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Egypt crestEgypt
v
Iran crestIran

World Cup | Sat 27 Jun, 04:00

Egypt v Iran Stats

Data last updated: Tue 11 Aug 2026, 17:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Egypt face Iran in World Cup on Sat 27 Jun, 04:00. Group G control, counter-attacks and a very tense Seattle showdown. Nobody in this match has lost yet, which sounds calm enough until you remember that unbeaten records in tournament football can disappear quicker than a defender spotting Mohamed Salah running into space.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Draw

  • At 11/5, Draw implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 25%.
  • Iran proved their defensive stability by securing a 0-0 draw against Belgium, proving they can absorb elite structural pressure.
  • Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iran.
  • Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Draw is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 31% while the model sits nearer 25% (-6.2 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Egypt Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 1.98.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 25% for Draw sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iran. Iran proved their defensive stability by securing a 0-0 draw against Belgium, proving they can absorb elite structural pressure.

Model chance vs price25% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Iran proved their defensive stability by securing a 0-0.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because iran proved their defensive stability by securing a 0-0 draw against Belgium, proving they can absorb elite structural pressure. Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iran. A draw may still help Team Melli, but it would leave them more exposed to what happens elsewhere.

Main risk

A draw may still help Team Melli, but it would leave them more exposed to what happens elsewhere.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Iran proved their defensive stability by securing a 0-0 draw against Belgium, proving they can absorb elite structural.

Egypt have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 2 for Iran.

Egypt have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Draw angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Egypt5
    Avg corners for
    Iran3
    Egypt8
    Avg total corners
    Iran5.5
    Egypt1.5
    Avg yellow cards
    Iran1
    Egypt16.5
    Avg shots
    Iran12
    Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.7 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 30%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 36%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    World Cup fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Egypt v Irancorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Egypt2
    Avg goals scored
    Iran1
    Egypt1
    Avg goals conceded
    Iran1
    Egypt100%
    BTTS rate
    Iran50%
    Egypt50%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Iran50%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
    5
    Check odds @ 5
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 25% vs implied 38% · edge -13.1 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Egypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Egypt to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Iran to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Draw is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Egypt

    WD
    Last 51W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 0L
    22 Jun 2026A New Zealand3-1
    15 Jun 2026A Belgium1-1

    Iran

    DD
    Last 50W 2D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 2D 0L
    21 Jun 2026A Belgium0-0
    16 Jun 2026H New Zealand2-2
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 25% vs implied 38% · edge -13.1 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Egypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Egypt to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Iran to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Iran Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 50%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Egypt wins
    0Draws
    0Iran wins
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBetfred guide price · Model 25% vs implied 38% · edge -13.1 pts
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Egypt to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Iran to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Draw, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Egypt5
    Played
    Iran3
    Egypt1.8
    Avg goals for
    Iran1
    Egypt1.4
    Avg goals against
    Iran1
    Egypt0
    Clean sheets
    Iran1
    Best odds for this sectionEgypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Load more odds for this section
    Egypt to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
    2.7
    Check odds @ 2.7
    Iran to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
    3.25
    Check odds @ 3.25
    Iran Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports Egypt Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Egypt531202
    3Iran330300
    9Iran330300
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    50%Egypt Over 2.5
    50%Iran Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Egypt sit at 50% and Iran sit at 50%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Egypt v Iran prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    World Cup hubWorld Cup fixtures and predictionsfull betting preview for Egypt v Irancorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hub

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre