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UEFA Nations League | Sun 15 Nov, 19:45

Spain v England Stats

Data last updated: Sat 14 Nov 2026, 10:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The UEFA Nations League clash between Spain and England at Wembley presents a high-stakes encounter featuring two teams with contrasting recent momentum. Spain arrives on the back of five consecutive wins, including their World Cup triumph, showcasing a potent attack and disciplined defensive structure. England, under Thomas Tuchel, have displayed attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities, compounded by key midfield absences reshaping their central defensive setup. The tactical battle will revolve around Spain's possession control and wide play against England's high press and transition threat, setting the stage for a competitive and intense match likely to test discipline and physicality.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

  • Spain have won five consecutive matches, scoring nine goals and conceding just one in that run.
  • England have scored 14 goals in their last five matches but have conceded 20 goals in their last six fixtures, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Both teams average around six corners per game, reflecting balanced territorial exchanges and attacking opportunities.
  • Disciplinary data shows Spain average 1.2 yellow cards per game, England 1.0, supporting a market for multiple cards in a high-intensity fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 52.3% chance for Over 3.5 Cards, reflecting the expected physical intensity and tactical duels in this Nations League fixture. England's defensive reshuffle and Spain's attacking pressure increase the likelihood of fouls and cautions. Player-level data highlights individuals like Víctor Muñoz with high foul and card involvement, while Bukayo Saka's dribbling style draws frequent fouls, further supporting the card count. The balanced average yellow cards per game for both teams and the competitive stakes suggest a match prone to disciplinary actions. No price warning is needed as the market aligns well with the .

England Defensive VulnerabilityConceded 20 goals in last 6 matches
Strong positive
Spain Winning Momentum5 consecutive wins with strong attack
Positive
Player Card RiskVíctor Muñoz averages 1.14 yellows and 4.56 fouls per 90
Strong positive
Fouls Drawn by Key PlayersBukayo Saka wins 15 fouls in 5 Premier League games
Positive
Average Yellow CardsSpain 1.2, England 1.0 per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged contest with tactical battles across midfield and wide areas. England's defensive reshaping and Spain's attacking depth create scenarios for frequent fouls and cautions. The combination of high stakes and contrasting styles supports a bet on Over 3.5 Cards as both teams seek to assert control and disrupt opposition rhythm.

Main risk

However, Saka's regular involvement in the penalty area—highlighted by 30 touches in the opposition box this term—provides a reliable route to testing the goalkeeper.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture's tactical intensity and personnel matchups almost guarantee a high card count, as both teams rely on aggressive pressing and physical duels to gain advantage.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Spain have won five consecutive matches, scoring nine goals and conceding just one in that run.

England have scored 14 goals in their last five matches but have conceded 20 goals in their last six fixtures, indicating defensive frailty.

Both teams average around six corners per game, reflecting balanced territorial exchanges and attacking opportunities.

Disciplinary data shows Spain average 1.2 yellow cards per game, England 1.0, supporting a market for multiple cards in a high-intensity fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 4, indicating open, attacking games.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a high-tempo game with transitions and scoring opportunities that often lead to tactical fouls and increased card counts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Spain2.8
Avg goals scored
England3.2
Spain1
Avg goals conceded
England0.8
Spain80%
BTTS rate
England40%
Spain80%
Over 2.5 goals
England80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 63% · edge +15 pts
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Both Spain and England have high goal-scoring rates, with Spain averaging 2.8 and England 3.2 goals per game, and both teams showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Spain's 80% BTTS rate contrasts with England's 40%, indicating Spain's consistent scoring but England's more variable defensive solidity, suggesting an open game with scoring chances for both sides.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
England Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
England to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Spain Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 51% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+5.5 pts). Spain have the higher yellow-card average at 1.5, while England sit at 0.5. High-stakes international competitive fixtures frequently test physical discipline, particularly when direct positional battles emerge across the pitch.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Spain

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 0L
12 Nov 2026A Czech Republic2-0
06 Oct 2026A Croatia2-1
03 Oct 2026H Czech Republic3-1
29 Sep 2026H Croatia4-1
26 Sep 2026A England3-2

England

WWWWL
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 1L
12 Nov 2026H Croatia2-1
06 Oct 2026H Czech Republic3-0
03 Oct 2026A Croatia7-0
29 Sep 2026A Czech Republic2-0
26 Sep 2026H Spain2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 48% · edge +12.2 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
England Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 42%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
England to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Spain Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 61%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Spain to WinBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Recent form data shows Spain with 15 points and England with 12 in their last matches, both teams averaging 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Spain's defensive solidity contrasts with England's higher goals conceded, indicating a match where attacking intent and defensive lapses may increase fouls and cards, supporting the Over 3.5 Cards market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Spain Over 2.5
80%England Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals tally is 4, indicating open, attacking games. Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, suggesting a high-tempo game with transitions and scoring opportunities that often lead to tactical fouls and increased card counts.

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