Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin

CONMEBOL Libertadores | Wed 27 May, 01:30

Estudiantes L.P. v Independiente Medellin Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

face Independiente Medellin in CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wed 27 May, 01:30. come in with 6 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Independiente Medellin have 7 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens. In this competition context, game state, selection calls and recent rhythm matter more than a simple table position.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Cards

At 1.8, Over 3.5 Cards implies roughly 56%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 71%.
Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Independiente Medellin sit at 2.2.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 71% for Over 3.5 Cards sits against roughly 56% implied by the current price. Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Independiente Medellin sit at 2.2.

Model chance vs price71% model chance against roughly 56% implied

Strong positive

Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Independiente Medellin.Visible data support

Positive

Price sensitivityEdge +15 pts

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 3.5 Cards is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Independiente Medellin sit at 2.2. The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Cards evidence

Have the higher yellow-card average at 4, while Independiente Medellin sit at 2.2.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Cards notes

Compare both yellow-card averages before treating the card line as value.
Check whether match pressure is likely to create fouls and recovery challenges.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Estudiantes L.P.4.2

Avg corners for

Independiente Medellin3.6

Estudiantes L.P.7.2

Avg total corners

Independiente Medellin6.6

Estudiantes L.P.4

Avg yellow cards

Independiente Medellin2.2

Estudiantes L.P.13.4

Avg shots

Independiente Medellin10.4

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 63%

2.1

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 29%

Check odds @ 2

Over 3.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Estudiantes L.P.1

Avg goals scored

Independiente Medellin1.2

Estudiantes L.P.1

Avg goals conceded

Independiente Medellin2

Estudiantes L.P.80%

BTTS rate

Independiente Medellin60%

Estudiantes L.P.20%

Over 2.5 goals

Independiente Medellin60%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 64%

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 59%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 4

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts

1.8

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Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 38%

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

Independiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Over 3.5 Cards is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Estudiantes L.P.

LDDWD

Last 51W 3D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 3D 1L

21 May 2026A Flamengo0-1

06 May 2026A Cusco1-1

30 Apr 2026H Flamengo1-1

14 Apr 2026H Cusco2-1

09 Apr 2026A Independiente Medellin1-1

Independiente Medellin

WLWLD

Last 52W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 3D 2L

21 May 2026A Cusco3-2

08 May 2026H Flamengo0-3

01 May 2026H Cusco1-0

17 Apr 2026A Flamengo1-4

09 Apr 2026H Estudiantes L.P.1-1

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

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Independiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%

3.3

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Independiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.5

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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Estudiantes L.P. wins

1Draws

0Independiente Medellin wins

09 Apr 2026Independiente Medellin v Estudiantes L.P.1-1

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts

4.33

Check odds @ 4.33

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Independiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

DrawBet365 guide price · model 30%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

The head-to-head sample gives context for BTTS Yes, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

CONMEBOL Libertadores

Estudiantes L.P.8

Played

Independiente Medellin9

Estudiantes L.P.1.3

Avg goals for

Independiente Medellin1.2

Estudiantes L.P.0.8

Avg goals against

Independiente Medellin1.2

Estudiantes L.P.2

Clean sheets

Independiente Medellin2

Best odds for this sectionIndependiente Medellin Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts

3.3

Check odds @ 3.3

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Independiente Medellin to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

5.25

Check odds @ 5.25

Estudiantes L.P. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Estudiantes L.P. Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Season data supports Independiente Medellin Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Estudiantes L.P.	9	6	2	3	1	1
3	Independiente Medellin	7	6	2	1	3	-5

CONMEBOL Libertadores standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Estudiantes L.P. Over 2.5

60%Independiente Medellin Over 2.5

2H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Estudiantes L.P. sit at 20% and Independiente Medellin sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Estudiantes L.P. v Independiente Medellin Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin

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Football Stats Hub

Estudiantes L.P. v Independiente Medellin Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Cards

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Estudiantes L.P.

Independiente Medellin

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