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Independiente Medellin crestIndependiente Medellin
v
Flamengo crestFlamengo

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Fri 08 May, 01:30

Independiente Medellin v Flamengo Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 16:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Independiente Medellin face Flamengo in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Fri 08 May, 01:30. Flamengo's superior quality and unbeaten group record make them favourites, although Medellin's domestic pressure adds unpredictable emotional volatility. Before losing to Aguilas Doradas, Medellin had won three consecutive matches at the Atanasio Girardot, conceding just once during that run.

BT4Y best bet

Independiente Medellin Win

  • At 15/2, Independiente Medellin Win implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 35%.
  • Flamengo's attacking power is undeniable with 61 goals this season, but defensive lapses have seen them concede late in recent matches.
  • Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Flamengo.
  • Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Medellin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 35% for Independiente Medellin Win sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Flamengo. Flamengo's attacking power is undeniable with that scoring level this season, but defensive lapses have seen them concede late in recent matches.

Model chance vs price35% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Flamengo's attacking power is undeniable with 61 goals this.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Independiente Medellin Win is the preferred angle because flamengo's attacking power is undeniable with that scoring level this season, but defensive lapses have seen them concede late in recent matches. Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Flamengo. The Copa Libertadores rarely lacks tension, but Friday night at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot arrives with the air of a club fighting itself as much as its opponent.

Main risk

The Copa Libertadores rarely lacks tension, but Friday night at the Estadio Atanasio Girardot arrives with the air of a club fighting itself as much as its opponent.

Key Data Signals

Independiente Medellin Win evidence

Flamengo's attacking power is undeniable with 61 goals this season, but defensive lapses have seen them concede late.

Independiente Medellin have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 7 for Flamengo.

Flamengo have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.67 conceded per match, which helps the Independiente Medellin Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Independiente Medellin Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Independiente Medellin5.2
    Avg corners for
    Flamengo4.33
    Independiente Medellin8
    Avg total corners
    Flamengo9.33
    Independiente Medellin2.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Flamengo0.67
    Independiente Medellin12
    Avg shots
    Flamengo17
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 55% · edge -4.9 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
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    Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 46%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Independiente Medellin1.2
    Avg goals scored
    Flamengo2.33
    Independiente Medellin1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Flamengo0.67
    Independiente Medellin80%
    BTTS rate
    Flamengo67%
    Independiente Medellin40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Flamengo33%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 27% · edge +49.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
    1.33
    Check odds @ 1.33
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 25% · edge +10 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Independiente Medellin to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Independiente Medellin

    WLDWD
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 1L
    01 May 2026H Cusco1-0
    17 Apr 2026A Flamengo1-4
    09 Apr 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-1
    13 Mar 2026H Juventud2-1
    06 Mar 2026A Juventud1-1

    Flamengo

    DWW
    Last 52W 1D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 0L
    30 Apr 2026A Estudiantes L.P.1-1
    17 Apr 2026H Independiente Medellin4-1
    09 Apr 2026A Cusco2-0
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 25% · edge +10 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.78
    Check odds @ 1.78
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Independiente Medellin wins
    0Draws
    1Flamengo wins
    17 Apr 2026Flamengo v Independiente Medellin4-1
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 25% · edge +10 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Independiente Medellin to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    CONMEBOL Libertadores

    Independiente Medellin9
    Played
    Flamengo5
    Independiente Medellin1.2
    Avg goals for
    Flamengo2.2
    Independiente Medellin1.2
    Avg goals against
    Flamengo0.4
    Independiente Medellin2
    Clean sheets
    Flamengo3
    Market aligned with main pickIndependiente Medellin to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 35% vs implied 25% · edge +10 pts
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Load more odds for this section
    Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Season data supports Independiente Medellin to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Flamengo16651012
    3Independiente Medellin76213-5
    CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5
    33%Flamengo Over 2.5
    5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Independiente Medellin sit at 40% and Flamengo sit at 33% with the H2H average at 5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Independiente Medellin v Flamengo prediction

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    Betting context

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