been modest signs of improvement, however.
There have been modest signs of improvement, however.
Key Data Signals
Over 3 evidence
Finland's recent scoring issues and San Marino's occasional away goals pose risks to this exact scoreline.
Finland have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 0 for San Marino.
Finland have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Finland Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
Finland sit 3 in the table, while San Marino sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
What To Watch In The Data
Over 3 notes
Goals, BTTS and over/under
Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.
No priced odds are available for this section yet.
Continue the research
Useful next reads
Market odds
Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.
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Recent form
Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.
Finland
San Marino
No priced odds are available for this section yet.
Key match trends
Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.
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