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Egypt crestEgypt
v
Iran crestIran

World Cup | Sat 27 Jun, 04:00

Egypt v Iran Stats

Data last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026, 04:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Group G clash in the World Cup sees Egypt leading the group with four points from two matches, boasting the sharpest attack in the section with four goals scored. Iran, unbeaten but winless, have secured two draws and demonstrated defensive resilience, notably a 0-0 draw against Belgium. The tactical battle will revolve around Egypt's ability to control transitions and exploit wide spaces left by advancing full-backs, while Iran aims to maintain defensive compactness and counter quickly through wide channels. Both teams face high stakes with qualification on the line, setting up a tense, tactical encounter in Seattle.

BT4Y best bet

Egypt to Win

  • Egypt have scored 4 goals in 2 Group G matches, showing strong attacking efficiency.
  • Iran have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 fixtures, highlighting defensive solidity.
  • Mohamed Salah's movement and finishing provide Egypt with a key match-winning threat.
  • Iran's 0-0 draw with Belgium underlines their capacity to absorb pressure and frustrate opponents.
  • Group standings create tactical tension: Egypt can secure top spot with a win or draw, Iran must win to advance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Egypt to Win with a 59% chance, reflecting their superior attacking output and group position. Egypt's ability to score in 13 of their last 18 matches and the presence of match-winner Mohamed Salah underpin this . Iran's defensive strength limits scoring but their inability to convert shot volume into wins suggests Egypt's sharper edge. The price at 7/5 offers positive value with a 17.3% edge, supported by tactical and statistical evidence. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance59%
Strong positive
match context Tactical ReadEgypt's attacking depth and transition control
Strong positive
defensive organisationIran's compactness but limited offensive conversion
Positive
Price Value Edge+17.3%
Strong positive
Data QualityComprehensive data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Egypt's superior attacking efficiency and tactical flexibility give them the edge in this crucial Group G match. Their ability to control transitions and capitalize on individual quality like Mohamed Salah should break down Iran's disciplined defense. Iran's resilience is notable, but their limited offensive threat reduces their chances of securing a win here.

Main risk

The main risk is Egypt's full-backs pushing high without sufficient midfield cover, which Iran can exploit with quick vertical transitions to create scoring opportunities.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Egypt's blend of attacking depth and tactical adaptability, led by Mohamed Salah, makes them the most likely to secure victory in this tightly poised World Cup group clash.”

Key Data Signals

Egypt to Win evidence

Egypt have scored 4 goals in 2 Group G matches, showing strong attacking efficiency.

Iran have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 6 fixtures, highlighting defensive solidity.

Mohamed Salah's movement and finishing provide Egypt with a key match-winning threat.

Iran's 0-0 draw with Belgium underlines their capacity to absorb pressure and frustrate opponents.

What To Watch In The Data

Egypt to Win notes

  • Over the last two group matches, Egypt have scored four goals, while Iran have kept three clean sheets in six recent fixtures.
  • Both teams have a 50% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced trend where goals are possible but the defensive discipline, especially from Iran, may keep the game tight and low scoring.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Egypt5
Avg corners for
Iran3
Egypt8
Avg total corners
Iran5.5
Egypt1.5
Avg yellow cards
Iran1
Egypt16.5
Avg shots
Iran12
Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 54% vs implied 48% · edge +6.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 30%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 36%
2
Check odds @ 2
Egypt average 16.5 shots and 5 corners per game, indicating sustained offensive pressure and territorial control. Iran's lower averages (12 shots, 3 corners) and disciplined fouling profile (1 yellow card per game) reflect a compact, patient defensive style aimed at limiting Egypt's chances and maintaining structure.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Egypt2
Avg goals scored
Iran1
Egypt1
Avg goals conceded
Iran1
Egypt100%
BTTS rate
Iran50%
Egypt50%
Over 2.5 goals
Iran50%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 48% · edge +27.4 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 32%
5
Check odds @ 5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 29%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Egypt's four goals in two group matches contrast with Iran's more defensive approach, including three clean sheets in six games. Both teams have a 50% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent form, but Egypt's consistent scoring and Iran's defensive solidity suggest a likely low-scoring game with Egypt edging a narrow win.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 42% · edge +17 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Egypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 36%
2
Check odds @ 2
The of 7/5 for Egypt to Win reflect a market recognition of their attacking superiority and group leadership. The model's 59% chance and 17.3% indicate this price is attractive rather than overpriced, suggesting a positive value bet rather than a price-sensitive watch.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Egypt

WD
Last 51W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 0L
22 Jun 2026A New Zealand3-1
15 Jun 2026A Belgium1-1

Iran

DD
Last 50W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 0L
21 Jun 2026A Belgium0-0
16 Jun 2026H New Zealand2-2
Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 42% · edge +17 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Egypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Egypt's recent form shows four points from two matches with a strong attacking output of two goals scored and one conceded, while Iran have two points with a more defensive record of one goal scored and conceded. Both teams have a 50% Over 2.5 goals rate recently, but Egypt's sharper finishing and momentum favor their chances to secure a win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Egypt wins
0Draws
0Iran wins
Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 42% · edge +17 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 75%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
There are no previous head-to-head matches between Egypt and Iran to provide direct historical context. Therefore, current form, tactical setups, and player quality are more relevant indicators for this fixture's outcome.
Season team stats

World Cup

Egypt2
Played
Iran2
Egypt2
Avg goals for
Iran1
Egypt1
Avg goals against
Iran1
Egypt0
Clean sheets
Iran1
Market aligned with main pickEgypt to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 42% · edge +17 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Egypt Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Egypt's season-long data reveals a potent attack with goals in 13 of their last 18 matches and an average of 16.5 shots per game, supporting their ability to break down defenses. Iran's defensive metrics, including three clean sheets in six matches, highlight their structural resilience but limited offensive conversion, aligning with a narrow victory scenario for Egypt.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Egypt421102
2Iran220200
Egypt lead Group G with four points, placing them in a strong position to qualify as group winners with a win or draw. Iran sit second with two points and must win to advance, creating tactical urgency. This standing context intensifies the match stakes and influences cautious but decisive tactical approaches from both sides.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Egypt Over 2.5
50%Iran Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last two group matches, Egypt have scored four goals, while Iran have kept three clean sheets in six recent fixtures. Both teams have a 50% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, suggesting a balanced trend where goals are possible but the defensive discipline, especially from Iran, may keep the game tight and low scoring.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Egypt v Iran prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Competition and hubs

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Next step

Betting context

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