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AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde
v
AFC Hornchurch crestAFC Hornchurch

National League | Fri 30 Oct, 19:45

AFC Fylde v AFC Hornchurch Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 18:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AFC Fylde hosts AFC Hornchurch in a National League clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Fylde sits 7th with 26 points, while Hornchurch is 13th with 21 points, making this fixture important for both sides aiming to climb the table. Recent form indicates openness in matches, with Fylde conceding an average of 2 goals per game and Hornchurch 1.6, suggesting potential for a high-scoring encounter under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have recent matches with high goal totals, supporting Over 3.5 Goals.
  • Fylde concedes 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Hornchurch's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, showing frequent high-scoring games.
  • Both sides average 1.2 goals scored per match, contributing to attacking potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 49.5% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, slightly above the implied market chance of 47.6%, indicating a small positive . Both teams have shown tendencies for open play and conceding multiple goals, with Hornchurch especially involved in high-scoring matches. The attacking and defensive stats align with a game likely to produce at least four goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a sensible selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance49.5% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+1.9 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance49.5% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+1.9 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge49.5% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+1.9 pts)
Positive
Recent Defensive RecordsFylde concedes 2.0, Hornchurch 1.6 goals per game
Positive
Hornchurch Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both AFC Fylde and AFC Hornchurch have shown defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency for high-scoring matches. The data supports a lively encounter with multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice based on recent form and season-long trends.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“This fixture promises end-to-end action given both sides' defensive records and attacking intent, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical angle to explore for bettors seeking excitement and value.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have recent matches with high goal totals, supporting Over 3.5 Goals.

Fylde concedes 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive frailty.

Hornchurch's over 2.5 goals rate is 80%, showing frequent high-scoring games.

Both sides average 1.2 goals scored per match, contributing to attacking potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Although no head-to-head data exists, recent trends over the last five matches for both teams indicate a high tempo and frequent goal-scoring, especially for Hornchurch with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate.
  • This suggests the fixture is likely to produce multiple goals through open play and transitions.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Fylde1.2
Avg goals scored
AFC Hornchurch1.2
AFC Fylde2
Avg goals conceded
AFC Hornchurch1.6
AFC Fylde40%
BTTS rate
AFC Hornchurch60%
AFC Fylde60%
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Hornchurch80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 50% vs implied 48% · edge +1.9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have shown a propensity for matches with multiple goals and mixed BTTS rates, with Hornchurch's 80% over 2.5 goals rate particularly notable. Fylde's lower BTTS rate suggests some matches end with one side shut out, but overall, the attacking and defensive profiles point to a game likely exceeding three goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
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AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
AFC Fylde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 49.5% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+1.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 60% for AFC Fylde and 80% for AFC Hornchurch, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Fylde

WLWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
27 Oct 2026H Hartlepool3-1
24 Oct 2026A Boreham Wood0-4
10 Oct 2026H Scunthorpe2-0
03 Oct 2026A Southend1-3
29 Sep 2026H Carlisle0-2

AFC Hornchurch

LLWLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
27 Oct 2026H Yeovil Town1-2
24 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-2
10 Oct 2026H Eastleigh2-0
03 Oct 2026A Harrogate Town0-3
29 Sep 2026H Aldershot Town2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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AFC Hornchurch Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
AFC Hornchurch to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4
Check odds @ 4
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
AFC Fylde Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
AFC Fylde to WinBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Recent form shows both AFC Fylde and AFC Hornchurch involved in matches with multiple goals, with Fylde's over 2.5 goals rate at 60% and Hornchurch's at 80%. This trend supports an expectation of a high-scoring game, reflecting the teams' current offensive and defensive dynamics.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%AFC Fylde Over 2.5
80%AFC Hornchurch Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Although no head-to-head data exists, recent trends over the last five matches for both teams indicate a high tempo and frequent goal-scoring, especially for Hornchurch with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate. This suggests the fixture is likely to produce multiple goals through open play and transitions.

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