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Corinthians crestCorinthians
v
Mirassol crestMirassol

Serie A | Fri 30 Oct, 23:00

Corinthians v Mirassol Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 08:28 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features Corinthians, struggling near the relegation zone with just 33 points, against Mirassol, who sit slightly above with 37 points. Corinthians have been conceding heavily, allowing 2.6 goals per game recently, while Mirassol's defense is notably stingy, conceding only 0.6 goals per match. Mirassol's recent form is markedly better, collecting 8 points in their last fixtures compared to Corinthians' single point. The tactical setup suggests Mirassol's disciplined defense and sharper attacking threat could exploit Corinthians' vulnerabilities in this crucial late-season encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Mirassol to Win

  • Mirassol has a strong recent run with 8 points versus Corinthians' 1 point.
  • Corinthians concede 2.6 goals per game recently, Mirassol only 0.6.
  • Mirassol's defensive solidity contrasts with Corinthians' leaky backline.
  • Mirassol ranks higher in the table and shows better form momentum.
  • Mirassol's attacking players generate more shots on target per 90 minutes.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Mirassol to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Despite the long of 4.75, the implied chance is just 21.1%, creating a significant of nearly 49%. Mirassol's compact defense and effective counter-attacks, combined with Corinthians' defensive frailties and poor recent results, underpin this confident prediction. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing the model's reliability here.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge36.1% model chance vs 21.1% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormMirassol concedes 0.6 goals vs Corinthians 2.6
Strong positive
Recent Points AccumulatedMirassol 8 vs Corinthians 1
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mirassol's disciplined defense and sharper recent form make them a compelling pick to win this match. Corinthians' defensive struggles and poor momentum provide a clear tactical and statistical edge for Mirassol to secure victory in this Serie A fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mirassol's compact defensive structure and efficient attack create a strong foundation for an upset against a vulnerable Corinthians side struggling for form and goals.”

Key Data Signals

Mirassol to Win evidence

Mirassol has a strong recent run with 8 points versus Corinthians' 1 point.

Corinthians concede 2.6 goals per game recently, Mirassol only 0.6.

Mirassol's defensive solidity contrasts with Corinthians' leaky backline.

Mirassol ranks higher in the table and shows better form momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Mirassol to Win notes

  • In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.33, indicating moderately open contests.
  • However, Mirassol's recent defensive improvements and Corinthians' leaky defense suggest this match could see fewer goals from Corinthians' side, with Mirassol aiming to control tempo and limit chances, aligning with a cautious over 2.5 goals outlook.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Corinthians1.2
Avg goals scored
Mirassol1.2
Corinthians2.6
Avg goals conceded
Mirassol0.6
Corinthians100%
BTTS rate
Mirassol40%
Corinthians80%
Over 2.5 goals
Mirassol0%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Corinthians have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals and 100% BTTS rate recently, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Mirassol, however, have a 0% over 2.5 rate and only 40% BTTS rate, reflecting a more defensive approach. This contrast suggests a tactical battle where Mirassol's defense could limit scoring, supporting a close game with fewer goals from their side.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Mirassol Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 36.1% for Mirassol to Win sits against roughly 21.1% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Mirassol have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 1 for Corinthians.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Corinthians

LDLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 9L
24 Oct 2026A Vasco DA Gama2-3
20 Oct 2026H Vitoria1-1
11 Oct 2026A Palmeiras1-4
07 Oct 2026A Internacional1-2
20 Sep 2026H Fluminense1-3

Mirassol

DWLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
24 Oct 2026H Sao Paulo1-1
17 Oct 2026H Internacional2-0
11 Oct 2026A Bahia0-1
07 Oct 2026A RB Bragantino1-1
19 Sep 2026H Botafogo2-0
Market aligned with main pickMirassol to WinBetfred guide price · Model 36% vs implied 21% · edge +15 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Mirassol Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Mirassol's recent form is strong, accumulating 8 points in their last matches while conceding only 0.6 goals per game. Corinthians have struggled, earning just 1 point and conceding 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. This form disparity favors Mirassol, who appear more confident and organized heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Corinthians Over 2.5
0%Mirassol Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
In the last nine head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.33, indicating moderately open contests. However, Mirassol's recent defensive improvements and Corinthians' leaky defense suggest this match could see fewer goals from Corinthians' side, with Mirassol aiming to control tempo and limit chances, aligning with a cautious over 2.5 goals outlook.

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