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Ligue 1 | Fri 30 Oct, 20:05

Lille v Lens Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 14:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The Derby du Nord between Lille and Lens promises a compelling Ligue 1 clash with significant stakes near the top of the table. Lille, sitting third, have a strong home record against Lens, winning their last four home league meetings and conceding just once in that span. Despite recent form challenges and defensive lapses exposed in European competition, Lille's home advantage remains a key factor. Lens arrive on the back of three consecutive league wins, showcasing improved attacking prowess led by players like Florian Thauvin and Thorgan Hazard. However, their away defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded in every away match this season, set the stage for an open contest with goals at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Lille to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Lille have won their last four home league matches against Lens, conceding only once in that period.
  • Lens have conceded in every away game this season, allowing multiple goals on five occasions.
  • Both teams have scored in seven of Lens' eight Ligue 1 matches this season, highlighting consistent attacking output.
  • Lille's recent Champions League defensive struggles suggest vulnerabilities that Lens can exploit.
  • Lens have won three consecutive league matches, scoring seven goals, indicating strong attacking momentum.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Lille to win with both teams scoring due to Lille's dominant home record against Lens and Lens's consistent scoring but fragile away defense. Lille's recent defensive issues in European matches are offset by their ability to capitalize on Lens's defensive lapses. Lens's attacking form under new management further justifies the expectation of goals from both sides. While the price is slightly short, the combination of home advantage, attacking momentum, and defensive vulnerabilities creates a credible chance for this outcome. Reduced staking is advised given the price sensitivity.

home controlLille's four consecutive home wins vs Lens
Strong positive
Away defensive weaknessLens conceded in every away match this season
Strong positive
Attacking formLens scored in 7 of 8 Ligue 1 matches
Positive
Recent defensive lapsesLille conceded 7 goals in last two Champions League games
Neutral
Price sensitivity24.5% model chance vs 23.8% implied (+0.7 pts)
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Lille's strong home record against Lens and Lens's persistent defensive frailties away from home underpin the pick for Lille to win with both teams scoring. Lille's ability to exploit Lens's defensive gaps combined with Lens's attacking improvements suggests an open game with goals at both ends. This bet balances tactical home advantage with Lens's scoring consistency.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and scoring dynamics

“Lille's home control in this derby, paired with Lens's inability to keep clean sheets away, makes a compelling case for a competitive match where both sides find the net but Lille edge the win.”

Key Data Signals

Lille to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Lille have won their last four home league matches against Lens, conceding only once in that period.

Lens have conceded in every away game this season, allowing multiple goals on five occasions.

Both teams have scored in seven of Lens' eight Ligue 1 matches this season, highlighting consistent attacking output.

Lille's recent Champions League defensive struggles suggest vulnerabilities that Lens can exploit.

What To Watch In The Data

Lille to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, supporting a moderately open game.
  • Lens's 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Lille's 20%, indicating Lens's matches tend to be higher scoring.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both teams suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the combined pick.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Lille1.2
Avg goals scored
Lens2
Lille0.8
Avg goals conceded
Lens1.4
Lille60%
BTTS rate
Lens100%
Lille20%
Over 2.5 goals
Lens100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 64% · edge +12.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have shown consistent scoring patterns, with Lens scoring in seven of eight league matches and Lille maintaining a 60% BTTS rate. Lens's defensive struggles away and Lille's Champions League concessions support a match with goals at both ends, making the BTTS element credible alongside Lille's home win prospects.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickLille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 53% · edge -7.6 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Lille to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
The 24.5% for Lille to Win & Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 23.8% implied by the current price (+0.7 pts). Lille need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Lille on 8 and Lens on 10. Lens hold the stronger winning edge, while Lille still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Lille

DDWLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 1L
25 Oct 2026A Monaco1-1
17 Oct 2026H Stade Brestois 291-1
10 Oct 2026H Le Havre1-0
20 Sep 2026A Nice1-2
13 Sep 2026H Estac Troyes2-0

Lens

WWWLD
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Paris FC2-1
17 Oct 2026A Estac Troyes3-1
09 Oct 2026H Lyon2-1
18 Sep 2026A Monaco1-2
13 Sep 2026A Le Mans2-2
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 67% · edge -8.7 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Lille Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Lille to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Lille have earned 8 points from their last five matches, showing some struggle with only one win in six competitive games, while Lens have gained 10 points with three consecutive league wins. Lens's momentum contrasts with Lille's recent defensive lapses, but Lille's home form against Lens remains a strong counterbalance, suggesting a tight contest with Lille favored.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Lille Over 2.5
100%Lens Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 2.4, supporting a moderately open game. Lens's 100% over 2.5 goals rate this season contrasts with Lille's 20%, indicating Lens's matches tend to be higher scoring. The tempo and attacking intent from both teams suggest a match likely to feature multiple goals, aligning with the combined pick.

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